How To Bet On Serie A
Serie A betting offers numerous opportunities to find value throughout the season. While the league may not attract the same attention as it has in the past, Serie A still remains one of the top leagues in the world for football betting. Our detailed guide to betting on Serie A will show you how to approach your Serie A betting this year and enhance your chances of walking away with a profit come end of season.
Betting On Serie A: An Introduction
When it comes to football (and football betting), there are few nations in the world who can match the sheer passion of Italy. While teams at all levels of Italian football are well supported, every fan wants their team to win promotion to the top flight, Serie A. Some of the most successful club sides in the world come from the Italian Serie A while many of the most revered players in the history of the game have played their football in the division.
It’s also a league which has had more than its fair share of controversy. From allegations of doping, homophobic abuse yelled from one manager to another and match fixing scandals, Serie A has had its reputation tarnished on multiple occasions and yet it remains one of the most popular leagues in the world.
2018/19 Serie A Dates
The 2018/19 Serie A season will begin August 19 2018, concluding May 26 2019.
- How Serie A Works
- History Of Serie A
- Odds Explained
- How To Bet On Serie A And Win
- Serie A Betting Statistics
- Betting On Serie A Online
- Serie A Live Streaming
- Serie A Betting Tips
Like all the other major football leagues in Europe, Serie A is a round robin tournament where teams are awarded three points for a win and one for a draw. At the end of the season, the team who amass the highest number of points are crowned the Serie A winners.
However, unlike many other divisions, the fixtures in the first half of Serie A are mirrored exactly in the second half. The two halves of the season are called the andata (going) and the ritorno (return). When they are both completed, all the teams will have played 38 games, one at home and away against all other teams in the league. The nature of this set up gives Serie A a distinct feel and makes the announcement of the Serie A fixture list especially exciting.
Serie A Champions
The Serie A league table is made up of 20 teams drawn from all over the country (although Northern teams outnumber those from the South). Serie A was increased to 20 teams from 18 in 2004 and there are no current plans to change that number.
The Serie A table first ranks clubs by how many points they’ve accrued across the course of the season. However when that number is tied Serie A uses the following criteria in order to rank teams:
- head-to-head points
- head-to-head goal difference
- goal difference
- goals scored.
If teams still cannot be separated come the end of the season it will come down to the drawing of lots.
Serie A European Qualification
Deciding the winners of Serie A is easy but answering the question ‘how many Italian teams qualify for the Champions League?’ is less straight forward. It has changed it recent seasons due to Serie A’s current coefficient rating with UEFA. The top four teams now qualify for the group stage of the Champions League.
Serie A results also decide which Italian teams take part in the Europa League. The team who finish the season in fifth go straight through to the following season’s group stage while the sixth placed side have to qualify and enter the process at the second qualifying round.
European qualification can change come the end of the season though as the winners of the Coppa Italia are given a Europa League spot. If the Coppa Italia winners already qualify for Europe via their league position, that Europa League spot will go to the sixth placed Serie A side.
Serie A Relegation
Finally there is the matter of Serie A relegation. Some European leagues have a playoff system to decide who goes down but it’s much more simple in Italy. At the conclusion of the Serie A season, the three teams who end up with the fewest points from their 38 matches are relegated to Serie B. Serie B then provides the three teams who will replace them in the top flight as of the next season.
The history of organised football leagues in Italy goes all the way back to 1898. That was when regional leagues began sprouting up all around the country. As the game grew in popularity the national administrators realised that it was time to create a national league.
The first Serie A season was the 1929-30 campaign. Those early days of the league were ripe with political in-fighting and scandal but the allure of the game was enough for them to be overcome.
The Serie A title is known as the scudetto (or little shield). The league winners are actually presented with a trophy but the scudetto refers to the shield which is sewn onto the winning team’s shirt for them to wear proudly the following season.
