Power - E/w 2000 Guineas 15.10 Newmarket

POWER 1PT E/W @ 14/1

With the first classics of the flat season rapidly approaching, I have been pawing over the statistics for the 2,000 guineas in the last few days, in particular the ten year trends. It doesn't make particularly good reading for backers of the big favourite Camelot, who I am willing to oppose at cramped odds of 6/4. I have layed this horse to win a fair amount, and also backed the french challenger Abtaal at 14/1 a few weeks ago. The each-way value has all but evaporated so I'm drawn to Power as the next best each-way value in the race.

Breaking this race down into 2yo form, 3yo form, betting, pedigree and key race indicators, we can see the following patterns.

Re Pedigree:

The last ten winners' Sires were Irish (5), GB (4) or US (1). That's not really a surprise, except it would rule out french bred horses. In 7 of the last 10 renewals, the winner's Sire had also been placed in the English, Irish or French 2,000 guineas. Frankel was the exception to the rule that all the last 10 winning Sires had won a group 1 race at 6-8 furlongs.

Re overall record:

8 of 10 winners won on their first run as a 2yo
8 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut at Newmarket, Curragh or Gowran Park
8 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times before (other 2 were unbeaten)
9 of 10 winners had won 2 or more races
10 of 10 winners were placed last time out (and 8 won)
10 of 10 winners had their last run after preceding August
7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time
9 of 10 winners had won at group level
6 of 10 winners were first time out that year and interesting the remainder had WON one of the recognised guineas trials
9 of 10 winners had recorded a victory over 7-8F
4 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket

Re key 2yo races:

Dewhust winner Won 2, Placed 2
National Stakes winner (Power) Won 2, Placed 2
Gimcrack Stakes winner Won 1, Placed 0
Coventry Stakes winner Won 1, Placed 1
Washington Singer Stakes winner Won 1, Placed 0
Futurity Stakes winner Won 0, Placed 2
Mill Reef Stakes winner Won 0, Placed 2
Champagne Stakes winner Won 0, Placed 1
Superlative Stakes winner Won 0, Placed 1
Criterium winner Won 0, Placed 0
Racing Post Trophy winner Won 0, Placed 0
Tattersalls Stakes winner Won 0, Placed 0
National Stakes Winner Won 2, Placed 0
Railway Stakes Winer Won 2
Phoenix Stakes runner Won 2
Coventry stakes runner Won 2

Re Key 3yo Races

Greenham Stakes winner Won 1, Placed 2
Craven Stakes winner Won 1, Placed 2
Leopardstown 2000 Guineas trial winner Won 1, Placed 0
Prix Djebel winner Won 1, Placed 0

Only 4 of last 10 winners had run previously as 3yo - ALL 4 WON THAT RACE.

Leading Trainers

Aidan O’Brien Won 4, Placed 1
John Oxx Won 1, Placed 1 (from only 2 runners)
Mikel Delzangles Won 1, Placed 0 (1 runner)
Richard Hannon Won 0, Placed 4
Jim Bolger Won 0, Placed 2

Re. Starting Price

Favourite Won 2, Placed 3


Conclusions and Recommendation:

If you're one of the people that think Camelot is a sure-thing, consider this: Favourites have a poor record (and generally a poor record at Newmarket overall); In six attempts in the last decade, no Racing Post Trophy winner has won this race; His sire is the brilliant Montjeu who didn't win a group 1 over 7f/8f and has yet to sire a winner of a 2,000 guineas; Camelot is bred for middle distances and may be found out by a more sharply bred horse.

On the positive side, he is an unbeaten group winner; trained by leading Trainer Aidan O'Brien; and being out of Montjeu fits the irish-bred criterion; and he is having his first run of the year.

Camelot has been the talking horse of the last few months, but remember O'Brien's Rip Van Winkle, Hawk Wing and St Nicolas Abbey (SNA) got turned over as favourites. Camelot looks a similar type to SNA.

The other forgotten Aidan O'Brien runner, POWER has in my view a better profile fit than his more favoured stable mate. He has Newmarket experience which is a plus and will be ridden by Ryan Moore. He won the National Stakes, is by the highly successful Oasis Dream out of a 8.8f Dam so his pedigree is suited to 6f-1m races. It wouldn't be the first time, the O'Brien second string has come good - in fact, you'd have made a 17% LSP backing the "second string" O'Brien horse in this race.

Power ticks plenty of boxes:

Won National Stakes
Won over 7F or 8F
Won Coventry Stakes
Ran in Dewhurst Stakes
Trained in Ireland
Won on first run as a 2yo
Made racing debut at the Curragh
Has run at least 3 times before
Has won 2 or more races
Finished in the first 3 last time
Won at Group level

He should run a big race and has definite place chances at 14/1.

Another with positives who may upset the favourite is John Oxx's Born To Sea. He is a half-brother to Sea The Stars - and if he has half that horse's ability, he'd be backed off the boards. In the last decade, John Oxx has had two runners in the 2,000 Guineas resulting in a win and a 3rd. Born to Sea has only raced twice and was beaten by another O'Brien horse on his second start, but he ducked out of the stalls that day and retured injured so that run is best ignored.

With further rain forecast, the ground at Newmarket may yet have a big say in the outcome of the first colts classic although the track does tend to dry out well. Never the less, John Oxx is reported as saying he thinks it won't inconvenience his horse.

However, Born to Sea doesn't have that Group win which highlights his inexperience and the scale of improvement needed to win this race. Could make a place.

As I said at the outset, I like the prospects of Abtaal who - despite not fulfilling some of the historic criteria - looks to have a good chance. His trainer Jean-Claude Rouget sounded confident after Abtall was narrowly beaten by another guineas rival, French Fifteen, on his seasonal reappearance in the Prix Djebel at Maisons-Laffitte. But having seen that race, he clearly needed the run and will be a different proposition on Saturday. As a 2yo, Abtaal showed good speed when winning the Prix Thomas Bryon where French Fifteen was in arrears. It is usually the case that French raiders are overpriced by GB bookies, and 10/1 is still decent value.

For those wondering why I haven't picked out Roger Charlton's Top Offer who has been the subject of positive work vibes in the build-up to the race and Charlton regards him very highly indeed. Well the simple answer is: if Top Offer is capable of winning this race after the solitary run in a modest class maiden, then we'd be looking at a reincarnation of Dancing Brave...and I don't think that's going to happen. If he finishes in the top-6, he'll develop into a smart horse.

So in conclusion, I think Camelot is plenty short enough and should be taken on. I have suggested three alternatives: Power, Born To Sea, and Abtaal. At the prevailing prices, I'm going to suggest Power e/w @ 14/1 is the way to go.

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1. longtermprofits

Posted on: 03.05.2012, 18.21 CET (Viewed: 320 times)
Last edited: 07.06.2012, 00.46 CET by Joe
Match starts on: May 05, 2012

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