Manchester City - Queens Park Rangers
|13-05-2012, 16:00||Manchester City - Queens Park Rangers
League: Premier League, England
|Find more betting data on bettingexpert clash: Manchester City vs. Queens Park Rangers|
QUEENS PARK RANGERS TO WIN AH (+2.25) AT ODDS 2.08Final result: 3 - 2
Profit: 12.48 - 6 = 6.48
Holy crap! A QPR victory is almost unthinkable and the odds makers suggests the same at odds around 21.00! Well then. With the given odds it would take a miracle for Manchester City to fail to beat QPR and to win the title as such a probability is as short as 1.14 in odds. In search for value I dive deep into the locker room of the QPR!
What the Citizens (1st, 27-5-5 90:27 86 pts) need here is a simple win. They don't have to win 7-0, 8-0 or 12-0 as the odds may suggest here. At the El Jihad, eh El Etihad Stadium (give me a break), Mancini's boys allowed just Sunderland (3-3) to take a point back home, posting a remarkable 17-1-0 52:10 home record. Manchester City won five straight outscoring their opponents by 15-1. If you consider backing City in any way with value left, consider taking a to nil victory, as in 11 of their 17 home successes, the away team failed to score at all.
Now, let's take a closer look into locker room of the guests. It's far from true that QPR (17th, 10-7-20 41:63 37 pts) will travel to Manchester with a white flag in their hands. The guest have still plenty to play for, as they're just two points clear to chasing Bolton. If the Wanderers somehow take a win against for the golden peanut playing Stoke City in Stoke-on-Trent, QPR would be relegated if they don't obtain at least a point. Do they want that? I'm sure they don't. Ok, I must admit that QPR aren't the world’s best travellers, with their 13 defeats on the road (3-2-13 17:38) more than any other Premier League club this season. That said, the Rangers are dead last in the away standings. However, they have almost as much to play for as Manchester City, as any positive result would guarantee their Premier League survival, bearing in mind that they have a better goal difference (+7) than Bolton.
Manchester City has a +8 goal advantage over United. With the Reds involved at Sunderland, it is hard to imagine that United wins by +10 or more goals if City wins just 1-0 or 2-0. I see huge value in taking the guests to remain at least within a two-goal loss at most. Bear in mind that a must-win situation mostly results with a high-pressure and a nervous approach to the game. Should the guests score a leading goal, that pressure would become even much higher. These odds may be deserved looking at the home/away performances of both teams during the season, however, this is the last game of the season and everything before that doesn't count at all. I would at least laugh the whole day if City fails to win here, that's guaranteed. Honestly, I would like to see that happen just to see the millions of the Arabian owners of City flushing down the toilet and to see their faces after such an outcome.
Medium stakes 6/10 on QPR to win AH (+2.25).
Posted on: 09.05.2012, 13.44 CET (Viewed: 599 times)
Match starts on: May 13, 2012
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