Even if the NFL season is very short, there are plenty of matches played where you can make your predictions. A great thing about the league is that there’s a lot of data being collected and shared which you can use to your advantage. Combining it with our experts’ opinion, you will have enough information to make the best betting decision.
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The curtains have closed on the 2025-26 season, and NFL Superbowl LX will be remembered as the night the “Dark Side” defense returned to the summit. On February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, the Seattle Seahawks (14-3) dismantled the New England Patriots (14-3) with a 29–13 victory. For those who followed the NFL betting markets throughout the winter, the result was a validation of Seattle’s sustained statistical dominance and a sharp reminder of how elite coaching can reshape a franchise.
The Seahawks’ second Lombardi Trophy in franchise history was built on the back of a relentless defensive unit that many NFL predictions compared to the legendary Legion of Boom. Under Mike Macdonald’s guidance, the Seahawks held the Patriots scoreless in the first half – a rare feat in the modern era of the NFL Superbowl.
While the scoreline suggests a comfortable win, the game was a tactical chess match. Seattle’s offense, led by the “resurrection” of Sam Darnold, was hyper-efficient. Darnold avoided the turnovers that plagued his early career, finishing with 194 yards and a crucial touchdown pass to AJ Barner. However, the true engine was running back Kenneth Walker III, who earned MVP honors with 135 rushing yards. His performance not only secured the win but also delivered a massive payout for those who backed his “Anytime TD” and “Over Rushing Yards” in the NFL betting prop markets.
Heading into the game, the Seahawks were consensus 4.5-point favorites. Most expert NFL predictions favored Seattle to cover the spread, citing their superior defensive front against a young Drake Maye. Indeed, Seattle covered the -4.5 comfortably, winning by 16 points.
Another key factor in NFL betting was the Point Total, which closed at 45.5. Despite an explosive 17-point fourth quarter from Seattle, the game finished with a combined 42 points, meaning the “Under” hit for the third time in the last four Super Bowls. This defensive-heavy trend was a centerpiece of several sharp NFL predictions that correctly anticipated the Patriots’ offensive line would struggle against Seattle’s interior pressure.
As we transition into the 2026 NFL offseason, the landscape of NFL betting already looks toward Super Bowl LXI in Los Angeles. With the Seahawks established as the new “bully on the block” and the Patriots proving that the Mike Vrabel era is a force to be reckoned with, the early NFL predictions for next season suggest these two could very well meet again in the postseason.
If you’re thinking of betting on the NFL, a good start is to consider a large sample size of betting stats. This can help you identify historical biases present in the market and advantages for teams in certain situations. Let’s first look at straight-up win-loss betting stats.
Below we can see win and loss percentages for teams in certain situations. For example, we can see that home teams win just over 57% of football games. Historically home-field advantage has been worth around 3 points, but this has been challenged recently, with many now believing the advantage to be around 2 points. We can also see an advantage for teams coming off a bye week. Teams in such situations have won just over 55% of their games since 2003.
| Situation | WIN PCT | LOSS PCT |
|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| Away Teams | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| Favourites | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| Underdogs | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| Home Favourites | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| Home Underdogs | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| Away Favourites | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| Away Underdogs | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| After A Bye Week | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| After A Win | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| After A Loss | 45.8% | 54.2% |
When we consider picks against the spread, we can identify a few market biases to consider when betting on NFL games. Firstly, away teams have won just over 51% of bets against the spread since 2003, likewise, underdogs have won almost 51%.
As a result, we can see that underdogs playing away games have won against the spread almost 52% of the time. While 52% is not a strike rate to profit given standard bookmaker odds of 1.90 for NFL spread betting, it is certainly a bias to keep in mind. Further, we can see that teams coming off a bye have covered the spread in just over 52% of games.
| Situation | ATS WIN PCT | ATS LOSS PCT |
|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| Away Teams | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Favourites | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Underdogs | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| Home Favourites | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Home Underdogs | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Away Favourites | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Away Underdogs | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| After A Bye Week | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| After A Win | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| After A Loss | 50.5% | 49.5% |
When we look at points totals, we can see a distinct bias in games featuring teams from the same division, with those games finishing under the points total line just over 53% of the time since 2003. This can be explained by the fact that divisional teams play each other twice each season and are therefore defensively better prepared than when playing teams out of division.
In non-division games and non-conference games, where teams play each other rarely, these games have finished with over the points total line, almost 52% of the team—another bias to keep in mind when betting on NFL points totals.
| Situation | OVER WIN PCT | UNDER WIN PCT |
|---|---|---|
| Conference Games | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Division Games | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| Playoff Games | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Non-Conference Games | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Non-Division Games | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Regular Season Games | 49.7% | 50.3% |
Here’s a table summarizing recent Super Bowl winners, their opponents, and the betting odds for the winners before the game. These odds reflect the balance of power as perceived by oddsmakers and bettors prior to kickoff.
| Year | Winner | Opponent | Score | Pre-Game Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Kansas City Chiefs | Philadelphia Eagles | 22-40 | +120 |
| 2025 | Kansas City Chiefs | Philadelphia Eagles | 22-40 | +120 |
| 2024 | Kansas City Chiefs | San Francisco 49ers | 25-22 | +110 |
| 2023 | Kansas City Chiefs | Philadelphia Eagles | 38–35 | +105 |
| 2022 | Los Angeles Rams | Cincinnati Bengals | 23–20 | -200 |
| 2021 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Kansas City Chiefs | 31–9 | +140 |
| 2020 | Kansas City Chiefs | San Francisco 49ers | 31–20 | -120 |
| 2019 | New England Patriots | Los Angeles Rams | 13–3 | -140 |
Leading up to a matchday, our best tipsters will carefully securitise every possible factor regarding those upcoming matchups. Only after careful analysis of every factor do they come up with their expert NFL picks today.
Our NFL experts have a lot of knowledge about the sport and they follow trends to make informed decisions. They carefully choose the best bets before posting because their success isn’t only in providing a bet, instead, they are trying to win the competition as well.
A quick check of any of our top betting tipsters’ profiles will quickly reveal the total Profit and Yield that each tipster has made to date.
Want to learn more about American Football? Visit the bettingexpert Academy and read our American Football Betting Guide.
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