Chelsea - Barcelona

BARCELONA TO WIN @ 1.73

Barcelona face a big week with the first leg of their Champions League semi final away to Chelsea on Wednesday, quickly followed by another El Classico against Real Madrid at home this weekend and it's two fixtures which will go along way to determining the success of their season. Their recent form is excellent with 11 straight domestic victories taking them back to within 4 points of their bitterest rivals at the top of La Liga and the Catalans look like their hitting form right at the business end of the season which is ominous for Chelsea

Chelsea to be fair have shown a marked improvement in results under interim coach Di Matteo with only 1 defeat from the 12 matches he's taken charge of and the players definitely look happier since the sacking of AVB. Sundays demolition of Tottenham was their finest display to date despite the controversial 2nd goal and it's very clear that the Chelsea players, staff and supporters are now united and all pulling in the one direction but the task facing them on Wednesday night for me is a step beyond anything they've achieved in recent weeks

Chelsea offcourse have home advantage here and have only lost 1 of their 5 home Champions League fixtures against Barcelona, winning 3 and drawing 1. Barcelona have also shown a slightly vulnerable side when away from home recently, despite managing to keep winning, as they've conceeded in 10 of their last 15 fixtures whilst Chelsea have at least scored in 14 of their last 15 home fixtures, loosing just 1 during that sequence - so that provides reason for optimism

Whilst the stats can provide Chelsea fans with some reason for optimism the Barcelona team sheet won't and with the Catalans now on a mission to retain their Champions League crown I can't see this current Chelsea team being capable of stopping them. I doubt even the most optimistic of Chelsea fans would claim that they can prevail here without a home win, which I feel plays into the hands of Barcelona. Chelsea simply can't afford to sit back and keep this first leg tight and hope to sneak it 1-0 or settle for a draw as this won't be enough to take the Nou Camp in a fortnights time and Chelsea know this. I feel if they're to stand any chance of progressing to the final then they must win this first leg by 2 clear goals and I just can't see this happening. Even a 1-0 with the benefit of keeping a clean sheet I don't feel would be enough and feel Barcelona are more than capable of overturning that type of first leg result on home soil so Chelsea must be brave here and attempt to replicate Inter Milan's 3-1 first leg home win over Barcelona 2 years ago which proved decisive

I genuinely believe the Chelsea revival is exaggerated by the quality of the teams they've faced during this run and their biggest game saw them loose a lead deep into the 2nd half at Man City when truly tested. Their triumph over Tottenham on Sunday was their best display but this is a Tottenham team now in free fall and Barcelona won't permit them the same freedom that the Tottenham players did at Wembley. They also benefited from a huge slice of luck with their 2nd goal on Sunday and if the Ref had awarded a penalty to Tottenham and sent Czeh off instead of allowing advantage for Tottenham's goal then it could've been a totally different game

Overall my strategy here is to back the away win with a big stake as I'm confident Barcelona will just be too strong and also put a smaller stake on an away win by 2 clear goals to get some value

My two tips therefore are:

Barcelona to win with 7 points stake @ 1.73 with Betfred &
Barcelona to win with by 2 clear goals with 3 points stake @ 3.55 with Bet 365

Good Luck

1

Supporters

1. luckygirl34

Posted on: 15.04.2012, 22.11 CET (Viewed: 480 times)
Match starts on: April 18, 2012

7/10 on Barcelona at 1.73 with Betfred (Fixed Odds)

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Tipped at

1.73