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baseball | Monday, August 1, 2022 1:27 PM (Revised at: Monday, August 1, 2022 2:09 PM)

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Moneyline Best Bet: Gray Powers Texas to Win

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Moneyline Best Bet: Gray Powers Texas to Win
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Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Moneyline Best Bet: Monday, August 1st

The Texas Rangers open their three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles on August 1st. Texas comes into this game having won three of its last four, and they are narrow favourites for game one. Baltimore forced its way into the playoff picture with a 16-9 record in July – the O’s have five more wins than their Monday opponents.

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Tue, Aug 2. 01:05 (UK time)

Rangers ace Jon Gray gets the ball on Monday evening, matching up with Baltimore’s Spenser Hawkins. The Rangers have won seven of Gray’s last nine starts, and the former Colorado right hander has been pitching better and better the deeper we get into the season. Gray has posted back-to-back months with a sub-three ERA.

Hawkins had a 2.35 ERA last month, but his impressive numbers for the season are clearly unsustainable. The soft-throwing righty has an ugly 5.42 xERA with one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league. His fastball and curveball, which make up half of his pitches, have been getting mashed all season long. Texas is the third-most productive team against curveballs this season, and has an above-average offence against right handers since the start of July.

Unlike Hawkins, Gray’s performances are almost exactly in line with his expected numbers. His xERA is a shade lower than his actual mark, and he’s got a career-best strikeout rate. The slider has been dominant throughout 2022, which provides a fascinating contest up against an Orioles line up which has done a lot of damage off sliders this year.
It’s no secret the Orioles have the best bullpen in the Majors, which can keep them in the game even if Hawkins struggles. The Rangers relief corps ranks below average by most metrics, but Gray should be able to take some of the pressure off by pitching deep into this contest. He’s thrown six or more innings in his last three starts.

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Best Bet

For all the impressive play from Baltimore over the last few weeks, their road record remains poor at just 22-31. A series loss to the Reds isn’t the ideal preparation for facing a Texas team with their best starter on the hill.

It doesn’t take much to talk yourself into backing the Orioles as underdogs here, but we’re siding with the home team on Monday night. Hawkins’ underlying numbers are too poor to have any faith that he can keep producing as he has of late. Gray should be able to keep the Orioles bats quiet, after they scored just 10 runs in three games in Cincinnati.

  • Selection: Texas Rangers to Win (OT Incl)
  • Best Odds: 1.67 (Boyle Sports)
  • Stakes: 5/10

Odds as of 3:00 pm August 1, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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