David Ferrer - Milos Raonic
|28-04-2012, 12:00||David Ferrer - Milos Raonic
League: ATP Tour
FERRER TO BE RUNNER-UP SUNDAY AT ODDS 1.92Final result: 2 - 0
Profit: 13.44 - 7 = 6.44
Just to make it clear, that's a Ferrer 2 - 0 Raonic tip.
Semi-Finals at Barcelona and a huge game here. Ferrer won Krajinovic, Montanes and Feliciano Lopez to get here. Losing a set only to Lopez at Tie Braak, and saving 2 match points at 4 x 5 on the second set.
Raonic beat Falla, Andreev, Almagro and Murray, all of them in straight sets.
The head to head between them is a 3-0 Ferrer and the only meet they had at clay ended 6-1 6-3 Ferrer at Monte Carlo 2011.
About their playing style, Raonic is a big server being a hard hitter here at Barcelona. Things are getting better than even him can thought, I guess. He isn't giving unforced errors and is keeping a good enough 1st serve % in. He doesn't stand long rallys by the baseline so he always try to attack and finish the point earlier, most of the times finding impossible angles but he's finding even the impossible ones here at Barcelona. But, I guess here comes the end of the line and it has a name: David Ferrer.
Ferrer is a fantastic clay specialist and I can say only Nadal is capable of keeping a long-term results against Ferrer at clay. This year, we have a 16-1 at clay, losing only to Thomaz Bellucci (Yeah, I'm still trying to understand it as brazilian). He has a fantastic mental game, great regularity from the baseline and holds a decent service. I guess he seems likely to have more difficult against players that goes often to the net, trying the volley. Hard hitters as Raonic is being (PLEASE, IS BEING, NOT IS) can get in trouble since he can use depth balls enough to make them stay as far as possible and if you start to attack and mistake, things get much easier.
Well, if Raonic keeps the level he's been playing, Ferrer will need to serve well and win tie breaks. But, if Ferrer is good enough with deep enough balls, I don't see Raonic standing a chance here. I don't see 2-1 to any of them, I really believe it will be 2-0 to one of them and for me, Ferrer is really the best one here.
Posted on: 28.04.2012, 05.28 CET (Viewed: 685 times)
Match starts on: April 28, 2012
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No! Your comment was really good, you had a good point and I agree, it was too risky for the odds. I didn't know about this coach part, well, it is something that can change things a lot, he is definitely better on groundstrokes. Yeah, he screwed up on the 1st tie break, lost his mind for a while and it costs a lot. About his serve, he got near 60% 1st in percentage and 70% points won with 1st if I'm not wrong. That's a little under what he usually gets. By the way, I'm sorry for grammatical errors, I'm not that fluent as you can see hahaha
Raonic played very bad at the tie-break from the 1st set, that costed him the game. Ferrer admitted it himself to spanish TV, that he wasn't on his best moment and that he needs tough opponents to reach it. Raonic has improved since he aded his new coach to his team. He is spanish and a clay player, makes him train here in Barcelona. Must have changed the canadian for sure. About the breaks... well, Raonic knows his weapon is the serve. He was serving seconds as firsts all the time. He knows he needs that great serve to get the edge. Just a few players can steadily serve at 230 km/h without missing too many 1st serves. That is amazing from him. I'm happy you won the bet, as I said I had no money on such a thing. I used some more strange markets and still won. I think I'll wait for next week on tennis now! haha btw, don't get my arguments in a bad way. I just wanted to start a productive discussion, or constructive criticism call it however you want. I feel it is good to see other tipsters' opinions, that's what I like about this website.
Yeah, I get your point and it's easy to say before the game is ended.I guess I underrated Raonic once again, but today he was near the Raonic I expect. He still found some winners, most of them on the 3rd ball serving but he gave a lot of free points, especially from the baseline. Ferrer had at least 5 chances to break but most of them he saved with aces or great services. I'm kind of believing Raonic improved his game but I'd like to wait a little more to say it's not just a great form here. But, even if Raonic had a great day, I think things would end up the same away, since he confirmed all his services the entire match and even if he improved, with Ferrer holding a decent matchup, he wouldn't stand the baseline rallys because of his style and physical attributes. He won't ever be that fast. Well I watched Lopez vs Ferrer and I would say it was more Lopez great game than Ferrer mistakes. Lopez is really tough to play against when he has a great day, since he has a great service, variety shots with good slices and volleys. The bet was just because I couldn't see Raonic winning a set here, but maybe I was wrong. I'm just happy it worked.
I'm sorry but I don't like this result. The bet is perfectly argumentated, I just have a different idea of the match. Simply, Raonic can push a tie-break just by serving. And in his game against Murray, the scottish tried to make Raonic go up to the net and play from there, and he did surprisingly good in my opinion. Ferrer needs to play on the net to beat Raonic, because the canadian doesn't know how to do the pass-through balls, or whatever you call them (passing someone at the net). In my opinion Raonic has a lot more chances than people are giving him. Ferrer has been playing a lot worse since his loss against Bellucci. It is not reflected on his results that much, but simply take yesterday's game against Feliciano. If Feliciano had been Raonic, Ferrer would be out of the tournament right now. Feliciano just wasted too many opportunities and Ferrer was handing them all to him. As I said, since that loss against Bellucci he has been playing worse. He needs to play against someone of his strenght, and that is not Raonic, that is Nadal. I do hope he wakes up because I want him on full form for Roland Garros, so I hope he wins today and reaches finals against Nadal, to wake him up. Raonic can win this if he sees the opponent's weaknesses, but will he?