Casa Pia AC v Vitoria de Guimaraes Tipovi za kladjenje 28-12-2025

Casa Pia come into this fixture with fragile league form, losing 5 of their last 8 Primeira Liga matches and conceding heavily against Braga, Estrela and Alverca. Vitória Guimarães have been more competitive in league play, picking up away wins at Rio Ave and Tondela and keeping games tight even in defeat. The head-to-head record further supports a narrow contest, with 5 of the last 6 league meetings ending either level or separated by a single goal. Given Casa Pia’s defensive volatility and Vitória’s ability to stay within games, the +1 handicap looks stretched. At 3.90, the price appears well above what recent league form and historical matchups suggest.

Casa Pia won 2-1 recently vs CD Tondela but has just 1 win in last 5; Vitória lost 4-1 to Sporting CP but won 2 of last 5. Head-to-head: 2 wins each, 3 draws in last 5, with Vitória's latest 1-0 win. Vitória's defense eyes clean sheet vs Casa Pia's weak attack