Nancy - Le Mans

	Date	Match	Selection	Odds	Stake	Bookmaker
	25-05-2012, 20:30	Nancy - Le Mans League: Pro A Playoff, France	Away +6.5	2.08	6

Posted by poglavica (Betting Expert: 14262 BE Points)

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Bets: 19 Yield: -3%	Bets: 0 Yield: 0%	Bets: 2080 Yield: 3%

LE MANS TO WIN AH (+6.50) AT ODDS 2.08

Final result: 60 - 68
Profit: 12.48 - 6 = 6.48

French LNB A league play-offs quarter-finals. Game 2. Nancy leads the series 1-0.

Le Mans is facing an early elimination after blowing game 1 losing it 64-89 as a 4 points favorite. The story of that game is told very fast. Just a quick look at their 3-points stats reveals what went wrong in that game. They shot lousy 14.3% (3-21) from behind the arc, with their starting five going 1-17 in that segment! Not much better was their perimeter shooting which was also below any professional number with a shooting percentage of just 39.4%. As I've already written in my preview for game 1, both teams are on college level and that points was impressively proved by Le Mans.

Meanwhile Nancy enjoyed a rare good shooting day in game 1. They shoot unreal 50% (10-20) from behind the arc and had an overall shooting percentage of impressive 58.1%. Not bad for a college basketball team. I doubt that they can repeat such a performance once again. The same goes to their opponents from Le Mans. The fact that Nancy won game 1 with +25 as a 4 point underdog, results in the fact that the hosts are now favored by 6.5 points.

Game 1 proved how unpredictable these two college basketball teams are. The point line is set at 153.5. Game 1 went with 153 total points just a half point under. Both matches within the regular season, however, went over the posted total. Nancy won with 80-78 at home, meanwhile Le Mans won the reverse fixture with 95-77. If both teams should have an average shooting performance of 50%, this game would end around 76-78 for Le Mans.

Therefore, the points total is set very accurate and a no-go. Instead, I'll pick Le Mans once again with the 6.5 points spread. I just don't see them repeating such a performance, neither is Nancy a teams which can play at such level as they played in game 1. The fact that the public is jumping on Nancy after game 1, results in nice value by taking Le Mans to cover this time. Odds at 2.08 are too good to miss.

Medium stakes 6/10 on Le Mans to win AH (+6.50).
Good luck!