Good ground at Grand National allows for heavy weight champs
Aintree has been blessed with good weather leading up to the Grand National, and that is good news for horses forced to carry more weight for the race. We at bettingexpert.com have proven the myth once and for all that the better ground, the more weight a horse can carry to reach Grand National glory.
Heavy weight Champs
Victors of the Grand National on good ground have been able to shoulder heavier weights. In fact, on good ground, horses are able to carry almost a full stone more than the winners on soft ground conditions.
Winners like Many Clouds, Neptune Collonges, and Don’t Push It all managed to claim victories on good ground carrying 11st 9lbs, 11st 6lbs and 11st 5lbs, respectively. On soft ground, lighter champions like Rule the World, Numbersixalverde, and Earth Summit, all managed to cross the finish line first carrying only 10st 7lbs, 10st 8lbs, and 10st 5lbs respectively.
With the weather (hopefully remaining) favourable at Aintree for this weekend’s festival, punters should be looking higher up the Grand National race card, picking a highly-rated horse that shouldn’t have much trouble bearing any extra weights.
Stephen Harris’ pick: The Last Samuri
bettingexpert.com’s resident horse racing expert Stephen Harris is pegging The Last Samuri to take the Grand National this year. The Last Samuri placed second last year, but Stephen truly believes that this could be his year, especially with the condition of the ground:
"As conditions rapidly dry up after a sunny and warm week in Liverpool, the confidence behind our bettingexpert selection The Last Samuri has increased dramatically. He now has to carry topweight in the field, but faster ground will mean the burden of 11-10 has little impact on his chance (and several of his main market rivals, such as One for Arthur, have shown their best form in much deeper conditions)."
Check out Stephen’s full breakdown of his naps for the Grand National in the video below, where he suggests other horses to join The Last Samuri if you’re looking for an each-way bet.
The Last Samuri: A winner’s profile
For last year’s Grand National, we did an extensive research article on what the profile of a Grand National winning horse would be. Out of our 3 criteria, we hit 2 right with Rule the World being the right age and a debutant.
This time, Stephen Harris has pegged the Last Samuri who, without Harris’ intention, fulfills 2 of our criteria for a winner: age and starting odds.
A third of all winners of the Grand National have been 9 years old, which The Last Samuri just so happens to be until the 10 days after the race. Additionally, the most common starting price for winners is 14/1—a price that Harris’ nap is currently resting on.
The only criteria The Last Samuri is missing is that he isn’t a debutant. But not to worry, a fifth of Grand National winners do so on their second attempt.
All in all, both weather and statistical conditions seem to be on the side of The Last Samuri.
Disclaimer: the data in the graphic above does not include the results of the 2016 Grand National (2016 winner- Rule the World: Age 9, SP 33/1, Debutant)
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