In Serie A history winners have come from many parts of the country but there is one side who are far and above every other when it comes to scudetto wins. Juventus have won the championship 34 times (they’ve also been stripped of titles for their role in the Calciopolli match-fixing scandal) while Milan and Internazionale follow some way behind with their 18 championships apiece. Juve also have the record for most consecutive titles.
No team has played more seasons in Serie A than Inter with 86 and the Milanese team also have the record for consecutive wins with 17 during the 2006/7 season.
When it comes to Serie A top scorers, Juventus are top of the pile for teams with 4,881 goals as of the end of the 2017/18 season. As for players, the top goalscoring honour goes to the late, great Silvio Piola whose 274 goals came between 1929 to 1954.
There was a split before the 1921/1922 Italian season and a second Italian Football Federation, the Confederazione Calcistica Italiana, was formed and set up a separate league away from the Federazione Italiana Giuoco Calcio. The two leagues joined together for the following season.
* denotes the winners of the C.C.I and + denotes the winners of the F.I.G.C
The history of Italian football is fascinating but it is the future of Serie A where we now turn. Specifically, how to profit betting on the upcoming Serie A season.
Italian betting odds have long been a staple of any major bookmaker. They come in two categories. Outright markets concern long term outcomes like the scudetto winners while upwards of a hundred markets are priced up for each individual match.
Serie A Match Markets
There are dozens of football bet types relating to individual Serie A matches. The most popular of these include:
- Match Result 1X2: Selecting the result (Home win, Draw, Away win) at the end of 90 minutes plus added time.
- Asian Handicap: Selecting the winner with each competing team carrying a goals handicap.
- Goal Total Over/Under: Selecting either over or under a specified number of goals.
For a comprehensive list and detailed descriptions of football bet types, please read our How To Bet On Football - Football Bets Explained guide.
Serie A outright betting is very popular as fans of the Italian game look to make the most of their knowledge seeking out value at the bookies. Of the various options available to you it is the Serie A winner market which attracts the most attention year after year. That is still the case even with Juventus’ recent domination of the league.
Below we can see an example of winner odds, in this case they are listed at Paddy Power prior to the kickoff of the 2018/19 Serie A season. These odds will fluctuate during the Serie A season. Clubs that display winning form will see their odds shorten, while clubs that struggle will see their odds drift. Crucial to Serie A winner betting is that you analyse the Serie A fixture schedule (which you can download in Excel format here). If a club is about to enter a run of tough matches or a congested fixture schedule, you may want to wait until they are through that run before backing them, On the other hand, if a club is about to enter a run of easy fixtures, you may want to back them early before they tick off victory after victory and their odds shorten .
Juventus go into the new season as the odds-on favourite to finish victorious once again. However if you're looking to bet on another contender, there is always the option of each way betting. An each way bet is essentially where you place two bets, one bet on the team to win the title and another bet on the team to finish, in the case of Paddy Power's Serie A each way terms, either first or second on the Serie A table.
Most bookmakers offer 1/4 odds on teams to finish in the top 2 of the Serie A table. In this instance if we were to bet on Inter Milan £20 each-way, we would be betting £20 on Inter to win the league at odds of 10.0 and £20 on them to finish in the top 2 at 1/3 the odds of 10.0.
Each way odds are calculated as:
((Each way terms) of (winner odds - 1)) +1
So our £20 each way on Inter Milan, is essentially two bets:
£20 on Inter to win Serie A at 10.00
£20 on Inter to finish top 2 at 2.50
Should Inter win Serie A, we win both our bets. If they finish 2nd, we win our top 2 finish bet, but lose our winner bet.
Each way betting terms vary dependant on which bookmaker you are betting with. So it pays to shop around for the best each way terms not to mention the best odds for the club you want to bet on to win Serie A in 2018/19.
Winner Odds 'Without Juventus'
Another Serie A betting option is the popular ‘Winner Without Juventus’ market. In this market, the bookies simply remove Juve from the market with the winner being settled as either the team who finish second if Juventus win the title, or the team who finish top if Juventus do not.
