Croatia - To qualify within Group C
|10-06-2012, 20:45||Croatia - To qualify within Group C
League: EURO 2012, International
CROATIA TO QUALITY FOR THE QUARTER FINALS (GROUP C) AT ODDS 2.75Final result: 0 - 1
Profit: 0.00 - 8 = -8
Well, being Croatian this one is a logical and patriotic choice. For all the "neutral" bettors out there, I will explain the reasons behind this choice.
First of all, VALUE! All you who are following me are already aware of the fact that I'm always on board while talking about value. The odds for Spain are around 1.10, for Italy around 1.65 and for the Republic of Ireland around 5.00.
Let's take a closer look to all four teams within this group.
I will tell you nothing new if I say that Spain is not only top favorite to win this group, in fact, they are among the top favorites to win this EURO 2012 competition. Spain is playing the best football in Europe and coach del Bosque has found an ideal mix between tica-taca and solid defense. Good thing for Croatia is that they will face Spain in the 3rd round of this group. If Spain would be already qualified, they could possibly field a "B" team and Croatia would have good chances to obtain a point.
Cesare Prandelli's Italy is in a phase of transformation. They could qualify with ease within their group, mostly because main treat Serbia was messing around by playing way under their own abilities. With all the respect, but Slovenia, Northern Ireland or Estonia are "dwarf's" compared with Italy and the top European teams. Italy will have to start against Spain. If they should lose their opening match, they will already be under huge pressure in the 2nd match against Croatia, as they will need a win in that match to qualify. More details about Italy and winning against Croatia later in this preview .....
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
Trappatoni and his "blank bottle" team from the green Island. The Irish people have all my sympathies and are for sure among the top 3 friendly people for every Croat. If this would be a competition of the best European beer drinkers, Ireland and Croatia would advance for sure within this group. I'm already looking forward to this opening match against "our" friends from the green Island. About the team itself. The Irish team is well-known for its fighting spirit and is a though to beat team for everyone. However, their technical skills and abilities are limited. With all the due respect, but a troop mainly consisting of 60% English Championship footballers build around Irish legend Robbie Keane is simply not enough to compete on this high level.
Main weapon of Croatia is for sure their offense. With in top-form playing Jelavic (Everton), Ivica Olic (Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg), Mandzukic (Wolfsburg), Eduardo (Shakhtar) and Ivan Perisic (Dortmund) Croatia's national team coach and former player legend Slaven Bilic will "only" have headache which one of the aforementioned two strikers he should field. The midfield is very creative with Modric (Tottenham), Srna (Shaktar, RW) and Kranjcar as the stars of the team each of those is capable to decide a match on its own. The most critical part of this team will be once more the defense. Especially on the center positions with Lovren and Simunic I see huge problems. It is to hope that at least Vedran Corluka (Tottenham, RD) gets fit until the start of the EURO competition.
Now, for all who maybe aren't available of that fact. Croatia has 4.5 milion habitants, but missed just two major competitions since their independence back in 1992! That was the Euro 2000 when they failed to win the last match against Serbia (2-2) at home (Rep. of Ireland and Serbia qualified) and the WC 2010 in South Africa while failing to beat Ukraine (2-2) also at home in the 2nd last match of the qualifiers. In all other (8 of 10) major competitions, Croatia participated with the 3rd place at the WC 1998 (France) and the 1/4 final 2008 (Austria and Switzerland) as the two major successes. I would say that's quite and achievement for such a "small" country.
Now for the stats and figures behind the thesis, Croatia to qualify.
Game 1 - against the Republic of Ireland will be the toughest game for Croatia without any doubt. It may sound weird, but Croatia always has problems against good organized and mostly defending teams. That will not be different in this game. The Croatian mentality is simply made up that way, that they bring the best matches against the top nations like Germany, Brazil, Argentina, France, Italy etc. My calculation from this game is one point as I see that one finishing in a "friendly" draw between two friendly nations. In the six mutual matches between this two teams, Ireland won 2, Croatia 1 and three finished in a friendly draw. However, 5 of the six matches were played in Ireland and just two of them were international qualifying matches with each team winning their home games within the EURO 2000 qualifying phase (2-0 in Dublin, 1-0 in Zagreb). The other four (1-3-0) were friendlies.
