Michele Scarponi - Others - Giro d'Italia 2012

	Date	Match	Selection	Odds	Stake	Bookmaker
	26-05-2012, 10:15	Michele Scarponi - Others - Giro d'Italia 2012 League: Giro d'Italia	Home	23.00	1

Posted by Crator (Betting Expert: 14066 BE Points)

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MICHELE SCARPONI TO WIN GIRO D'ITALIA 2012 @23

Final result: 0 - 1
Profit: 0.00 - 1 = -1

Starting stage 20, I will place 3 bets here.

The first two will be on Scarponi to win the Giro and on Basso to do exactly the same.
Well, only one could happen, and right now this are the standings:

1. "Purito" Rodriguez 0:00
2. Ryder Hesjedal 0:17
3. Ivan Basso 1:39
4. Michel Scarponi 1:45

At this point, calling Purito the winner is probably a 80% fail, that's why he pays at 6 on paddypower, and I'm not betting on that. He will lose like 30-40 seconds to each one of the other 3 at the individual time trial that is still to be ran.
This puts Hesjedal on top, and he is the man to win on this Giro, because he is the best on the time trial from the 4.

Basso and Scarponi have about the same chances. They need to do a good time at the 20th stage and leave Hesjedal behind, or they just won't make it. It will not be easy but they will try, that's for sure, and at the risk of 2 stakes (I would bet 0.5 stake on each of them), it is worth the risk because they are great mountain climbers.

I foresee Purito having problems tomorrow too, because he is running too good for him... he always blanks out on one stage.
Will it be tomorrow? No idea.

My other bet for this 20th stage will be on Kreuziger to win it. He already won today, showing he can do it, and he has opted for that because he fell off the Giro title course.
On stage 18 he just failed, failed hard, and dropped too much time, and he admitted on an interview that he will fight for the stage win on this last 2 mountain stages.
He pays at good 21 odds, so worth 1 stake (0.5) on him.