France - Spain

	Date	Match	Selection	Odds	Stake	Bookmaker
	15-07-2012, 17:15	France - Spain League: General	Away	3.25	3

Posted by Crator (Betting Expert: 13809 BE Points)

This league	Last 6 months	Total stats	Subscribe
Bets: 145 Yield: 18.7%	Bets: 132 Yield: 13%	Bets: 1340 Yield: 3.4%

SPAIN TO WIN @3.25

Final result: 31 - 24
Profit: 0.00 - 3 = -3

Friendly match played in France.

Low stakes on this game, but I really think it will be very close and Spain can sneak a win.
There is a lot of value on this odds, because France had a lot of problems against Tunisia. Their shooting effectiveness was really bad, and today they will face Arpad Sterbik (yea, not spanish-born) who is on a very nice fit and, unless they improve, will stop many of the shots.

On a man-to-man comparison, France will win no matter how you look at it. They have a good mix of older and younger players, with great experience and others with a very good future. I could start naming them but it would be a long list.
They are lacking something else though. Their team play has been very bad for the last years and they can't find a way to recover from that. I think that it can be a problem with the players, because they often fail passes they shouldn't or don't manage to start a good play.
I also believe that France is physically exhausted and has been training too hard for the past week.

Spain took a longer time to train and I think they did a great work in the preparation. Their game against Iceland was pretty smooth, and I think that it was a good opponent to test real strategy, not like France against Tunisia.
Spain solved it comfortably and are now looking at a much more difficult game.

Even if this is played in Strasbourg and in front of a nice crowd, Spain has good chances to win the game and the odds suggest otherwise.
Was thinking of taking the handicap but since it's a friendly game, it's much better to go ML with lower stakes.