1 - What Is Anytime Goalscorer Betting?
2 - Low Stakes, High Returns
3 - Assessing The Likely Candidates
4 - Add Some Science
5 - Covering The Nil-Nil
What Is Anytime Goalscorer Betting?
Anytime Goalscorer betting (also known as 'To Score' or 'Goalscorer' betting) is as simple as it sounds - so long as the player you've bet on scores at least one goal during ‘regulation time’ i.e. within the designated 90 minutes, plus time added on for stoppages, you win. Goals scored in extra time, for example, do not count, nor do those in penalty shoot-outs. If you choose a sub, however, and he fails to make an appearance, you will have your stake returned. Further, if your player, either starting or coming on as a sub, plays any part in ‘normal time’, be it the full 90 minutes or, at the other extreme, just a few seconds, and fails to score, you lose. Although there are various technicalities such as these, Anytime Goalscorer betting is quite straightforward.
It's worth noting that if a player’s odds seem too high, always check whether they’re actually starting as it’s unlikely they’ll notch if they only get a five minute run-out towards the end of the match. It's also important to note how Anytime Goalscorer rules differ from those of ‘First Goalscorer’, inasmuch as once the first goal is scored, all bets are off, so if you’d somehow contrived to back a sub to get the first goal, that bet would be void and your stake will be returned, as your player wasn’t even on the pitch when the first goal went in.
Low Stakes, High Returns
Every punter secretly loves the idea of low investment and high returns – especially if it means not having to resort to multiple/accumulator betting. Anytime Goalscorer punting is perfect for punters who like to chase big odds and don’t want to risk much cash. By the same token, combining (or Dutching) Anytime Goalscorer bets can still work well for a long-term investment strategy, as Dutching correctly requires only one of your selections to land in order to make a profit.
A Dutch on the Anytime Goalscorer market would work as follows – prices and player names used purely as examples:
Imagine you were happy to risk £10, you could place £3.77 on Smith, £3.40 on Brown and £2.83 on Jones. If Smith managed to score, you’d come out with £33.93 (or £23.93 profit). If Brown notched, you’d pick up £34 (£24 profit) and if Jones bagged you’d win £33.96 (£23.96 profit). You’ve split your stake proportionately determined by the expectation you have of each player scoring. In this example we have determined it is more likely that Smith will score and have invested the greater share of our overall stake with him.
Obviously, two or all three could score! If all three managed to get on the scoresheet, for example, you’d pick up £101.90 (£91.90 profit).
Assessing The Likely Candidates
It’s important to know both teams’ set-piece takers – that is, the people who normally take the direct free-kicks if one is awarded within shooting distance – as well as the likely penalty takers.
Furthermore, take time to identify the centre half who is most likely to come up for corners or free-kicks in dangerous positions. These players tend to be those hard-to-get fantasy league footballers – in other words, the goalscoring midfielder or, better still, the goalscoring defender. Can you imagine how much money you could have made, for example, consistently backing (ex-Manchester United centre half) Steve Bruce in the Anytime Goalscorer market when he notched an incredible 19 goals in all competitions in the 1990/91 season?
Add Some Science
A player quoted at odds of 6.0 to score at any time is a 5/1 shot, so your view on this has to be the scientific one. Does the player in question tend to score, on average, once in every five games or is his scoring record better/worse than this? This is the art of finding betting value. If we simply look at the odds, we can make decide to bet or not based on the implied probability of the odds on offer. In this case, the odds are 6.0. The implied probability is calculated as:
1 / decimal odds
So in this example, odds of 6.0 have an implied probability of 16.7% I.e 1 divided by 6. So does the player we are thinking of betting on have a greater than 16.7% chance of scoring in the match? If we believe so, then betting on him to score at anytime in the match is a value bet.
Furthermore, does the player you’re analysing tend to get most of his goals at home? Does he tend to score against the type of team he is facing in terms of their league position and/or their tactics? Is he ‘due a goal’ (inasmuch as he’s been unlucky not to score in recent weeks due to a dubious offside or great goalkeeping, rather than being hopeless in front of goal)? Is the regular free-kick and/or penalty taker not playing? If so, does the player you’re considering have more chance of taking a penalty or a direct free kick?
Always bear in mind that some degree of thought has been taken by your bookmaker. If a player is 30.0 or more to score at any time there’s usually a very good reason for it – either he very rarely scores, he’s on the bench or he’s in goal!
Covering The Nil-Nil
If you’re desperate to find some excellent odds on anytime goalscorer markets, but secretly reckon the game could be a dour, low scoring affair, fear not as all bookies these days offer a ‘no goalscorer’ market. So, if you reckon it could possibly finish nil-nil then plump for ‘no goalscorer’.
It’s also worth checking terms and conditions as sometimes refunds are given for ‘no goalscorer’ markets if the only goal(s) scored is an own goal. Some bookmakers will even pay out as a settled bet if the above, albeit unlikely, occurrence was to happen. In other words, instead of backing a 0-0 correct score, you’re also backing 0-0 plus any score where all the goals are own goals!
Don’t forget if you’re looking for a ‘no goalscorer’ selection it will only appear in the ‘last goalscorer’ and ‘first goalscorer’ markets. Interestingly, you’ll often find that the price on offer for the two above markets will vary – if ever so slightly – on the Betfair exchange, depending on market liquidity, so be sure to check both prices and pick the best one.