Valencia - Barcelona
|30-05-2012, 20:45||Valencia - Barcelona
League: Liga Endesa Playoff, Spain
OVER 137.0 POINTS AT ODDS 1.91Final result: 64 - 80
Profit: 5.73 - 3 = 2.73
Spanish ACB league play-offs semi-finals. Game 3. Best-of-five series is tied at 1-1.
84-57 in game 1. That would fall into the category - business as usual for Barcelona. Than happened game 2 which ended 76-81 in favor of Valencia. Which category should that be than? Just 48 hours later from +27 to -5? Our local fun basketball team is more consistent in his performances I can tell you. It began as usual for Barcelona. They took an early 21-9 lead after just 8 minutes of the game, but afterwards everything else was just Valencia. Until halftime Valencia already took the lead (39-37) with a series of 30-16! They controlled that lead until the end of the game, never giving it up again. Some question in regards to Barcelona. Were was Navarro? A total of just 6 points, shooting 0-3 for three and 1-for-8 in overall! Barca shot just 29.0% from behind the arc (6/29) and just 37% in overall! Were was their usual defense? What exactly was Chuck Eidson doing for over 20 minutes of the game (4 points in overall shooting 2-of-7?
Valencia took the most out of Barca's performance and enters this game full of self-confidence and with home-court advantage. The question is, how will Barcelona react today. If you ask me, they will just do what they usually do; playing a great defense and bounce back in style. Except to home-court advantage, Valencia doesn't have any weapon which could harm Barcelona on usual level. With all that said, let's move to the betting verdict here.
I'll not touch the spread (-5.50) here. Instead, once again let's take our focus on the total points line (138.5). Well set. Game 1 produced 141 points and game 2 rare 156 points with Barcelona involved. On a usual day, we can expect somewhere around 130 and 145 points here, not more. Game 2 was just an exception and I don't see such a game happening once again. The two regular season matches produced 140 respectively 148 combined points, which is 144.0 points in average. Within the first two matches of this play-offs series we have an average of 149.0 points (141 + 157). Grand total would be: 146.5 points.
I will cover once again the points range here. Two bets splitting 6 units into 3 each for the following plays:
1) 3/10 on between 131 and 140 points to be scored at odds 3.25
2) 3/10 on between 141 and 150 points to be scored at odds 3.60
(Regular time only!)
and 3 units for the over 137.0 points line
3) 3/10 on over 137.0 points at odds 1.91 (including OT).
Note: As usual, lower limits at Bwin, but nice value again.
Posted on: 30.05.2012, 13.24 CET (Viewed: 190 times)
Match starts on: May 30, 2012
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