Luke Donald - E/w BMW PGA Championship
|24-05-2012, 09:00||Luke Donald - E/w BMW PGA Championship
LUKE DONALD E/W @ 8/1Final result: 1 - 0
Profit: 22.00 - 2 = 20
Time is short this week folks, so I'm going to keep my write-up a little more concise than usual.
The BMW PGA Championship is the tour's flagship event. Not only does it carry a nice pay cheque - bettered only by The Open in value - and lots of ranking points, but it also carries lots of valuable exemptions on the European tour. The latter is especially attractive for up and coming players.
The line-up is the most impressive ever and accordinfly it going to take an outstanding performance to win it. The course is demanding - but Ernie Els, who was the architect of the controversial redesign work in 2010 and has a house on the estate, believes there will be low scores this week and a double-digit sub-par winning score. One could probably infer from those comments that the course will play easier than in previous years - time will tell. What is clear is that the ingredients for success won;t have changed much, so we're looking for a solid ball striker, tidy off the tee, high percentage of GIR, and - as always - a solid putter, especially inside ten feet.
When you consider Westwood was involved in the play-off and shoot-out for world #1 with Donald last year, without putting well, you realise just how good the rest of his game is.
To personify the characteristics of the likely winner, we're looking for someone with the game of Luke Donald at his imperious 2011 best. Now, the one person who fits that bill better than most is....Luke Donald himself...obviously. As well as winning last year, he finished 3rd in 2010, and a clutch of other top 10s. He has to be on the staking plan. Although he popped up at the Players Championship and has won this year, he isn't at his best yet.
His stroke average is a full two shots higher than last year. He is hitting 18% fewer fairways although a tad longer of the tee. His GIR numbers are way down and even his putting is below his form last year or the year before. If he keeps on this trajectory - in 30 years, he'll be as bad a golfer as me!
The next three golfers pick themselves:
Ernie Els, won several world matchplays here, knows the course better than anyone, playing consistently well in the US, and only one of two golfers in the field to have averaged <71 round this course.
Ben Curtis, brilliant in recent weeks on US tour and #1 on putting and top-5 on driving accuracy. Mattero Manasserro, huge talent, glimpses of his best form this year, 7th and 17th in two visits here, 7th in last two tour events.
A tad more surprising is the inclusion of Soren Kjedsen who is playing well and was 10th here in 2008 after shooting a 76 in 3rd round and 3rd in 2009. Runner up when last seen in the Open de Espana, well rested before this, and overall three top-5 finishes this year.
There are a plethora of quality players in the field at huge 3-figure prices - and it wouldn't be a surprise at all if one or more of them featured on the leaderboard this week and grabbed a top-5/6 finish. These include Danny Willet (125/1), Chris Wood (150/1), JBe Kruger (150/1), Oliver Wilson (200/1), Tom Lewis - young player of the year (200/1), Scott Jamieson (250/1), SFelipe Aguilar (250/1), etc, etc.
But my final slot is going to Marcus Fraser @ 70/1. The aussie knows how to win, coming into form - finished 6th and 3rd in China Open and Ballantines - finished 4th last year (but otherwise form in event not great), and overall stats are encouraging.
Posted on: 23.05.2012, 00.24 CET (Viewed: 262 times)
Match starts on: May 24, 2012
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Interesting, you doubled your profit on every EW winning bet. Joe, as I already said in previous post on other pick, the same is here for this one. Here the profit should be only 10 and not 20 units. Total stake was only 2 (1 on win + 1 on places) and not 2+2 as longtermprofits calculated. Note that on every lost EW pick (for stake 2), his profit is -2 and not -4. So, everything is pretty much clear, he calculated like it was stake 4, while when he lose than it is stake 2.
It's right - I actually back most of the bets I put up here and I have the bank balance to prove it :-) Donald won at 8/1. Backed each-way at 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6 places. So profit is 1.25 * 8 * 2 = 20pts (net of each way stakes). Cheers, P
Hi, the profit you counted here is wrong isn´t it? Because of the each way bet of course. The same by Zach Johnson at Crowne Plaza Invitational...