Game 2 - will be the easiest one and I've already calculated three points against Italy. Italy never won against Croatia! The first victory against our neighbours was back in 1995 within the qualifying group for the EURO 1996 in England. Croatia won with 2-1 at Palermo! The second leg in Split ended in a 1-1 draw. The next Italian debacle came at the WC 2002 in South Corea and Japan. Croatia won thanks to two goals of Miki Rapaic and Ivica Olic with 2-1 (Kashima, Japan) overcoming a 0-1 deficit within just 3 minutes. However, Croatia failed to qualify while losing their last match against Ecuador with 0-2. So much about "our" mentality against "lowly" teams. The last setback for Italy against Croatia dates back to the friendly match played in Livorno back in August 2006 were Croatia won 2-0 thanks to two goals of Eduardo and Modric. To sum up. In five mutual encounters, Croatia won three times and both played at Croatia ended in a draw. Rest assured that this trend will continue also at the EURO 2012.
Game 3 - The last match against Spain will be a deciding game for Croatia and I hope that Spain will already be qualified by winning their two opening games against Italy and the Republic of Ireland. In such a case, I see Croatia obtaining one point which should be enough to secure the 2nd place in this group, bearing in mind that Croatia would finish with 5 points, while Spain would win this group obtaining 7 points. Italy and Ireland could get at most four points with the above calculations. The head-to-head statistic between Croatia and Spain looks like this: Spain won 2 times, Croatia once, and one match finished in a 0-0 draw. All four matches had been friendly matches, so that this one will be the first competitive match between both sides. Croatia won the first mutual encounter back in 1994 with 2-0 in Sevilla thanks to two goals of Robert Prosinecki and Davor Suker. That was the 2nd match of Croatia at all after the independence declaration back in 1991 in middle of the war at the Balkan.
My own "simulation" of the expected results in this group:
Spain 1 - 0 Italy
Republic Ireland 0 - 0 Croatia
Italy 1 - 2 Croatia
Spain 3 - 1 Republic Ireland
Italy 1 - 1 Republic Ireland
Croatia 1 - 1 Spain (B)
"Simulated" standings within Group C:
1. Spain 2-1-0 5:2 +3 7 pts
2. Croatia 1-2-0 3:2 +1 5 pts
3. Republic of Ireland 0-2-1 2:4 -2 2 pts
4. Italy 0-1-2 2:4 -2 1 pts
I hope you enjoyed this "short" introduction and simulation of Group C. May the winners be yours .....
High stakes 8/10 on Croatia to qualify for the quarter-finals.
Posted on: 03.05.2012, 11.44 CET (Viewed: 17861 times)
Last edited: 05.05.2012, 00.24 CET by Joe
Match starts on: June 10, 2012
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We don't need luck - we would need a wonder! So - Bilic comming to Russia? At this moment I am in Russia. But Stimac - if it is the Stimac I know (former player, I think, he played in the defense), it is a good choice, as well. So, it remains interesting what is going on in football. But - to the qualifiers - Croatia will probably be firyst and Serbia will be fighting with Scottland and Belgium about the seccond place in the group. As I know, the seccond teams of each group will be playing play-outs. Isn't it so? Macedonia and Wales will fight about the place number 5. Macedonia will have good chances to win 4 or 5 points in this group, I suppose...
Bilic is going to Russia, next coach will (as meady write) be Igos Stimac. Good luck to Macedonia in qualifications!
Yes - and I hope, Croatia will not make a mistake and change Slaven Bilic. He did really a good job. Against Italy and against Spain this Croatian team showed great matches. Bilic is not able to shoot the goals... But the tactic was exactly what it had to be. And against Spain I think that Croatia was not far away of winning the match... As I am Macedonian - I will watch the match Macedonia - Croatia in Skopje, in the qualifiers. I hope to meet Olic and Bilic and to spend them a beer or two... BOK Croatia!
I know, at least we showed great play, team spirit and pride! This generation is great, young players, they have enough time to show what they can do
to maksy: as I used to be a grat Hajduk Split fan, I like Croatia. Yes, there were two penalties, but at least one. And with this one penalty given Croatia would go into the quarter finals. But yesterday we had it once again in the match Ukraine - England. The referees didn't see the regular goal for Ukraine. That's football. We can do nothing.
