Talking Betting With......David Reid
What are the keys to betting on the Premier League successfully? Today we continue our Talking Betting series, as we talk all things football betting with David Reid, founder of Paradigm Picks.
How did you become interested in betting?
I would say that my interest in betting came first from my interest in sports. As long as I can remember, I have played and watched competitive sports. I have always been fascinated with the idiosyncrasies of sports teams, clubs, and professional athletes.
Of course, soccer was always a favourite of mine to play and I remember the 94 World Cup had a great impact on my developing fascination with the game. Before that World Cup, soccer was seen as foreign, exotic, and possibly a bit strange here in the States and it wasn’t until a few years later though that we got any real televised coverage of the European game. It was around the time when I was playing varsity soccer for my High School when we started getting the Premier League on television where I lived. I couldn’t get enough of it.
Do you remember your first bet?
I was travelling across the UK during the summer of 2008 with a classmate and remember when we encountered the multitude of betting shops in the UK, which of course are non-existent in the United States.
The Euro’s were going on and Turkey was having a great run at that time. I remember thinking to myself, “I know football as well as anyone and I know who is going to win these matches.” We were absolutely broke and I figured I could win some easy money. Knowing what I know about betting now, this of course was a horrible idea; betting money I couldn’t afford to loose. At the time though, I just knew the Germans would get past Turkey, and luckily they did. It was really a fantastic match as well, with Lahm getting the winner in stoppage time.
What sports have you been most successful betting on?
Football will always be my speciality as that is what I am most knowledgeable about and have been most successful at. I am also getting more and more involved with grand slam tennis as well. I have always been a big tennis fan and I believe right now is a great time to follow and bet on the sport. There are so many great players at the moment and lots value to be had.
Formula 1 has been good to me this season as well. One of my close friends is a motor sports fanatic and knows absolutely everything about F1. He has been a great resource.
How would you describe your betting philosophy?
I’m not a numbers guy and I usually don’t pre-price lines. I know that many pros insist that to be a successful bettor, you must pre price your lines but really this notion is only half correct. You can be diligent in your pricing efforts, but if the information you use to come up with your prices is incomplete or incorrect, then those prices aren’t worth much are they?
The key for me is just having an overall, deep understanding of the event in question and the various players, teams, and managers involved. I don’t put too much weight on any single aspect leading up to a match. You have to look at the whole picture, formulate your opinion on the possible outcomes and compare that vision to the lines on offer. If you do this correctly, the value will show itself to you.
What are the 3 things you think make a successful bettor?
Like most pros will tell you, controlling your emotions and exercising self-control are the absolute most important traits you can have as a bettor. I try to be extremely selective when picking lines and I guard my bankroll as if it were my life. That is first and foremost. It is much easier to not loose a bet than to win one. I know that sounds quite intuitive but it is very important. It is my knowledge of myself, and my process, which tells me when to make a move on a line and when to sit out. To be a good bettor, you must be a very disciplined one.
Secondly, I truly enjoy the process of selecting bets. I love watching as much football as possible and reading everything about it that I can get my hands on. Everyone loves to hit a winner, but to be a successful bettor you must get satisfaction from the actual process of doing research to make the selection.
I also get a great deal of pleasure in writing up my tips for others to read. If I can’t defend and explain the logic of my pick in convincing style, then I probably shouldn’t be taking it myself should I? I will never offer a pick that I wouldn’t back myself.
What was your worst loss?
My worst ever loss was on Chelsea at QPR last season. I was in Vegas for this one and I was so confident that Chelsea would win that I put down a very large bet on the blues. This was an amount that I would normally spread out on a number of matches over a couple weekends to give you an idea.
I remember Chelsea were absolutely flying under Di Matteo early last season and QPR had of course been abysmal. That loss stung a lot, but I credit it for giving me the drive to grind even harder the rest of the season to get it back. That loss was a key for my growth as a bettor because it really showed me just how important bankroll management is to long term success. I am probably the only person in the world who actually lost money betting against QPR last season.
What was your best win?
It’s difficult to name a specific one. I have learned not to make disproportionately large bets and I like to keep my average odds around evens, so therefore I don’t really hit many “jackpot wins”. For me, it’s more about finding consistent, small returns.
I do remember a stretch last season though where I was hitting absolutely everything spot on; long odd draws etc. Like some professional poker players, I do believe in “rushes”. I think its more the confidence you build during a purple patch, that allows you to start getting really creative on some lines. Of course, I try to never get ahead of myself but there have been times when I have felt really in tune with what’s going in football and felt like I knew just how a stretch of fixtures was going to play out. You’ve got to take advantage of those runs.
How would you advise new bettors or aspiring professionals?
I would advise to start very small. You must gain an appreciation for the satisfaction of winning not just the amount of money won. Over time your bank roll will grow into something substantial.
Also, do not get mentally or emotionally defeated by losing stretches. All professional betters have poor spells. The last thing you want to do is chase these losses and put yourself out of business. Take your time, and reduce you stakes when you’re in a poor stretch of form. Over time, if your strategy is proven and you have a successful edge, results will start to go back in your favour.
What are your personal ambitions when it comes to betting?
Due to the antiquated and unjust laws here in the States, I am limited in what I can do in professional betting at the moment aside from getting to Vegas when I can.
Right now I am enjoying providing a service that helps others pick winning lines and achieve positive bankroll growth. Most of all I enjoy the intellectual stimulation of “solving the puzzle” and finding these winners.
Where do you see betting 10 years from now?
I would like to see betting become more accessible to people living in the United States. I praise the work that professional poker players have done in this country to give professional and serious amateur bettors a positive image in the mainstream of society.
Some big court decisions have come down in recent years that have recognised poker as a game of skill that should be allowed by law. Not much is happening for us sports bettors but it is good to at least see a trend toward the loosening of restrictions. I think we are probably a long way from seeing betting exchanges here in the USA but I sure hope to see the day!
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