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How the Super Bowl betting odds reacted to the incredible Patriots comeback


Before the Super Bowl on Sunday, our bettingexpert research predicted that the Falcons would have an incredible 2nd quarter that would lead to them winning the championship. Well, we were half right. Nobody anticipated the amazing comeback of the Patriots—especially sports bettors. Below you can see the confusing odds journey that Tom Brady inspired during last night’s game.

The Odds Defying Patriots betting odds of Super Bowl 51
Click on the picture above to see it full screen

Favourites from the start

Before kick-off, the Patriots were the clear favourites to win the game, starting at ¾ odds. With a scoreless first quarter, it seemed that bettors still had faith in Tom Brady to bring home the fifth victory. Although the odds of them winning lengthened slightly, they were still at evens to win. 

2nd Quarter confusion

As we mentioned in our previous facts piece, the Atlanta Falcons have been putting serious points on the board in the second quarter throughout their season. We predicted that this would happen, but not to the extent that it did.

After a second quarter ending 21-3 in favour of the Falcons, we (like the bettors) had practically called the game. The odds of the Patriots winning had lengthened to 7/1, and that seemed almost merciful. In fact, historically, if a team scores more than 14 points in second half of the Super Bowl, there is a 94.4% chance that they will win. But in the Patriots eyes, that still left them with a solid 5.6% chance of coming back. 

3rd Quarter Collapse

Starting the third quarter with another touchdown, the Falcons were twisting the knife and managed to lengthen the Patriots’ odds to a defeated 24/1. Although the Patriots gained some footing with a touchdown, what they had recovered in the odds (shortened to 10/1) was lost again when they failed to recover their on side kick. If you had a crystal ball, now would’ve been the time to put all your money on New England, as their odds were at their longest at 25/1.

The biggest comeback in Super Bowl history

This is where the odds journey starts to beautifully depict what was happening on the field. Like resuscitating a flat lining patient, Brady got the paddles out and got the vital signs of the Patriots going again. The team’s odds went up and down, as sports bettors were both confused with passion and doubt.

If you didn’t manage to watch the game, you can feel the intensely beating heart that went into the last half of this game just by looking at the odds. The peaks and valleys of bettors jumping on and off the ship is a testament to how the Patriots truly defied expectations at Super Bowl 51.

More Facts from bettingexpert

The odds for this piece were supplied by Matchbook. If you are interested in reading more stories about your favourite sports and teams based on the numbers, check out facts by bettingexpert.