Week 7 NCAA Football Best Bets: Saturday, October 15th
It’s time for a BIG MAC ATTACK, but your cholesterol will not be upset with you because it’s just another weekend of college football action, and we’re heading to the MAC! Our resident NCAA football expert Ej Garr is offering a pair of plays from the Mid-American Conference matches this weekend, and as usual, it’s all about the totals.
In this article:
- Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami RedHawks Preview
- Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami RedHawks Best Bet
- Western Michigan Broncos vs Ohio Bobcats Preview
- Western Michigan Broncos vs Ohio Bobcats Best Bet
Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami RedHawks Preview
October 15, 17:00 (UK time)
College football Saturday always starts at high noon here on the east coast, and among the first matches of the day, we find Bowling Green hosting Miami. We’re seeing a low total here due to these two offenses being rather sluggish this year.
My first concern with this total was the defenses involved because the numbers we see in the rankings are all worth the concern. The Bowling Green passing defense ranks 129th in the country, and when we barely have 130 teams in FBS that tells you where my concerns come from.
Also, by now you know that rankings are simply numbers accumulated from playing 6 other teams that were not Miami, so I take those with a grain of salt. I watched last weekend’s game that Bowling Green played against Buffalo knowing I was going to talk about them this weekend.
We only need one word to describe Bowling Green’s offense… FUMBLE! The Falcons fumbled the ball 4 times in the 38 – 7 loss to Buffalo last weekend, and Aveon Smith is certainly no one to invest our money in. Smith completed a total of 9 passes in a game they were behind the entire time, and I trust this offense none to get anything done.
I just hope the turnovers don’t lead to points being scored by the RedHawk defense that ranks 10th against the run allowing less than 89 YPG. Ironically, Matt McDonald is having a decent year with 13 TD passes to only 2 interceptions for Bowling Green, but it is not translating to points on the scoreboard.
The Falcons’ offense ranks 118th in the country running the ball, and when you have no success on the ground it puts that much more pressure on your QB to do more than he can do. McDonald has distributed the ball well with 8 different receivers owning a TD reception, but a big day against Eastern Kentucky from the FCS level is included in those numbers.
Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami RedHawks Best Bet
I see a 21 – 18 game taking place here and they should stay under the number. It will be 18 – 18 until that final kick of the game separates the winner from the loser.
- Selection: Under 45.5
- Best odds: 1.91 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 4/10
Western Michigan Broncos vs Ohio Bobcats Preview
October 15, 20:30 (UK time)
In direct opposition to that game, how many damn points are there going to be in Kalamazoo on Saturday? Wait, I just wanted to say Kalamazoo if I am being honest, so I am done here!
What’s happening here is we are going to take advantage of the line setters setting a low line because they are not accounting for one thing that I am counting on. I believe that the oddsmakers are afraid to set this total above 60 because it will tip their hand and give away the real bet to make here.
Do you see the rankings? WMU is appearing among the worst offenses in college football, but do you see who they have played thus far? Michigan State, San Jose State, and Pittsburgh? Yeah, your offense would struggle too, and let’s make no mistake that anyone willing to use the words Ohio and defense in the same sentence should be tarred and feathered!
There are 131 FBS programs at the FBS level so feel free to sneak over to the NCAA football rankings and tell me what you see. Ohio is ranked 131st in total yards allowed per game and Ohio is ranked 131st against the pass. Hi, someone has to be the worst in the country and I found them!
On the other hand, Ohio’s passing offense is among the best in the land, as they are averaging 334 passing yards a game ranked 8th in the country. Had Penn State and Iowa State not completely shut down this offense, the numbers would be even better than they look on paper. Those are two teams that know a thing or two about defense, so I am not down on Ohio’s offense a bit.
In my opinion, these two teams might score points on almost every possession of the game, and I expect well over 1,000 yards of offense on Saturday when these two get together.
Kurtis Rourke has no fear of tucking in the ball and using his legs to move the chains, and the Ohio QB is doing a great job of managing the offense this year. With a 14 – 2 TD to INT-ratio, Rourke only needs 56 passing yards to topple the 2,000-yard mark already. Rourke is 5th on the ESPN big board for QB rankings, as he is completing over 70% of his tosses and that obnoxious QB rating of 167.4 sure looks stout!
Ohio State transfer WR Sam Wiglusz didn’t have much of an impact with the Buckeyes, but he sure is enjoying wearing a Bobcat uniform. Wiglusz is seeing the lion’s share of the balls out of Rourke’s hand, and he is up to 440 yards with 5 scoots to the end zone to show for it.
Jack Salopek redshirted last season for the Broncos, and so far he is the guy that Tim Lester is leaving out there to get the job done. Salopek has one big issue throwing the ball to the wrong team as he learns the offense, and I hope his gunslinger approach gets him in a little hot water again this weekend I mentioned in my first game preview that turnovers can be the dynamic no one can account for, and sometimes they lead to points and sometimes it just leads to an end of a long drive.
Western Michigan Broncos vs Ohio Bobcats Best Bet
This game should have everything we hope to produce points for us, so grab this total to go over the number. I expect them both to get 30+ points, so think about team total prop bets.
- Selection: Over 58.5
- Best odds: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 4/10
Odds as of 11:00 am October 14th, 2022. Odds may now differ.