Kiel - Others - Champions League

KIEL TO WIN HANDBALL CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2012 @2.2

With the current odds, and assuming Kiel wins against Füsche Berlin (wich will happen 99% of the times), one can get a "sure bet" by playing 5 stakes on Kiel, 3 on Atletico Madrid and 2 on Copenhagen.
Again, that is if we keep Berlin out of the equation, but he is out no matter what...

Kiel aresimply the srtrongest team in europe, in the world, right now. They have yet to lost a game on the german Bundesliga, and with 5 games left they are already winners.
From now on, they need to play German Cup, wich doesn't take much effort off them, and prepare the Champions League Final 4, taking place in Cologne.
It is important to note that so much preparation gives Kiel a lot of time to come into this Final 4 ready for anything to happen.
Their keeper is one of the best in the world, and having a great keeper is the first step towards winning the Champions League.

I'm already taking Füsche Berlin out, because they have no real chances against Kiel on the semifinals. They simply lack a large roster and another key player, a player that can put the team on his back and win the game on his own. Every other team here has him, they don't.

Atletico de Madrid is the best in-form team from spanish league. They have just lost a game on ASOBAL this year, against Barcelona who is missing this Final 4.
They are playing just next week (I think exact date is 12/05) against Barcelona again, in a match that could decide the season for both teams. From there on, they have 2 weeks to prepare this games if they have lost against Barcelona, but they still need to win their league games no matter what.
They are coming in a good form, although Aguinagalde may not be at his best for the Final 4, because he has been having small injuries here and there thorough the season and he is suffering from them at this late stages.

AG Kobenhavn is the newcomer to this series. They have real chances to win this and their odds represent very good value at 5.5.
As Kiel, Kobenhavn is having all the time they want to get ready for the Final 4. Their league is already over and they have nothing else to do this season, having won the league without much opposition.
Their team is being paid by a milionaire, and they have one of the highest budgets any team does, if not the highest.
Their only handicap is their goal. Kasper Hvidt is very good, but they don't have a second goalie and they suffer from it sometimes. I don't think it will be the case there.
They also have problems with the older players, who can play the game for 60 minutes.
Mikkel Hansen is the key here. He is the man. The best handball player in the world right now, and when he has his day he just smashes faces here and there without giving out chances to their opponents.



Now for my bets...
Betting on Kiel is, in my opinion, pretty straightforward. Their semifianal against Füsche Berlin is not even considered by me, because if they lose there... well, then they don't deserve next years Champions League, too much team difference. It would be a way bigger surprise than when Füsche Berlin overcame a 12 goals difference on the second leg of quarterfinals against Ademar de Leon.

Then, who are we picking from the other semifinal to have a good covered Final?
Well, right now at the time of writing odds are at ~1.75 for Atl. Madrid (2 in betsson, because they are mad or just because the nordics putting their money on Kobenhavn) and ~2.5 on Kobenhavn.
I believe Kiel can beat any of them, and I don't want to get involved on betting there right now.
Might chance my mind, but I'm leaving it open at the time of writing this tip.

As I'm confident on Kiel to reach the finals, I will bet on them with a good stake.
This leaves us room to cover ourselves at the finals, or pick the other "favourite finalist" from the other semifinal later on, if we feel like doing so.
I want to wait and watch Atletico play against Barcelona first.

Good luck everyone, and enjoy!

1

Supporters

1. Crator

Posted on: 05.05.2012, 03.37 CET (Viewed: 405 times)
Match starts on: May 26, 2012

8/10 on Kiel at 2.20 with Paddy Power (Fixed Odds)

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2.20