KK Zagreb - Zadar
|08-05-2012, 19:00||KK Zagreb - Zadar
League: A1 League playoff group
UNDER 156.5 POINTS AT ODDS 2.02Final result: 89 - 90
Profit: 0.00 - 8 = -8
Deciding game for the last available play-off place (and Adriatic League spot next season) between Zagreb and Zadar.
I wrote already about the injury weakened team of Zagreb (4th, 6-7). The situation for them is as clear as a sunny day. They've to win by 8 or more points to secure the 4th place. The first meeting ended in a 69-62 win of Zadar and to take the tie-breaker Zagreb has to win by more than those 7 points. Zagreb will once again be without long-term injured center Kasun, Babic, Rasic and captain Krunoslav Simon. With only Mulaomerovic, Ozbolt and Markota left, coach Brajkovic will once again try to come to a success with a zone defense as against Cedevita in their 67-77 loss on Saturday. That loss can be rated as success considering that they've played that match without 7 regulars.
Zadar (5th, 6-6) has one game in hand (awaiting Sibenik at home in the last round = win) and as already mentioned they took the first meeting with 69-62. They will have to stick once again to their stingy defense which is without any doubt the best part of this team. Against Zagreb's zone defense they will have to take more 3-point shots and I doubt that they will have a 3-point shooting percentage higher than 40%. All key players are fit and ready, and also about 200 fans are ready for their trip to Zagreb to support their team in this crucial match of the season.
Zagreb 86.4 PPG in overall and 88.5 PPG at home
Zadar 72.9 PPG in overall (allowing 69.8 PPG) and 75.8 PPG on the road (allowing just 66.2 PPG)
Totals: 159.3 PPG in overall (156.2), respectively 164.3 PPG home/away (154.7)
As already the first meeting this season proved (131 points), we can expect once again a very defense minded game between this two sides. Paired with the absentees on side of Zagreb and the importance of this encounter, I don't see any team scoring above 80 points. I expect something in the range between 140 and 150 points at most. Also take note that Zagreb managed only 78.6 points in average (including a 87-95 OT loss to Cedevita) against the top 3 teams at home. That are 10 points below their home average. Meanwhile Zadar possesses the best defense in the league allowing just 69.8 points per game. Everything points to an under in this one.
High stakes 8/10 on under 156.5 points.
Posted on: 07.05.2012, 21.31 CET (Viewed: 564 times)
Last edited: 07.05.2012, 21.38 CET
Match starts on: May 08, 2012
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It also happened to me McCalebb, I bet on regular time only and got some money out of it. Although odds were a bit lower obviously. That was just bad luck poglavica, don't let it get you down!
Hey pal, I am sorry for such a comment but I had a really bad day and if also this match would end with over I would just kill myself :). Well, thanks God for such a low scoring last quarter. Our local bookie offers for basketball just odds and lines for regular time. OT is not included, so I won money becuase of you. Thank you :)!
FT 76-76. OT 89-90. Zadar had 4 times the chance to win that one in regular time. With 54 seconds to the end. 4 offensive rebounds and one clear foul on Zadar which the referee didn't whistled later, and Zagreb was on the free-throw line with 3 seconds to go. They missed both free-throw's to go into OT because they had to win by 8. Btw, Zadar led 76-66 with 1:48 to go. That's betting, cruel and unfair sometimes. If anything is positive for me in this match, than it's the fact that Zadar secured the play-offs and will kick some asses within the ABA league next season. Cheers.
Is it possible that 1st half ended with 42:43?!? That stupid match is going over easily...
Well that's why I asked how many players were back, to get more of a feeling about it. Seems like a good bet, definitely following you. About the NBA... well, that end of the game was disappointing? Spurs embarassing themselves? I don't know, they were like on holidays. If they do that same thing against, say, a good team, they would be playing the first game right now, and it was close for them. I couldn't even finish watching it, felt robbed.
3 of the 7 are back. Mulaomerovic, Markota and Ozbolt didn't play on Saturday to be ready for today. Why should they play more offensively? To catch the 8 points deficit? That's exactly what Zadar will try to avoid. Secondly, with whom should they play more offensively if they miss 4 regulars? They've scored just 137 points in their last two meetings against Cedevita and Split, which are similar in quality as Zadar. I don't see them suddenly score 100 points in this game, knowing that Zadar allows just barely 70 points against. At the end, it's everyone's own choice to go for it or not, I can't say more than it's said now. I'm also not responsible for a 20-6 series within 191 seconds as happened in the Jazz - Spurs game, but that's another pair of stinking shoes ... That was definitely my last NBA bet for this season. Just amazing things have happened within this NBA play-offs, and I'm really sick of such stories. It's about the 10th bet I lost in the last damn quarter because of someones eat my shoes attitude in the end of the game. You're welcome. Cheers
I'm following you on this one, but can I ask a pair of questions? -Are the 7 players back for Zagreb? You said they played last game without 7 regulars. -Don't you think the 8-poin average line may be enough for Zagreb to go with a more offensive game? Thanks!