Sri Lanka - Pakistan

	Date	Match	Selection	Probability of outcome	Odds	Stake	Bookmaker
	04-10-2012, 14:00	Sri Lanka - Pakistan League: T20, International	Away	50% - 0% - 50%	2.14	5

Posted by MrGherkin (Talented Tipster: 130 BE Points)

This league	Last 6 months	Total stats	Subscribe
Bets: 5 Yield: 12%	Bets: 5 Yield: 104.9%	Bets: 19 Yield: 13.2%

PAKISTAN TO WIN

Final result: 1 - 0
Profit: 0.00 - 5 = -5

I really can't split these sides. Both teams seem equally equipped on these Columbo pitches. SL were my favourites at the beginning of the tournament but Pakistan (when they have brought their A game) have been the best side in the competition.

Really not convinced about SL's middle order or their 5th bowling option and Pakistan will really fancy their chances if they can remove Dilshan/Jayawa/Sanga for reasonably cheap.

One thing I will say is that Pakistan will need Umar Gul to perform - he has been carried somewhat by the rest of his team so far whereas SL's key pace bowler (Malinga) has put in 2 match winning spells. Another bad day on Thursday for Gul and that might be the difference.

SL obviously have home advantage but I'm not sure the crowd will count for much and whilst they will be a welcome support for SL, it also adds pressure. Pakistan are very use to playing away from home due to their current touring circumstances.

I wasn't expecting to get more than 2.0 on either side, so I'll happily take the 2.14 available on Pinnacle for Pakistan.

In the other semi final (2 much weaker sides), if Australia get above 1.8 I will back them but at the moment the current odds seem about right to me.