Chelsea-Swansea under 3.5 goals @1,58
This is the first leg of the League Cup semi-final.
Chelsea stat : 7/20 Premier League matches > 3.5 goals.
Swansea just played one away match (out of ten) with more than 3 goals (a 0-5 win in first match against QPR).
As we can see here, an odd of 1.58 means value. Surely if you know that this is the first leg. Chelsea don't want to concede an away goal as they are very important in knock-out phase, so they will not take many risks, and Swansea will be happy to save the second leg, maybe with a little loss.
I prefer the more safe under 3.5 above the more risky under 2.5.