Yue Yuan vs Varvara Gracheva Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, March 7th 2024

It’s another WTA preview from the BNP Paribas Open. Our Yue Yuan vs Varvara Gracheva prediction gives us another chance to potentially exploit a bit of an overvaluation of a player who is coming off a really strong week but could struggle in the conditions on offer at this event.

Gracheva’s win probability is only 25.3% while Yuan is favoured to win at 1.26 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 20.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

• Yue Yuan vs Varvara Gracheva Prediction
• Yue Yuan Recent Form
• Varvara Gracheva Recent Form
• Yue Yuan vs Varvara Gracheva H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

---

Yue Yuan vs Varvara Gracheva Prediction

• Predictions: Gracheva +1.5 sets & Gracheva to win
• Best Odds: 2.13 & 3.95
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle & Unibet
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on March 7th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

This one is a very similar handicap to yesterday’s bet against Katie Boulter. Now, I wouldn’t say that Varvara Gracheva has the same upside as Camila Giorgi (though I’d make the case the same applies to Yuan), but she’s another competent player at incredibly high odds taking on an in-form player who is playing in polar opposite conditions to those she prefers.

All that said, give me Gracheva in multiple capacities!

Read on for more expert insights.

---

Yue Yuan Recent Form

Much like the above-mentioned Boulter, Yuan enters Indian Wells coming off a title last week. Now, she did it in Austin at a smaller event (a 250, rather than a 500), but she deserves credit for a week that saw her drop just one set in five matches nonetheless.

There are a few reasons I’m sceptical when it comes to carrying that success over to this week. First, the conditions change drastically. From relatively quick courts that saw her powerful, flat groundstrokes starve her opponents for time, she moves to higher bouncing slow courts that should allow Gracheva to track more down and make a somewhat erratic Yuan hit that extra ball and possibly commit more errors.

The second is that Yuan has always had trouble backing up strong weeks. With the impressive flat-hitting power comes an equally unsustainable game style. Sure, she won that title and made the semifinals in Hobart as a qualifier this year, but she’s also lost in the opening round twice, the second round once and failed to make the main draw on another occasion already this season as well.

Finally, she’s not playing a qualifier or wild card or lower-level direct entry. She’s taking on Gracheva, who is streaky in her own right, but has a decent first serve, can dictate behind the forehand and probably has fewer issues with slower courts than Yuan.

Varvara Gracheva Recent Form

Not going to lie to you guys here. It has NOT been pretty for the Russian-turned-Frenchwoman in the last five weeks or so.

Not only is she 0-4 since the Australian Open, but she’s lost those four matches by an average of nine games. Perhaps that alone means I shouldn’t be anywhere near this bet, but I can’t help but think that she’s more adept at playing on slower surfaces and is still a top-75 player despite her recent trials and tribulations.

She’s fairly tall for the women’s circuit, has a sneaky first serve and can dictate play behind her forehand. I’m not sure why she’s been so erratic of late, but perhaps more time to set up her shots will do her some good.

Either way, the matchup isn’t the worst for her, she’s still a talented player and the price is worth a shot.

Yue Yuan vs Varvara Gracheva H2H – Stat of the Match

I could point to the 2-0 lead for Gracheva as many would as some reason to bet on her in this spot. Truth is, they’re both much better players now and matches four and five years ago mean very little in the grand scheme of things, even if they took place on a hard court.

As bad as Gracheva has been lately, I can’t get to the point where she only wins this match one time in four. Perhaps she is as bad as her recent form suggests. I can deal with losing a bet in a lopsided fashion at these odds.

Should she be able to put her putrid performances behind her, this is a great spot to get back on track against someone who may be confident, but whose game she should be able to break down in the desert.

---

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.