Who Will Be The Next Pope - Peter Turkson
|12-03-2013, 16:00||Who Will Be The Next Pope - Peter Turkson
WHO WILL BE THE NEXT PERMANENT POPE AFTER BENEDICT XVI? PETER TURKSON AT ODDS 5.00Final result: 0 - 0
Profit: 0.00 - 6 = -6
Who Will Be The Next Permanent Pope After Benedict XVI? Peter Turkson at odds 5.00
The several top favorites are:
Peter Turkson (Ghana), Marc Ouellet (Canada), Angelo Scola (Italy), Gianfranco Ravasi (Italy), Tarcisio Bertone (Italy), Francis Arinze (Nigeria), Leonardo Sandri (Argentina).
I'll go with first favorite, Peter Turkson from Ghana. At first look, it's clear odds of 5.00 on him are solid value since in most of other bookies odds are set between 3.00-3.75 or even lower.
I immediately eliminated the Europeans especially Italians. After last two that both were from European countries (Poland and Germany) I doubt we'll see again Pope from Europe.
But note half of all cardinals who will decide are Europeans (67 out of 125). Only those younger then 80 have have the right to vote. At this moment it is 117 or 118. And more then 30 are Italians. Still, I don't see this as a problem. Usually every cardinal will give its voice to one of his own. But it takes two-thirds plus one vote for one candidate to be elected. Plus there are too many Europeans especially Italians (candidates), so in my opinion votes will be too divided between those candidates.
Also one of my criteria are ages. After Benedict XVI has decided to give up the Papacy due to illness and at age of 85, those familiar with the situation in the Vatican expect this time to be elected someone much younger. The reason for younger Pope is fact no one wants too see again Pope who will spend only few years on this position. Benedict XVI leaving is first such case in last 600 years and there were only three such cases overall from all 265 Popes so far. And exactly Peter Turkson (age 63) seems as the best solution since he is by far the youngest among all top favorites. By the way, his current position is: President of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace.
If he would be elected, it will be the first time that a black man is at the head of the Roman Catholic Church. But why not? If USA could elect a black man for president then I don't see why Pope could not be from Africa.
So, when I have removed all top favorites from Europe, remained Francis Arinze (Nigeria) but he is much older then Peter Turkson. Then also Leonardo Sandri from Argentina who could be good candidate but I doubt he can go all the way. After all, when Benedict XVI was elected in 2005, there was rumor that other cardinal from Argentina (Jorge Mario Bergoglio) was second place finisher. It could easily to happen something like this to Leonardo Sandri.
The last no European is Marc Ouellet from Canada. By all criteria he should be very strong candidate, maybe even bigger then Peter Turkson. Marc Ouellet is the most qualified. He speaks fluently even six languages (English, French, Portuguese, Italian, Spanish and German). Plus he has done missionary work in South America so he could pick up some votes from cardinals from that part of the world. Still there is one big but in his case. After one of the cardinals is elected, he needs to accept election. But again by some rumors Marc Ouellet might decline.
Posted on: 13.02.2013, 01.35 CET (Viewed: 13351 times)
Last edited: 08.03.2013, 19.04 CET by David
Match starts on: March 12, 2013
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I reasoned that with him having been runner-up in the last one, and with most of these cardinals being present even then, it would have been a possibility for votes to converge on him at some point. There seemed to be high value in taking him at 80.00. In some Italian newspapers they had signaled him as a probable outsider this morning too. All in all though, this choice took a lot of Vatican analysts by surprise. Bergoglio is the first non-European pope, although he does descend from an Italian family which had long ago settled in Argentina.
Good for you David. I mentioned him in my preview as runners up in previous election, but didn't expected he will have chance now. For me Leonardo Sandri was more realistic option from South America.
Bergoglio. I got this guy at odds of 80.00.
Yes Erdo has emerged as a probable outsider even more according to today's newspaper reports. Along with Bergoglio who was the main rival for Ratzinger in the last election.
