St.Louis Cardinals - Cleveland Indians
|09-06-2012, 02:15||St.Louis Cardinals - Cleveland Indians
League: MLB, USA
CLEVELAND INDIANS TO WIN ML AT ODDS 2.39Final result: 2 - 6
Profit: 14.34 - 6 = 8.34
The Cardinals went 4-6 over the last 10 matches and are 13-11 at home this season. St.Loius is 2nd in the NL central with 2.5 games adrift of the 1st position. The Cleveland Indians haven't played their best baseball this season, but they're still near to the top of the AL central with just 1.5 games behind the top position. They also went 4-6 over the last 10 matches, posting a 14-10 record on the road.
Jake Westbrook will get the start for the St.Louis Cardinals tonight. He is playing a solid season posting a 4.23 ERA allowing 74 hits and earning 31 runs.
The Indians will send Josh Tomlin to the mound. Tomlin allowed 50 hits earning 27 runs over the season for a 5.23 ERA.
The Cardinals went 4-1 over the last five matches against AL Central opponents, but are just 3-6 over the last nine. With Westbrook as starting pitcher and as a favorite of 1.60 or more, the Cardinals went just 1-4 over the last five matches. The Cardinals are averaging .274 hits over this season.
In a games 1 match, Cleveland went 14-3 over the last 17 games. In inter-league matchups, the Indians went just 10-27 over the last 37 matches and 4-10 over Tomlin's last 14 starts. The Indians are averaging .285 hits over the season.
Comparing the bullpen this is a fifty/fifty matchup (4.28 vs 4.18 ERA). However, Cleveland's starting lineup is much better than the Cardinals (4.61 vs 3.81 ERA) and it's therefore weird that the bookies have set the Cardinals as such big favorites here. Looking at the complete picture in this matchup, I rate Cleveland's chances to obtain a win much better than just 44%. With two nothing more than solid starting pitchers and considering that Indians starters are hitting much better over the season than the Cardinals do, the value is on the Indians tonight. Take the Indians with value representing odds well above 2.30.
Medium stakes 6/10 on Cleveland Indians to win ML (incl.OT).
Posted on: 08.06.2012, 13.48 CET (Viewed: 210 times)
Match starts on: June 09, 2012
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already dropped to 2.2 :(
No risk no fun. You don't make profit in the long-term betting on 1.50 favorites. It's exactly the other way around. And yes, I do like the value in this one. As already mentioned in the preview, the Indians have way the better chances to come out with a win then those odds reflect - VALUE!