Brandon Nakashima vs Rinky Hijikata Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/3/24

The final tennis preview of the day comes from the U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship, from Houston, Texas.

Our Nakashima vs Hijikata prediction is exactly the kind of match that would normally be seen on hard courts, but with the dirt of Houston playing quicker than any other clay venue at sea level, these two should be just fine. Hijikata’s win probability is only 34.5% while Nakashima is favored to win at 1.44 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.

The ATP 250 event does play more like a hard-court tournament and that’s why we see so many predominantly hard courters in the draw here year after year.

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Nakashima vs Hijikata Prediction: Hijikata has the Game to Keep Contest Close

• Prediction: Over 22 Games
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as of 3:45 am UK Time on April 3rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Normally I wouldn’t go anywhere near a match between these two guys on a clay court. In slower, high-bouncing conditions, it would almost be a matter of who could simply commit fewer errors or play less poorly.

In Houston, where the conditions play much faster than any other non-altitude clay tournaments, I think these two will be just fine and we can almost look at this as though we’ve got two decent servers playing on a medium to medium-fast paced court.

In that case, I do like getting the total here at just 22 games, rather than 23. Our Nakashima vs Hijikata prediction is for the match to go over 22 games.

Read on for more expert insights.

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Brandon Nakashima Recent Form

After a terrible season that saw him drop out of the top 100, Nakashima used the start of the 2024 season to drop back down to the Challenger Tour level in an attempt to gain some momentum and confidence.

It looks as though the plan has worked, with Nakashima already tallying over 20 victories and re-joining the world’s top 100. One concern from a year ago remains though. His break percentage so far this season at the Challenger level is under 20%. At the main tour level, it’s just over 20%.

Though he’s a decent athlete and not a poor mover, that return game continues to struggle to break his opponents with any kind of consistency.

You may think that clay court tennis would help, but this isn’t normal red clay and plays much quicker than typical clay courts.

I don’t doubt that his impressive hold percentage should help him here, but with the court speed still being fairly quick despite the surface, I’m happy to just back these two to play a close, serve-dominated match.

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Rinky Hijikata Recent Form

After his first-round win against Chris Eubanks (a match against a poor statistical returner that went to two tiebreaks), Hijikata jokingly signed the camera “Dirtballer.”

Another player that prefers quicker surfaces, it’s no surprise that his first main draw win at the main tour level on clay happened at this tournament.

Hijikata has stepped it up this season so far in the aggression department and his serve has taken strides as well. The result? A few early season quarterfinals, mixed in with some early exits in slower court tournaments and thanks to matches where he wasn’t hitting his spots.

Wednesday brings a chance to keep things close in a match that should be fairly serve-centric and reach his third quarterfinal of the 2024 season.

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Brandon Nakashima vs Rinky Hijikata H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two. Statistically, it’s tough to really look at much data and take away anything from it confidently.

This is the first week of the 2024 clay season, and because this is a fairly unique clay event, using prior year clay court data doesn’t seem like the most reliable thing to do either.

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