Richie Ramsay - Shaun Micheel
|05-05-2012, 08:00||Richie Ramsay - Shaun Micheel
RICHIE RAMSAY V SHAUN MICHEEL TIE @ 8/1Final result: 0 - 1
Profit: 0.00 - 1 = -1
At the half-way stage, the leader is 5-under, one shot ahead of four players tied on 4-under who are themslves just one shot ahead of the next clutch of four players... the leaderboard is tightly packed. What's more, there is very little dispersion of scores across the leading group, with scores for the top-20 oscillating around PAR. This presents some nice value opportunities as we enter the final two rounds and the 2-ball matches.
In 2-ball betting, the tie-result comes into play which is priced as a distinct outcome. The bookies just offer 8/1 the tie across the board, regardless of the pairing. The principle is simple: both players are evenly matched as they've shot - in most case - identical net scores for the first two rounds. If that's the case, you must wonder why some players are big odds-on and the opponent big odds-against if the match is so "even".
That's as may be, I am interested in a fun-experiment that could yield us a tidy profit. In matches where the net scores are equal or either of their previous two round scores were equal, I'm going to back a draw outcome at 8/1.
There are 14 matches priced up in the market. Of these, only one match failed to qualify by the above criteria..so to make life easier, we'll include all fourteen.
If there is just one tied match, we lose 6pts; two tied matches, we make a very small profit of +2 pts; 3 tied matches, we make 10pts, etc.
Without computing all the probabilities, past results, etc. it's difficult to be hugely confident...but my initial estimate suggests there's a high probablility of 2 tied resilts, a good probability of 3 tied results, and a low probability of >= 4 tied results.
Let the experiment commence...
1pt @ 8/1 on each of the following individual 2-ball matches to be TIED :
Lee Slattery v Chris Wood
Anders Hansen v Fabrizio Zanotti
Thorbjorn Olesen v Richard Bland
Richie Ramsay v Shaun Micheel
Nicolas Colsaerts v Peter Lawrie
Pablo Larrazabal v Marcel Siem
Rafael Cabrera Bello v Darren Fichardt
Sam Hutsby v Thongchai Jaidee
James Kingston v Matthew Baldwin
Soren Kjeldsen v Gary Orr
Francesco Molinari v Graeme Storm
Danny Willett v Jorge Campillo
Robert Rock v Matteo Manassero
Simon Dyson v Gregory Bourdy
Posted on: 05.05.2012, 00.49 CET (Viewed: 90 times)
Match starts on: May 05, 2012
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