Connacht +6 at 1.85
Rugby, Europe, Pro12
Ulster is one of big favourites for the title, unfortunately they did a bad start with 2 losses in 2 matchs. The main explanation is that Ulster had to play with a changed team, indeed many players are injured : Best, Afoa, Tuohy, Henderson, Ferris, Wilson, Olding, P.Wallace, Bowe and Trimble are all injured, some of them can be substituted but Best, Afoa, Ferris, Olding or Bowe are clearly one level higher than the substitutes players.
Moreover, Ruan Pienaar, the scrum-half and goalscorer isn't here too because he is playing the Rugby Championship with South Africa.
With all these absences, Ulster isn't superior to Connacht to my mind, then I think that this match is 50-50 and that Connacht can create the surprise at home. Connacht doesn't have key injured players and they can count on one of the best goalscorer of the League with Dan Parks.
So, I think that Connacht has its chances to beat the Ulster, so an handicap of 6 points is good bet cover to my mind.