I still stick to Ouellet though.
At the moment one cannot but cover bets with stakes on Scola and Scherer who are still favourites. The Brazilian has seemingly lost backing though after the first round of votes, according to today's reports.
Excellent report David, thanks.
I also heard here that Scola had 40 votes but since it's not enough, most likely Italian cardinals mainly will turn to Scherer. By the way, I personally beside my first and now seems too early pick, also have decided to take yesterday one of the underdogs. And my choice was that Hungarian cardinal Peter Erdo. 25/1, not bad odds if we know that he was mentioned these days as a possible surprising option.
Yep black smoke. The American, Dolan, predicted it will be white on Thursday, meaning that there are still quite a few negotiations that need to be done behind closed doors if his words are to be taken seriously.
There seem to be four top candidates according to the well informed at the moment - Ouellet, Scola, O'Malley and Scherer. Some have included Dolan with them.
Apparently Scola had about 40 votes in this first round - that is what was predicted. The quota that needs to be reached is 77. Scherer does seem to have a good backing from the South Americans, who are 20 in total. However, with the Italian group not a very united front due to internal diatribes, some have turned to Scherer as he seems to be promising the post of second in command to an Italian.
The 28 Italians, therefore, may give a false impression that Scola has great chances but there has been jealousy lingering between them - in fact it is about 35 years since they could agree on a candidate, Albino Luciani the latest. Not to mention the many pretenders to dipping their fingers in the marmalade jar, that is the IOR (Istituto per le Opere di Religione) - the Vatican bank.
The Sodano and Bertone factions are the main divisions. All this makes Scola's candidacy quite a hyped up one. Besides he is considered one not very in line with current Curia methods. Another point that will divide opinion amongst the Italian group.
The question surrounding Ouellet, who is Canadian, is more enigmatic. With O'Malley and Dolan also from the North American continent, US, votes may be scattered here. However, nobody really has a good idea of how the Americans are moving. They do seem to stick together though. It will depend on who, from the other ministers, will support their candidate after this first round of votes.
The front runners seem to be Scherer and Scola but, as happened with Wojtyla in 1978, the more the voting sessions go on the higher the chances that an outsider gets the post. Here the two Americans may come into play. The problem with them is that, being from the US, it may lead to exacerbate the conflict with the Muslim world eventually.
However, even in terms of character, O'Malley and Dolan are very different propositions and this needs to be taken in consideration. The former is a Capuchin Franciscan who sold loads of riches from the Boston church he presided over in order to pay victims of sex scandals who had won the millionaire settlements in the US courts. He may be a breath of fresh air in the church in Rome. Dolan is more histrionic and outspoken. A typical New Yorker. He can be either very likeable or, quite frankly, hated depending on how one 'feels' him. In the US they claim he has worked to keep some sexual scandals hidden.
Two other outsiders are the Austrian Schonborn and the Hungarian Erdo. Schonborn is one said to be able to bring great changes to the church if elected. The very same changes Ratzinger would have wanted to bring about but eventually could not due to discovering he was not strong enough in the setup he found himself in. Schonborn was close to Ratzinger and this would help him get good advice and avoid his predecessor's mistakes.
The four I would isolate as favourites and rate as having somewhat equal chances, despite what bookmakers might say, are Schonborn, Scola, Scherer and Ouellet. I would watch out for Ouellet primarily. He can easily get backing from the North Americans and the South Americans, where he worked for some years in Colombia too. Africans ad Asians are not happy to keep all the secretive nature of the church still alive by electing a person close to the current management. They could drift towards the Canadian Ouellet in my opinion. Not to mention that a faction from the Italians can join this trend as well as other Europeans who would want to support an 'outside' candidate.
Black smoke after the first day. So, it means we still have to wait.
Do you have maybe some interesting news David?
