Heath Slocum - Marc Leishman
|15-04-2012, 18:00||Heath Slocum - Marc Leishman
MARC LEISHMAN TO TIE WITH HEATH SLOCUM @ 8/1 RBC HERITAGE 2-BALLFinal result: 1 - 0
Profit: 0.00 - 3 = -3
Final round 2-ball value bets:
Boo Weekley to beat Zach Johnson @ 11/8
Zach Johnson plays with Boo Weekley in the final round, both holding an outside chance of catching the leaders. Certainly if Johnson repeats his 3rd round performance and shoots 5-under, he has a real chance. But I fancy Boo Weekley to shoot the lower score of the duo in the 4th round. Boo suffered injury that has affected his game and he has been in the golfing wilderness for the last couple of years. He looks well and truly back this week, and let's not forget this is a guy who won this tournament twice back-to-back in 2007 & 2008. I think he'll shoot 70 or better tomorrow and that may be enough to win this bet.
The rest of the bets follow the same strategy, which I know is profitable (in the long run). At this stage of the tournament, pairings are empirically closely matched. But often, the scoring pattern of players in individual rounds will be closely matched too. So for example, let's say a pair of players share the same 3-round aggregate of 212. Player A's total came from rounds of 74, 70, and 68 whereas Player B's total came from 68, 68, and 76. So, whilst both players have the same aggregate score - they haven't shot the same score on any day and there is signficant variation between their indiviudal round scores. Now look at the following example, again both players have shot 212 for 3 rounds, and their individual rounds scores look like this: Player A = 70+72+70 and player B = 72+70+70. The likelihood of a TIED game is much higher than in the frist example, and yet the odds on a TIE is priced by the bookmakers as a flat 8/1. There is great value in this type of bet.
Using the above method, there is a real standout bet in the form of Slocum versus Leishman. But I've also widened the variation threshold to 2 shots to capture a few other 2-balls.
Brandt Snedeker to TIE with Kevin Na @ 8/1
Bookies love 2-ball bets. In the earlier rounds where 3-balls prevail, dead heat rules apply. In 2-ball bets, they still create a c. 100% book on both players and then have the tie bet as their edge. At the top of the leaderboard more than further down, players play steadily and drop fewer shots. They are closely matched and their per-round scoring is more even with less variation around par than in lower matches. Snedeker and Na were paired together yesterday and tied the game. 8/1 about that happening tomorrow is good value.
Brian Davis to TIE with Billy Mayfair @ 8/1
Closely matched players who are unlikely to trailblaze or collapse tomorrow. Identical scores in Round 1, stroke difference in rounds 2 and 3 just 2 shots and 1 shot. Good value.
Vaughan Taylor to TIE with Chez Reavie @ 8/1
Identical scores yesterday. No more than 2 shots dispersion in earlier rounds.
Heath Slocum to TIE with Marc Leishman @ 8/1
Bookies may just get burned here by pricing all game TIEs at same odds of 8/1. Fact is Slocum and Leishman have shot identical scores in ALL 3 rounds!! AND the score has either been 71 (twice) or 70, in other words, their game is steady and if they played 100 rounds here, I bet the distribution would be something like 50% around 71. This could be an inspired bet!
Jason Bohn to TIE with Matt Kuchar @ 8/1
Shot identical scores yesterday and no more than 2 shots between respective scores in earlier rounds.
John Daly to TIE with Hunter Haas @ 8/1
Not the bet one would expect as these two guys are usually volatile, but this week they have scored identically in round 2 and just 1 shot difference in their round 1 & 3 scores.
We only need one game to be TIED to return a profit...
Posted on: 15.04.2012, 11.31 CET (Viewed: 127 times)
Match starts on: April 15, 2012
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