Toulouse - Montpellier over 1.5 ( 0.03 value)
Montpellier - 1st
Toulouse - 7th (3 points away from Europe League qualification)
Looking at their last 4 matches we have:
Toulouse home: scored 7 goals and conceded 1 goals
Toulouse : scored 5 goals and conceded 9 goals
Montpellier away : scored 5 goals and conceded 6 goals
Montpellier : scored 7 goals and conceded 4 goals
Montpellier is 1st with 2 points ahead of 2nd Paris SG. Toulouse is 7th with 3 points away from 4th to qualify for the Europe league.
Toulouse scored 7 goals in their last 4 home games, 3 of them over 1.5 goals. They have a good defense since they conceded only 1. Montpellier scored 5 in their last 4 away games, all 4 were over 1.5 goals. They conceded 6 as well, making 3 of their games over 2.5 goals.
Toulouse good defense at home with a decent attack power, Montpellier away tries to scores at least 1 goal per game but because of this often they also concede 1 or more goals.
Average goal per match is 2.375. Using poisson it gives us odds of 1.46
Pinnacle is offering 1.49 for over 1.5, that's a 0.03 difference. small value, but still value.