Stabæk - Lillestrøm
|28-05-2012, 18:00||Stabæk - Lillestrøm
League: Tippeligaen, Norway
|Find more betting data on bettingexpert clash: Stabæk vs. Lillestrøm|
LILLESTROM TO WIN @ 2.31Final result: 4 - 1
Profit: 0.00 - 10 = -10
A cursory glance at the league table will tell you both these sides are struggling with their early season form: Stabaek have managed to bag just one point in ten games - for what its worth, that point was secured at home; today's opponents Lillestrom sit two places higher in the league and are hardly "pulling up trees" in their efforts with just 11 points return from their 11 games this season.
A deeper analysis of what lies behind those league headlines is a set of statistics that converge to only one conclusion: Lillestrom will win this game with a 90% confidence factor. So, at 2.31 for the away win, I'll go large on this bet!
Any team with one point to show for their first ten games is in crisis by any definition. But with crisis, comes desparation and then determination (to resolve the problem) - they can't lose all season and they will target the games with teams around them as critical "must win". So I guess the motto is.. beware the wounded animal (although in this case Stabaek would be a mouse not a lion).
Stabaek have only scored 3 goals and conceded 25 in their ten games so far - it's arbitary whether you blame a defence that leaks 2.5 goals a game or an attack that can only score 0.3 goals a game. And their home form is no better than their away form: 1 point from 5 games, scored zero / nil / zilch goals and conceded 11 (the point was courtesy of a 0-0 draw). It doesn't take a genius to realise that if you don't score, the best you can hope for is a draw. If you then leak goals like a victorian water main, you're inevitably going to lose.
As I said, opponents Lillestrom are no world beaters, but their away form is about average: played 5, won 1, drawn 2, lost 2. They have actually scored goals away from home too - 5 in total and conceded 7. So whilst not impressive, another goal is going to mean Stabaek have to do something they haven't managed so far this year - score at home.
In the interests of being impartial, it should be noted that Stabaek do have a fair record against Lillestrom, having won 2 and drawn 2 of their last five meetings. But in this fixture last season - in a "closely fought" game, Lillestrom prevailed... the score? 0-7 to Lillestrom!!
As they say in the north east, "Fill ya boots".
Posted on: 28.05.2012, 11.30 CET (Viewed: 759 times)
Last edited: 28.05.2012, 11.35 CET
Match starts on: May 28, 2012
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The score after 20 minutes was so incredible, I watched most of it online. It was riddiculous, a team losing 1-4 not putting in a tackle, walking around the pitch. It was like a veterans testimonial game! I even dropped a line to UEFA who have supposed to have a european-wide anit-corruption unit monitoring all betting patterns and in-game play. Where does sports integrity end and betting begin?
mission failed !! hahahaia..
Lower league football the world over is as corrupt as hell... betting has a lot to answer for. Stabaek haven't scored a single goal all season at home. They have one point from 10 games. But the reducing odds suggested they could win this game - so the money was down for them in unsually large volumes. 4-1 up at half-time! What are the odds on an abandoned match due to floodlight failure on 85 mins or a herd of cattle crossing the pitch. Bent as a nine-bob note.
Notice how the Lillestrom price is drifting... smelling something dodgy, and it's aint my undies
I know how you feel Yudi...but at least Chelsea are a decet side and had a track record against Barcelona. Stabaek don't look capable of beating anyone right now - but's its sport and anything can happen :-)
last time iam 90% confidence won, barca - chelsea. iam lost..