To Mafioso: Hahaha - yes Mafioso! That's right! So, good luck to England. I have the bet - England European Champion, so if comes like this - and I hope and believe you understand football - then I will get 1.600 €. It's not that much, but 4 times more, then I put in. If Czech Republic or France become European Champion, I get 10.000 €. If Germany becomes European Champion, I get 800 €. Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy are my risk. Then I would lose 400 € this time. That's OK. My favourites (Denmark, Russia, Ukraine and Croatia) are out. So - nothing to do. That's football.
I cant believe that 5 regerees cant see penalty two times...
Tihomir,i say Croatia go home and EnglaND NO!sOW I UNDERSTAND SOCCER,AJJAJAJAA
Sometimes it happens - a referee can "steal a game" - as you call it. But that's not so often. So, they are enough matches you can bet "in a normal way". So - I could bet that you didn't understand either what football is, nor what betting is. It looks at least due to your comments like that. Ha ha ha...
man,why you betting if you think that the referees stolen the games?
@crator: Yes, I watched it now on internet several times: the goal seems to be OK. But at least one penalty - Ramos, and then we would have had another match... @mafioso: no, I don't think so, Croatia would have played a good match against the seccond of group D, but that will not be England, that will be France, I suppose. But - against England I don't think, they would have lost at all. Nobody knows. Te stay with the reality: it is a fact that Croatia played very well and if they had not this arbitor, they would stand in the quarter finals. I am very sorry about that. So - now good luck to Italy!
The goal was fine, but there were two very clear penalties for Croatia. One from Ramos and second one from Busquets. Now, tell me what the hell are the 4th and 5th referee for...
the goal was not offside,Spain deserve to win.if Croatia win the group,they gonna meet england,and England make another 5-1 with Bilic,my opinion
Bravo Croatia - good play, but - as I told you - it was very hard to play THE THIRD MATCH against Spain. If it wasn't the third match, maybe they played draw against Spain. So, all together I told you: 1. Spain doesn't win against Italy 2. Croatia doesn't win against Italy 3. They HAVE TO beat Ireland, what I am happy, they did, if not, they wouldn't have 4 points now 4. It will be very HARD to play the third match against Spain, because Spain will HAVE TO WIN against Croatia - so it was. If they wouldn't win, they would stay just at the seccond place, which means, they would have to play against Germany in the semi-final. Nevertheless you can be proud of your Croatian team, they played so good, and my musician friend Bilic said at the end the wright words to the arbitors, who gave three points to Spain (the goal was off-side)...
ma guarda che hai perso questa scommesa comme io ti ho deto,aajaaaaaja Arrivederci,Croatia go home and you should give me 100 bucks for my good tip::)))
Ma guarda che fortunati siete stati!
Bravo Croatia! A wonderful match - a wonderfull atmosphere - that's football! Good luck and win against Spain!
Ma guarda che Italia vince oggi,hai perso,mica |croatia e una buona squadra :_) arrivederci croatia!Croatia go home,england no!:) ajajjajaja
yeah right.. you and similar "people" like you divide Croatia when we all should be united. I could say lots of things about dinamo but this is not the place and time to fight..
croatia qualified only if they have players from Dinamo Zagreb,best team ever in Croatia,i hope that the players from Hajduk don't play,because they play very bad.Dinamo forever!
Good luck buddy, GO CROATIA!
@Tihomir No need to discuss matters further. I wish you all the best and enjoy your 10.000 EUR net winnings or whatever. You're simply the best and I apologize I even replied to you casting my doubts on your "prophetic" skills. I'm simply out of your league, again my deepest apologies. Arrivederci to you too!
And ... as living in Karlsruhe - and being translator - of course I know Slaven Bilic... And it was me to make the contract between Olic and Bayern... OK? Good luck.
By the way - excuse me again. I cannot either explain this. But at standing of 0:2 I just put one euro on draw (Ireland (U21) - Italy (U21)...
Excuse me - once again. The main point was: I hear everybody saying: Croatia is lucky to play the third game against Spain. This is, what you may probably need to turn upside down - and those were my words - nothing more. I am saying: it will be hard to play against Spain, because they will have to win, because I think, they won't win the first two matches. I cannot explain it. It's just my opinion. Good luck to everybody!