Given the high level of competition between the likes of Roma, Napoli, Inter and AC Milan, this is a very attractive option to get involved with both pre-season and after the action has got underway.
Top 3 Finish Odds
You can also make the most of the Serie A Top Three market. Again, this is a straight forward market where you are betting on a team to finish in the top three of the Serie A table at the completion of the season.
Serie A betting odds for this market range from the very short (around 1.08 for Juventus to finish in the top three) to the very long (SPAL are as big as 1001.0 with some bookmakers to finish in the Champions League places).
As we’ve seen from the Serie A winner odds, Juventus are the overwhelming favourites once again. All things considered, Juve are due the status of favourites but don’t simply assume that everything will go their way, especially early on in the season. If poor results come in, their odds keep going out. They remain a top quality team but with more changes over the summer it may take the Old Lady time to get up to speed. If you’re not sure that the odds on a Juventus league win offer value before the season starts it could well be worth biding your time somewhat to see if that changes before staking your bet.
The same can be said of the ‘Top Three Finish’ market. The start of the season is an unpredictable time as new managers and players have to find their feet in new surroundings. When it comes to individual matches, there is always the potential for some surprise results and in outright markets such as top 3 finish betting, the prices can be fairly volatile in the early stages. Clearly, Roma’s odds for finishing in the top three will not drastically change if they lose their opening match of the season but a more prolonged run of bad form will have a noticeable effect.
Serie A table position betting doesn't begin and end with Top 3 odds. You can also bet on the following markets listed below:
- Top 6 Finish
- Top 10 Finish
- To Finish Bottom
Away from the top of the league you’ll also find Serie A betting tips concerning who is going to be relegated to Serie B next season.
As you may expect from their huge odds to finish in the top three (or even to win the league), SPAL are amongst the favourites for relegation. However, there are some pretty good odds about if you’ve done your research and found a team that you think will find the going tough this season.
Serie A Season Match Bets
The bookmakers with the most in-depth coverage of Serie A will also price up head-to-head match bets for the season. In these markets you can bet on which of two or more teams will finish above the rest. For example, there is often a great deal of interest in which of the teams from the capital – Roma and Lazio – will finish above the other. You could also bet on which of the promoted teams will fare the best. If you posses an in-depth knowledge of Serie A, then these markets offer a great opportunity to find betting value.
Top Goalscorer Odds
The Serie A outright betting markets concern more than just the teams. As with many other leagues, there is always plenty of money staked on who will be the division's top goalscorer come the end of the Serie A season. Italian football doesn’t exactly have a reputation for being free-flowing and attack minded but there are some very talented strikers and attacking midfielders in Serie A who can go on and outscore the competition.
Mauro Icardi and Ciro Immobile shared the Top Goalscorer award last season, and these two will be amongst the favourites to do the same this season. However, considering the potential for both injury and suspension, not to mention the prospect of being rested during a congested domestic and European fixture list, you might judge these two to be short priced. With Cristiano Ronaldo joining Juventus, he's up with the favourites too. It's certainly an exciting market to bet on!
Serie A top goalscorer betting presents a great chance to identify value if you do your homework a find a diamond in the rough.
Serie A Top Goalscorers
|2007/2008||Alessandro Del Piero||Juventus||21|
|2009/2010||Antonio Di Natale||Udinese||29|
|2010/2011||Antonio Di Natale||Udinese||28|
|2014/2015||Luca Toni||Hellas Verona||22|
Betting on Serie A, like betting on all football leagues, requires discipline and insight. If you're serious about making money betting on Serie A, then there are a number of things you can do to improve your chances of doing so. These apply to football betting regardless of what league, division tournament or betting market your are wagering on. The most important of these include:
- Bet only when there is value
- Specialise in certain markets
- Apply a consistent staking method
- Keep detailed records of your bets
- Have accounts with multiple bookmakers
To learn more about the basics of profitable football betting, please read our How To Bet On Football And Win guide.