In addition, since there is nothing 'holy' with these church matters and as such this is no different from other political disputes where power distribution is what takes centre stage, one should keep in mind
alleged conflicts between the Italian group and the apparent cohesion of
the American ones, the latter strengthened by a recent reprimand from
vatican authorities due to the Americans being "too transparent" with
their custom press conferences in Rome to update US journalists. Polite
excommunication threats were thrown in there too.
Investigations into the declarations of whistle blowers with regards to vatican secrets, connected to the butler who was smuggling reserved information to the media, are ongoing and it seems there is more nasty stuff which will build on to the Vatileaks scandal. ...and more people ready to spill precious information.
This would lead me to favour a new face, probably far from an Italian candidate who may have in some way been connected to the previous administration now seemingly compromised.
In relation to Turkson, last week in the streets of Rome one could find posters with the face of Turkson gazing 'to the heavens' and the words, in Italian, 'Al Conclave Vota Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson'.
Whether that was his doing or not, because essentially people do not get to vote in this election, it still won't have gone down well with many of the electorate in the papal conclave.
It is since those posters appeared in Rome that Scola has overtaken Turkson in the favourites' list with bookmakers.
As for Ouellet I have not heard any expert mention the possibility of Ouellet declining being pope. They still consider him a solid proposition.
As I wrote above, there is strong chance Ouellet would not accept if he would be chosen. Odds still favor Turkson and Scola. We'll see, in any case I still have big hopes for this bet.
From latest news it seems that if we were to go for a non-European candidate it will need to be from the North American or South American continents rather than Africa or Asia. Ouellet and Scherer are two strong candidates.
Yeah it will be wiser to wait for the posing competition before placing bets.
So, the youngest wins ???. Wait, good looking is a key factor here, I think =D
they will vote for a black pope, because the global elite wants to capture whole africa. proof? look at egypt, tunesia, lybia they want everything under control, white ppl are dumbed down enough, and black ppl don't like nazi popes like ratzinger and stuff so lets go for a black candidate. btw the vacitan is wicked evil but yea, enough said. like mister maradona said, obama was voted too and black people even suffer more than before, but who cares, we bet on peter and then big times payout, oh yeah
Yes Scola seems to be the front runner from Europe and he is Italian. Right now I would put my money on him. His odds are dropping as you said, and he is now close to Turkson. I would wait for some developments though as more information about the candidates is bound to emerge as the election day nears. Probably we'll get more focus on it once political elections in Italy are done with towards the end of this month.
Maybe you are right David, maybe there is no chance to African will win, at least not at this point. I was reading an article of a guy who seems to really understand this subject and after it I was convinced that a European will not be chosen again. Also I had opinion that a large number of Italian cardinals will not agree about one name or two names but now I am not so sure if we look on this Angelo Scola candidate whose odds dropped a lot from those initial.
But, my choice is still rated very high, 4.50 at this moment at Betfred.
You have mentioned Italian wining, have you thought of Scola or some other candidate?
The church will primarily seek to operate on political terms. The best example from the past decades being the election of Wojtyla. Currently, with the unification of Europe, on cultural terms mainly, still under progress it will attempt to be present on the continent as much as possible by electing a European representative. They risk losing footing in Europe unless they do so. Africa and South America will still be loyal to the church even if they have to wait another 20 years before they get 'their' Pope.
In the last Pope election my money was on Ratzinger despite him not being the favourite. His main competition was from Italian candidates. This can be the time when an Italian gets the seat again. As you mention they have quite a presence in the voting council. Votes won't disperse. There will certainly be the creation of factions and the emergence of alliances that can favour election of an individual some of the groups will agree on.
I know how easy it can be to associate the re-election of Obama in the US with the notion that the time has come for the church to elect a Pope of African descent but the two, the US and the Catholic church, operate on very different levels. The latter embraces change very late in comparison to the rest of the World, despite the claim that it should provide the correct example.
Something on the lines of "do as I preach ...not as I do".