Peter Hanson - E/w The Players Championship
|11-05-2012, 16:00||Peter Hanson - E/w The Players Championship
PETER HANSON 1PT E/W @ 80/1Final result: 0 - 1
Profit: -2.00 - 2 = -4
This week it's the turn of the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass, commonly regarded as the unofficial fifth major. It carries more OGWR/FedEx points and prize money than any other tournament outside the majors.
Just about kept the successful run going last week picking out Ben Curtis @ 100/1 who finished in a share of 5th and Michael Allen in the same berth on the Seniors (Champions) Tour. Missed out in Europe so keen to put that right this week (see separate analysis).
This week, we're looking for players that fit the following criteria:
1. Previous course form - newbies rarely do well on their first few visits to Sawgrass, in fact it takes on average 10 attempts before wining the Players
2. Strokes gained putting and 3-putt avoidance
3. Scambling - crucial as missed GIR are common
4. Driving accuracy and total driving
5. GIRs hit from 200yds+
My initial longlist is Lee westwood, Rory Mcilroy, Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia, Peter Hanson, Zach Johnson, Hunter Mahan, Ryan Moore, Louis Oosthuizen, Ian Poulter, Henrik Stenson, Lee Westwood, Robert Allenby, Ben Crane, Aaron Baddeley, Ben Curtis, Jason Day, Jason Dufner, and Bud Cauley.
They can't all fit on the Longtermprofits' bus, so after a fair amount of deliberation and soul searching, I've giving a starting berth to the following players:
Peter Hanson @ 80/1
More consistent than many of the players at 25/1 and three times the price. Outstanding big tournament record this year including 3rd at Masters, 5th in WGC World Matchplay and 4th in Cadillac.
Zach Johnson @ 66/1
8th appearance this year and just one missed cut. Of the remaining six years, his Tied 12th in 2011 was one of four top-25 finishes. Great putter, great scrambling stats, in good form (finished 2nd in RBC Heritage last month). Stand out stat is 8 rounds under par here in last 12 - really impressive stuff round this ultra tough course.
Ben Crane @ 80/1
Signs were there in last week's Wells Fargo, where he shot an eye-catching 64 (8-under) in round 2, that winning wasn't far away. Great record at Sawgrass ( three top-6 finishes in last four years) and top-10 putter. Included at expense of Aussie contingent.
Ben Curtis @ 80/1
Strong competition for places in the staking plan this week. Could so easily have included local boy Bud Cauley or Robert Allenby, but how could I leave out last week's money contributor Ben Curtis. Absolutely flying right now and has to be included Won Texas Open and has continued in same vein of form, T5th last week, T5th week before in Charlotte, NC and T13th in New Orleans Open week before that. Great profile fit too: #5 in GIR, #25 in Scrambling, #2 putting.
Sergio Garcia @ 45/1
Sergio's game is right back to near his best and probably more consistent, and he seems to have sorted out his putting demons. Less temperamental than in the past and I'm expecting a good show this week. He's the Man round Sawgrass with best record bar none. In last six years has finished inside top-15 four times including winner in 2008, plus he was 4thin 2002 and 12th last year. He's also tops all-time earnings at the course and is 14th on combined all-round game stats this year shows his game is in great nick.
If I had one more pick, I would include Aaron Baddeley @ 125/1. Aussies have such a great record in this event and it was a tough call between Day, Allenby and Baddeley. Latter is the choice for his great putting ability ad two top-10s in last three years. With another pick I'd probably plum for fellow-australian Robert Allenby @ 175/1. Sure to shorten in price before the start, he has a great short game and solid on the greens, 2nd two years ago and 4th in 2003. Could come good back at Sawgrass. If I had a third spare pick, I'd also include Bud Cauley. Still in his rookie year but local boy and has played this course as manay times as anyone in the field. Could surprise at a big price.
Ones to watch that didn't make the cut:
Purely of grounds of price/value, I excluded Lee Westwood, Luke Donald and Rory although if I had to pick three players to give me a win to save my life, I'd pick those three Ryder Cup buddies.
Posted on: 08.05.2012, 01.26 CET (Viewed: 124 times)
Last edited: 07.06.2012, 00.58 CET by Joe
Match starts on: May 11, 2012
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