Conduct Regular Research And Analysis
Statistically speaking there are a few things that you should remember before betting on Serie A. When it comes to goals, Italian football has a reputation for being a little dull but it’s not all that bad. Last season 47% of all matches ended with over 2.5 goals scored, over half of all games saw both teams scoring and only 8% of all games ended 0-0 (the most common scoreline was 1-1). Let’s be frank, there can be some real stinkers in Serie A but it’s not as bad as you may think.
Another thing to note is that there is a distinct advantage for teams playing at home. All but one side won more points at home than and the vast majority conceded more goals on their travels than they did when playing in front of their own fans.
If you're keen to enhance your betting analysis for the upcoming Serie A season, here are our top sites for Serie A statistics:
- bettingexpert Clash
- ESPN Serie A Stats
- Soccer Stats Serie A
- Serie A Stats WhoScored
- Goal.com Serie A News
Which of Europe's football leagues have the highest goal averages and how does Serie A compare? How often do Serie A matches end without a single goal scored? What is home field advantage worth in Serie A?In this section we'll look at some basic Serie A betting stats, comparing data from the 1,900 Serie A matches played over the last five seasons from 2011/12 to the conclusion of the 2015/16 season, with nine of Europe's most popular football leagues.
Please note that these stats should be used as preliminary analysis only and as a guide for league by league tendencies.
5.1 What Is Home Field Advantage Worth In Serie A?
A common question from football bettors is the value of home field advantage. The table below shows the raw winning percentages for both home and away clubs across ten leagues the last few football seasons.
|League||Home Win %||Draw %||Away Win %|
|Italian Serie A||45.2%||27.0%||27.8%|
|Belgian Pro League||46.5%||25.0%||28.5%|
|English Premier League||44.5%||25.2%||30.3%|
|French Ligue Un||45.1%||27.4%||27.5%|
|Russian Premier League||43.8%||26.5%||29.7%|
|Spanish La Liga||47.9%||23.5%||28.6%|
We can see that in terms of winning percentages, Serie A home clubs won 45.2% of matches played the last five seasons, compared to the 45.3% win rate across all ten leagues. We can also see that Serie A matches saw a slightly higher rate of drawn matches across the same time span, 27% in comparison to the ten league average of 25.3%. In fact this was the second highest rate of drawn matches across the last five seasons, with only France's Ligue Un seeing a higher number of drawn contests.
On average Serie A home teams earned 1.63 league points per home match, compared to away clubs 1.10. The ten league average across the same time frame was 1.61 to 1.14.
But what was Serie A home field advantage worth in terms of a goal advantage? The table below shows the average goals scored for both home and away clubs across the last five seasons.
|League||Home Goals||Away Goals||Home Advantage|
|Italian Serie A||1.50||1.14||+0.36|
|Belgian Pro League||1.62||1.22||+0.40|
|English Premier League||1.54||1.19||+0.35|
|French Ligue Un||1.44||1.07||+0.37|
|Russian Premier League||1.39||1.08||+0.31|
|Spanish La Liga||1.63||1.13||+0.50|
We can see that in terms of goal advantage Serie A home clubs were just shy of the ten league average, with a goal difference for home clubs of +0.36. This mark was also just shy of both the Bundesliga and Premier League.
The +0.36 goal advantage for Serie A home clubs equates to a 0.72 goal swing for Serie A clubs playing at home as opposed to playing away.
The table below shows the average differential between a club's home goal difference and their away goal difference in Serie A matches played the last five seasons. For example, Juventus have been on average a +0.62 goal better team at home as opposed to away the last five seasons. The highest swing in home as opposed to away performance however went to Lazio who were on average a +1.00 goal better team at home the last five Serie A seasons.