To crator - "normally" is Spain to win against Ireland and Croatia, and even the last years again Italy, too. So in my text "normally" was ment like this - of they maybe don't win again Italy and / or again Ireland, THEN they will HAVE to win against Croatia. This is what I tried to say. Excuse me my English... Yes - you are wright - I put everything upside down. This is my method. OK - and "many french people thought so", I cannot agree, because those days I was watching the whole tournament in France (normally I am living in Karlsruhe, Germany - it's 15 kilometers from the French border...) - and they were so proud of France being world champion and put all their money on France. So - it was really nobody than me to "turn it upside down" - and this is what happened. But - excuse me anyway - I didn'z mean to disturb your atmosrhere in this forum. If u don't like my opinion, so, please, don't read it.
I say Spain is not going to win against Italy because I think that the gloriuos times of Spain and Spanish soccer are gone. The same was what I did with Barcelona against Chelsea and it worked. About my "prophetic abilities" - I use them to get money. So don't look at my minus, look at the money I won. If the first one who said the banana is to be yellow was right, he didn't have to know, how to explain it. Good luck to you and the other 2.299.999 coaches of Croatia! And excuse me if my writing is not as "normal participiants" write here. But it doesn't matter to me, because they don't win 10.000 euro...
@Crator. Mate, I have absolutely nothing to add here. You've said everything.
@Tihomir Wow! Let me go through your thoughts again here, just a couple of minutes, please. Thank you. Ok. Here we go. It's nothing unusual that different tipsters have different opinions about a given outcome, so I really appreciate your opinion. You may be very close as Macedonian, but you for sure lack some insights about the mentality of our national team here. I'm one of the 2.3 milion coaches in Croatia, and I do know very well the mentality and the abilities of this team, including the thoughts of Slaven Bilic. Spain - Italy. What makes you so sure that Italy doesn't lose against Spain, any insight's you may want to share with us here? Just saying that it will be so, doesn't make me happy at all. I've written already a preview about that game, sharing some insight's with the rest of us why I "believe" in a different outcome there. Croatia - Ireland. Nobody HAS TO anything, except to die some day or another. Why shouldn't we HAVE TO WIN against Ireland, if we can get our 4 or more points also against Italy and Spain? That first match is as important for the brave fighting Irish as for our team. I've also written a in deep preview about that one. Again, you haven't shared any further information why do you believe in a different outcome there. Saying that the Banana should be yellow, doesn't implies that's also true, or do I miss something there? With all the respect Sir, but your prophetic abilities doesn't convince me, at least not a look at your yield (-9.9%). That said, I would really appreciate any insight thoughts from your part, before you turnaround everything up side down in that group. Last but not least. Obscure stat. Croatia never lost to Italy, and second, Croatia never lost a 2nd match at any major tournament they participated so far, being that a World cup, or a EURO competition. Thank you for your comment. I'm looking forward to compare your prophetic abilities with mine's in regards to the outcome of this group. Cheers! PS: Crator, I'll come back to you as soon as I've read me through your comment as well. Everything once after another, it's getting too much for me right now, as I've 7 new notifications in my profile ....
Nobody except you put 100€ on Greece, we could agree with that. About France being lost... many french said so, because they knew the state of the team. Just... Tihomir, how can you say Spain will lose against Italy, then lose against Ireland, then "normally Spain wins against Croatia"? Doesn't Spain "normally win" against Italy and Ireland too? Or am I missing something? Wpuldn't Ireland "normally" be the last in this group? So my point is... If you want to throw prophecies, do it, but it sounds like you are "predicting" the most rare outcomes in every case just so you can come back and say "I'm a big winner!". Not like I want Spain to win the EURO again, but tell me solid arguments on them being last on groupstage instead of saying. -"Italy beats Spain..." -"Trapattoni is Trapattoni...", when this man doesn't win a TOP trophy since 1997's Bundesliga with Bayern. 2005 if you count portuguese league. -"no way of winning against Italy" is just... not good enough. Just saying that, in my opinion, whatever team Spain brings to the Olympic they would easily win against whatever team Ireland brings to the EURO. Poglavica said it all with "60% English Championship" players. Those are my 2 cents here. Croatia has big chances to qualify, specially because, to me, Spain is a big favourite against Italy. Their 'full roster' play is just too much to beat. In fact, we could see a draw in this game, but if the game is fair Spain will take it with their overall better football skills.
