Back Lausanne Asian Handicap +0.75
Basel is certainly the team with the best players in Switzerland that should win the national title again but I dont think this will be too easy in Lausanne. This season Basel has only won 2 away matches (out of 9). Additionally Basel had a tough EuropaLeague match on Thursday and they have the return match next week which has a very high priority for them. So I would not be surprised if Basel would even rest some of their best players. Overall the AH +0.75 on Lausanne seems to offer decent value here with limited downside. The pitch will be in very bad condition due to snow which will likely reduce the number of goals we see and if Lausanne looses then not by more then 1goal.
The tip is based on statistical output of a model which includes the result of both teams from the past seasons, not just the current one. I select only outputs from the model if the value I see based on historic results is greater then 10%. I manually adjust the model in case a team shows a totally different performance currently then in the previous season.