5.2 How Often Are Serie A Matches Drawn At Halftime?
Previously we saw that Serie A had the second hight rate of drawn matches across the last five seasons. But how many Serie A matches were drawn at halftime? Below we can see the Home, Away and Drawn match halftime result percentages across both Serie A and nine other European leagues over the last five seasons..
|League||Home Win %||Draw %||Away Win %|
|Italian Serie A||34.5%||43.7%||21.8%|
|Belgian Pro League||34.4%||42.6%||23.0%|
|English Premier League||34.0%||42.3%||23.7%|
|French Ligue Un||34.2%||43.9%||21.9%|
|Russian Premier League||34.5%||42.3%||23.2%|
|Spanish La Liga||37.4%||40.0%||22.6%|
Again Serie A sits just behind Ligue Un, in this case seeing 43.7% of matches played drawn at the halftime whistle, while Ligue Un saw 43.9%. Both Serie A and Ligue Un were way up on the ten league total of 41.5%.
5.3 How Often Do Serie A Home Clubs Lead Halftime/Fulltime?
Halftime/Fulltime (HTFT) betting is always a popular betting market. Given its tendancy for drawn results, how often are Serie A matches drawn at both halftime and fulltime? How often do Serie A home clubs lose after holding a halftime lead? The table below displays the percentages for each combination of results. For example, H/A reflects the home team leading at halftime and the away team then leading at fulltime.
Over the last five seasons, Serie A saw the highest instance of matches ending drawn at halftime, drawn at fulltime with 17.3%, almost 2% higher than the ten league average of 15.5%.
5.4 Who Wins When A Serie A Match Is Drawn At Halftime?
Let's now look at the chances of each outcome when Serie A matches are drawn at halftime. The table below shows the chances of both home and away teams winning a match when the match has been tied at halftime.
|League||Home Win %||Draw %||Away Win %|
|Italian Serie A||36.5%||39.5%||24.0%|
|Belgian Pro League||37.9%||37.9%||24.2%|
|English Premier League||36.0%||36.8%||27.2%|
|French Ligue Un||37.9%||38.4%||23.7%|
|Russian Premier League||33.7%||38.5%||27.8%|
|Spanish La Liga||38.1%||36.6%||25.3%|
We can see again that on average, Serie A had by far the highest instance of matches drawn and halftime going on to be drawn at fulltime across the last five seasons, with a mark of 39.5% compared to the ten league average of 37.4%. Serie A also saw the second lowest success rate for away clubs when a match was drawn at halftime, with just 24% of visitors winning the match when drawn at the half, with only Ligue Un lower at 23.7%.
5.4 What Is The Most Common Winning Margin In Serie A?
What is the most common winning margin in Serie A? Are blowouts of three goals or greater less common in Serie A than other leagues? The table below displays a break down of match results across ten European leagues based on fulltime margins.
|League||Home 3+||Home 2||Home 1||Draw||Away 1||Away 2||Away 3 +|
Over the last five seasons, only Ligue Un saw fewer blowouts of three goals or greater, with 13% of Serie A matches seeing results of this magnitude. This mark was well below the ten league total of 16%.
5.5 How Often Do Serie A Matches End Over 2.5 Goals?
Serie A has a reputation for low scoring and defensive minded football. But how low scoring are Serie A matches really? The table below shows the Over/Under results for Serie A and nine European leagues the last five seasons.
|League||Over 1.5||Under 1.5||Over 2.5||Under 2.5||Over 3.5||Under 3.5|
While Serie A matches were well below average in terms of the standard Over/Under 2.5 goal mark, 48.3% of matches going Over 2.5 goals, compared to the ten league total of 51.1%, two leagues saw lower rates, those being Ligue Un at 44.6% and the Russian Premier League at 45.3%.
5.6 How Often Do Both Teams Score In Serie A?
How often do Serie A matches end with both teams scoring? The table below shows the percentage of matches played the last five seasons that ended with either both teams scoring or either one team/neither team scoring.
|League||Both Teams To Score Yes||Both Teams To Score No|
|Italian Serie A||51.0%||49.0%|
|Belgian Pro League||54.4%||45.6%|
|English Premier League||51.3%||48.7%|
|French Ligue Un||49.7%||50.3%|
|Russian Premier League||47.0%||53.0%|
|Spanish La Liga||49.7%||50.3%|
Despite its low scoring nature, Serie A saw 51% of matches end with both clubs getting on the scoreboard, a mark just shy of the 51.5% ten league total. In fact five leagues saw lower rates of matches ending with both teams scoring, including the high scoring Spanish La Liga.
