Zach Johnson - E/w Colonial Golf
|24-05-2012, 12:00||Zach Johnson - E/w Colonial Golf
ZACH JOHNSON 2PTS E/W @ 16/1Final result: 1 - 0
Profit: 42.00 - 2 = 40
The Colonial is one my favourite tournaments on the PGA tour - due more to recent betting success at the event than the thrillig golf. The tournament is typically low scoring despite its length and the gusty conditions, and for excitment give me the all round test of a British Open anyday.
With plenty of players posessing the ideal profile for this tournament, and so many in great form, it could be difficult narrowing down the field to hone in on the eventual winner.
Profile wise, I'm looking for:
1. Driving accuracy / Total driving
2. GIR %
3. Putting - especially % 2-putts outside 40'/total distance putts made
4. Ability to play in wind
5. Current form
6. Previous course form
Processing that little lot - with some subjective pruning and shaping of the candidates - gives me a long list of:
Rickie Fowler, Charlie Wi, Kevin Na, Matt Kuchar, Bo Van Pelt, Jason Dufner, David Toms, Bryce Molder, Zach Johnson, Jim Furyk, Brian Davis, Ben Crane, John Senden, Bill Haas and Hunter Mahan.
No apologies for putting some obvious choices at the top of the staking plan - namely Bo Van Pelt, Zach Johnson and David Toms.
Bo Van Pelt @ 28/1
Making his 9th appearance at the Colonial and yet to miss the cut. Finished 3rd last year. Ranked 6th in total driving, 2nd in putting, 1st in top-10 finishes, 2nd in birdie conversion, top-10 in birdies and eagles average.
Zach Johnson @ 16/1
After finishing 2nd at the tough RBC Heritage, Zach Johnson was my pick to come good at last week's Players' Championship and he finished second again. He's in the staking plan again - can it be third time lucky? Zach's game is in great shape, and it's a perfect fit for the Colonial. This is adequately evidenced by his record round here: not outside top-10 in last three starts and holds phenomenal course record of 259 (21-under par) set during his winning year in 2009.
That's the easy part completed - deciding on the final two players for the staking plan has proved real tough and there no little regret in having to do some arbitrary "optioneering" to get there.
Hunter has fallen away in last two tournaments after bistering first third of season, could bounce back here but no room on the bus this week. John Senden was my idea of outside pick but closer inspection of his stats don't fit colonial as well as some and like Hunter has to make way for more likely winner. Jim Furyk has an outstanding record at colonial and has been in great form this year generally, all stats fit well, but he's becoming expensive to follow and just missed the staking plan. Kevin Na gets the job doe without the individual stats suggesting he should - could surprise again this week, but the formula rejects him this week. Charlie Wi showed he likes this track with 2nd place last year, but this year's stats suggest he needs to improve on fundamentals to figure again this year.
That leaves Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Bryce Molder, Bill Haas, Ben Crane, and Jason Dufner still on the list.
For all Fowler's undoubted ability and big name status, he was beginning to look like an also-ran every tournament. All that changed with his win at Quail Hollow and narrow failure to follow up at The Players Championship - 3 top-10s in last three starts makes him one of hottest players around right now. Shot an opening round 63 last year before fading at the weekend, finishing 16th. Also shot a 64 in 2010. He's too short for me at 16/1 but 25/1 to be first round leader and that looks a slightly better option.
Matt Kuchar @ 16/1.
Until Kuchar tired over the weekend in the Byron Nelson, the Players Champion was looking good for his third win of the season. If he's recovered and fresh enough, he should be right there again. Never missed a cut at the Colonial and finished 9th and 16th from five attempts thus far. Winning is becoming a habit and he looks comfortable at the top. Should feature on another weekend leaderboard.
And the final pick - and to give some weight to the odds, I've gone with a guy who doesn't tick all the boxes but could give us a run for our money at a big price: Bryce Molder @ 80/1.
Molder finished 5th here in 2010 but missed cut last year. He's top-5 on putting which is crucial, top-10 on GIR, and driving accuracy that is not too shabby. Not quite brought it all together for four rounds often but worth chancing it's this week.
Posted on: 22.05.2012, 17.31 CET (Viewed: 152 times)
Match starts on: May 24, 2012
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So, I found now some 6-7 similar cases on his picks and all that for some 10-15 minutes of checking. Who knows for how many units longtermprofits has increased his total profit? Who knows how many more similar picks are here. Plus horce racing which I don't even want to check. This simply is not a coincidence. For someone who knows very well golf betting, you can't make such rookie mistakes over and over again. I am very disappointed in you and really hope that admins will take appropriate sanctions against you.
In fact it's not OK and it should be corrected. longtermprofits, you took Each-Way for 2 units at odds 16/1 (17.00). Your player won and the calculation is as follows: Half stake (1 unit x 17= 17.00) Half stake on places where the odds is 5.00 in your case (1 unit x 5.00= 5.00) So, 17+5=22.00 - stake 2= profit 20.00 NOTE: Your total stake for this bet was only 2 not 4 units. If this was lost bet, you would lose only 2 units. Don't tell us now here that you would corrected manually the profit to -4 if this bet was lost, since I checked some of your previous LOST Each-Way bets and for example when you had: EW for 1 unit then your profit was only -1 not -2. And as advice for future, you can do as I am doing. When it is Each-Way option I would add for pick like this one bet for stake 2 at odds 17.00 and second for stake 2 on odds 5.00. Exactly today I had such pick and it was even the same odds (17.00) Joe, please take a look on this and make correction.
Ok. I understand now. Thank you for clarifying this for me. Cheers ! :)
Santos, it's an each way bet which as you probably know is two distinct bets (a place bet and a win bet). The BE interface doesn't readily accomodate this type of bet, so have to calculate the return manually. Zach Johnson won at 16/1 so win return is (as you state) (17 x 2) - 2 stake PLUS the place bet is (16/4) x 2 = 8 profit. So overall profit is 32 + 8 = 40. (Or more simply 1.25 * 16 * 2).
How did that profit come out? odds 17 x 2 (stake) = 34 - 2 stake = 32 profit.... DO we have some new rules or a different way of calculating profit, that I don't know about? Cheers
May sound like that :P I must say I did think of Zach Johnson being able of getting this done, but did not bet for him after all. I took him on his 72-balls H2H though, odds were appealing at 2.1 against Matt Kuchar. Didn't put it up here because I saw the H2H way too late :) You know that time when you are checking what bookies offer and you miss one or a pair, just the ones you might have been interested? Still good, made some money out of him and from Bill Haas (got lucky there). Cheers.
Cheers Crator...in the end, it was the obvious candidate that got the job done. Also had Luke Donald at the PGA for a nice 169/1 double...and I put up Branden Grace at 100/1 e/w (finished 5th for 25/1 payout)..but now I just sound like I'm bragging! Rgds, P
Nice eye on this one!