Roger Federer - Tomas Berdych

	Date	Match	Selection	Odds	Stake	Bookmaker
	06-09-2012, 02:15	Roger Federer - Tomas Berdych League: US Open	Away +6	1.75	7

Posted by horseman (Betting Expert: 11053 BE Points)

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Bets: 24 Yield: 5.9%	Bets: 283 Yield: -4.6%	Bets: 1251 Yield: 1.3%

7 POINTS BERDYCH +6 BEAT FEDERER (US OPEN) @1.75 PINNACLE

Final result: 19 - 22
Profit: 12.25 - 7 = 5.25

Roger Federer takes on Tomas Berdych in the quarter final of the US Open and although Federer is a massive favourte for this match (and rightly so) Berdych shouldn’t be underestimated and is playing some great tennis at the moment and with the handicap set at between 5 and 6 games I think there is a great chance that with this handicap he could win this match. The bet is for Berdych +6 games to beat Federer.

Federer has been back at his best this season and has been playing so well that he has reached the final in his last 4 tournaments incluing Wimbledon, the Olympics and most recently in Cincinati where he beat Djokovic in the final in 2 sets and I can see him making that 5 out of 5 finals here due to the way he is playing. His win rate this season is 89% rising to 91% in the last 3 mnths and he will be very hard to beat. If you look at the scores when he has played players ranked in the top 10 his average set score is won 5.6 games and lost 4.9 games which means he normally would win by between 1 and 2 games on average.

Berdych is having a great season ths year and with a win rate of 70% rising to 81% in the last 3 months it looks like he could trouble federer until you look at his performance against players ranked in the top 10 where he has played 6 times and won just once but thse games have all beeen quite close and his average set score against the top 10 players is lose 5.7 and wn 4.9 which is very similar to Federers so he normally loses by just 1 to 2 games. In his last tournament Berdych reached the final in Winston Slalem but was beated by Isner in 3 sets and I think he will find Federer a much harder opponent but he holds his service well and I expect him to be close in each set so can cover this handicap and if he does sneak a set then our bet looks very good.

In summary federer should win this match but Berdych will push him and I think he will win with the handicap.