5.7 How Often Do Serie A Matches End Scoreless?
Given its low scoring reputation,how do matches in Serie A end without a goal scored? The table below shows both first goal rates for both home and away clubs plus the overall rate of scoreless matches the last five seasons.
|League||Home Scores First||Away Scores First||Match Ends Scoreless|
Compared to the 7.5% ten league total, Serie A saw 8.5% of matches end without a goal scored across the last five seasons. This was the highest rate of scoreless draws across the ten leagues, with Ligue Un just short at 8.4% of matches played.
Not all online bookmakers are equal when it comes to their offering for Serie A. Therefore, it is important to carefully choose who to bet with otherwise you could be leaving money on the table. The first thing to consider when choosing your bookies for Serie A is the depth of their market coverage. There’s no point doing your research for a specific bet only to find that the bookmakers you are with won’t offer you a price. This goes both for outrights and match markets.
You also want to consider the value that is being offered to you. Serie A is not as popular as the Premier League when it comes to betting and so there is a temptation for the bookies to not be as competitive with their pricing. For that reason, it is important to have accounts with multiple bookies so that you can place each bet at the biggest price being offered.
When it comes to selecting an online bookmaker there are a number things to consider. For Serie A betting, the most important to consider are:
- The bookmaker's reputation and media profile.
- The diversity of Serie A betting markets available.
- Serie A In-Play betting markets and Cash Out available.
- Serie A betting odds and bookmaker commissions.
- Mobile betting on Serie A matches.
- Welcome Bonus and Serie A promotional offers.
To learn more about selecting the bookmaker best suited to your Serie A betting, please consult our Football Bookmakers guide.
To read detailed reviews of over 50 online bookmakers, please visit our Bookmaker Reviews listing.
And for all the latest Serie A free bets and promotions available, please visit our Free Bets listing.
Making the most of Serie A streaming is an important tool to add to your armoury if you are serious about your Italian football betting, particularly if you're looking to bet in-play. The quality of streaming options varies a great deal between individual bookmakers so it is always worth having accounts with the biggest bookies to ensure you can watch the action to inform your betting.
Which Bookmakers Live Stream Serie A Matches?
Heading into the 2018/10 Serie A season, we can confirm that Ladbrokes will stream Serie A matches live for all UK based customers. For customers outside the UK, please check broadcast details with your bookmaker. In most cases so long as you are not based in Italy, you should be able to watch live Serie A matches via both Ladbrokes.
The criteria to be able to watch Serie A live streams differs from bookmaker to bookmaker, but generally you can watch them as long as you have money in your account or you have placed a bet inside the last 24 hours.
If you prefer your live football on a bigger screen there is a great deal of Serie A on TV for you to enjoy. In Italy every game is broadcast live but on UK TV, BT Sport broadcast the best matches of the weekend as part of their Sunday Night Football show. During the week BT Sport also provide Serie A highlights via their European Football Show so that you can keep up to date with the latest happenings and see every goal.
To learn more, please read our guide to accessing bookmaker live streams.
There are dozens of experts posting Serie A predictions and betting tips every week of the Serie A season. The 2018/19 Serie A season will be no different. No matter which Serie A contest you'd like to bet on, there will multiple tips posted by the bettingexpert tipster community.
While we would love each of our Serie A tipsters to be profitable, it's an unrealistic expectation. But what sets bettingexpert apart from other betting tips websites is the ability to track each tipster's record, not only their football tips, but every division that they post tips on including Serie A.
Best Serie A Tipsters 2015/16
Below are our top Serie A tipsters from the last few campaigns. Which of our best Serie A tipsters will be profitable again in 2018/19?
For the latest tips, please visit our Serie A Betting Tips page.
To learn more about betting tips, please read our guide to following betting tips.