Wow! Do they need to play at all? Your "short" but beautiful introduction was exciting enough... So - first I disagree with Spain is going to beat Italy. Either Italy wins or we will have the first draw in this group. Seccond - Croatia HAS TO WIN against Ireland. So, they will have the pressure already in their first game, mainly if they know the result of the first match (Italy beats Spain...). I hope (me, I am Macedonian, so Croatia is closer to me than any other side in this group) they are able to win this match. So - round two: Italy and Croatia - no way of winning against Italy! Just forget it! I hope they can win a point. Spain against Ireland - everything is possible. Even Spain loses their seccond match! (Trapattoni is Trapattoni... He could become the STAR of this group...) So - we have the third round: Normaly Spain is going to win against Croatia. Trapattoni against Italy? If both teams need just one point to qualify, they will share the points! So, if Croatia wants to qualify, they will have to beat Spain as well... I will put money on: Spain will be last in this group. 1. Italy 2. Croatia or Ireland If it comes like this, so - take care of Croatia or Ireland! They can do the same Greece did in 2004 (when I put 100 € on - Greece to win the tournament and got 10.000 € back!) Yes, dear readers, in such things I am a very "dangerous" prophet... (Nobody except me told, France will be last in the group with Denmark... but they were...)
4-4-2 (4-3-1-2) Pletikosa - Srna (RB),Corluka(CD),Simunic(CD),Strinic(LB) Perisic(RM),Dujmovic(DM),Modric(CM),Kranjcar(LM Jelavic (ST), Eduardo (ST) Possible shifts of Srna, Corluka and Vida Srna would move to the RM position and Corluka as right-wing back. Vida would move to the central defender position. Additional strikers; Mandzukic, and Olic. Illicevic can play as left midfielder too. Schildenfeld is the only alternative as central defender. It's the weakest part of this team, but with Srna as right back that problem would be solved, at least against the big names. I expect Srna to start from the right midfield and Corluka to move to the RB position as we will have to make the play against Ireland and we will need Srna's flanks from the outside. Pranjic and Rakitic will hopefully watch the EURO on TV, if Slaven Bilic isn't blinded of success ... That's it.
i do think it will be croatia and spain to go through hope ye guys go far!!
can you name out the croatia squad just interested to know as some of the players are unknown to us over here thanks!!!
Shay Given, Aston Villa, Championship material Sean St Ledger, Leicester City -> Championship Aiden McGeady, Spartak Moscow -> lower Premier league midfield at most Keith Andrews, West Brom -> almost relegated into the Championship Kevin Doyle, Wolves -> relegated to Championship Damien Duff, Fulham -> lower Premier league midfield club Richard Dunne, Aston Villa -> see Shay Given Glenn Whelan, Stoke City -> even lower then Fulham Paul McShanne, Hull City -> Championship Jonathan Walters, Stoke City -> see Whelan Darron Gibson, Everton -> bench player, Everton upper midfield club Stephen Hunt, Wolves -> Championship Darren O'Dea, free agent, on loan at Ipswich and Leeds, Championship Shane Long, WBA, again Championship level at most Simon Cox, WBA again Paul Green, free agent, former Derby County, Championship James McClean, Sunderland, finally we have found Premiership material here ..... David Forde (goalkeeper), Millwall, Championship Stephen Ward, Wolves again Championship Robbie Keane, the legend, playing at LA Galaxy. Forgive me if I forget someone to name here, but the above compilation looks pretty much as a 60% championship compilation, don't you think so? Agree with bars and best of luck!
Doyle, keane, duff, mcgeady, andrews, whelan, ward, dunne, st. ledger, o'shea, given. 1 championship player, 8 premiership, 1 russian premiership, 1 american league....60% championship players???? agreed we love the croatians it will be the biggest game of the group for the irish as well both in the bars and on the field best of luck to both!!!!
Yep, very quick fingers right now. Thanks again.
Changed date, quick fingers I presume
Joe. Please update the date to June 10. The time is ok. I've mistakenely selected the wrong month. Thanks. Regards, Poglavica
can't wait, i'll be cheering for "vatreni" :D