Blog
5 Pointers for the 2012 Cheltenham Festival
By Andrew posted on 27-Jan-12 16:41.
Twitter: @Stephenh61
Email : stephen at bettingexpert.com
Where is the early value at this years Cheltenham Fesitval? With the festival just a month away, in our new regular racing editorial, BettingExpert's racing analyst Stephen shares his thoughts and tells us which horses are deserving of your investment at Cheltenham this year.
With March now a month away, NH racing fans begin to feel that eager sense of anticipation as the highlight of the entire season gets ever closer. With running plans not cast in stone for many of the protagonists it is essential to bet with a layer offering the valuable "non runner no bet" stipulation.
We have selected five wagers to add to your ante-post portfolio that can provide a vital edge when the festival begins. This will hopefully put BettingExpert followers in a strong position on the day.
1- BIG BUCKS
8-13 WILLIAM HILLS - World Hurdle ***** WIN
The champ has continued in unstoppable fashion this season, extending his winning run to 14. Any slight doubts about his going right handed swept away last time as he was always travelling smoothly for most of the way, just shaken up briefly as the leader pressed on 3 out, soon covering that move and powering away in the straight, not needing to be anywhere near his best but impressive in the manner of victory and remaining very hard to oppose so far as another World Hurdle bid is concerned. This is a short price but 8-13 may seem very fair on the day and it is hard to see any of the present geneartion getting him off the bridle.
2-GRUMETI
10-1 BETFRED TOTE - Triumph hurdle ** EACH-WAY
He was useful on the flat and was unfortunate not to follow up his Taunton win last time at Newbury. He remains a serious contender for the Triumph Hurdle, travelling strongly all the way and 8 lengths up and cruising when he fell 2 out, looking none the worse afterwards. He appeals as by far the best English juvenile seen out and with recent history suggesting the Irish challenge may come up short, he is well worth an each-way investment at this stage.
3-LONG RUN
5-2 General price - Gold Cup **** WIN
Beaten twice this season by his old foe but still appeals as the one to beat, and this course plays to his stamina strengths. Last time he confirmed the positive impression created at Haydock and lost nothing in defeat against one of the outstanding chasers, beaten fair and square but still with every chance of gaining a second win in the Gold Cup, his form and that of the winner head and shoulders above that of any of their likely rivals at the moment, tactics plus less fluent (but not poor) jumping making a difference to this outcome, closing strongly come the end after Kauto Star had essentially sealed the race when pressing on after the twelfth, the longer trip at Cheltenham more in his favour than the winner's.
4-AL FEROF
13-2 Coral - Arkle *** WIN
Finished a very creditable third behind Somersby in the VC Chase at Ascot recently and will be suited by this stiffer course if renewing rivalry. He appeals as sure to be shorter on the day if choosing this option and is a young, unexposed chaser firmly on the upgrade. He didn't look himself beforehand last time, not taking the eye and appearing as if he'd be sharper with the run behind him, and he was a little flat at various stages of the race, nevertheless running right up to form against much more experienced chasers-he remains a very strong contender for the Arkle at Cheltenham, for which he's likely to be trained to the minute; he responded well when pushed along and had every chance in the straight, going less well than the other pair and having to give best before the last.
5-CINDERS AND ASHES
12-1 General price - Supreme Novice Hurdle ** WIN
Won readily in the deep ground last time out but trainer Donald McCain reported he would do far better on a decent surface and appeals as the value choice in a race he has been targeted at all season. He continues to make an excellent impression and looks firmly on target for the Supreme after another easy win, not actually having to improve to land this Grade 2 contest with only 2 in opposition but once more most impressive in landing the odds, jumping and travelling most fluently again and firmly in control when flattening the last, just kept up to his work.
Best Wishes with all your festival wagers and please watch out daily for the Hot Horses that provide exclusive information about what is being supported by the warmest accounts with the major firms.
You can follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenh61
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Who wins a NBA game when it goes into overtime?
By Andrew posted on 24-Jan-12 12:28.
Twitter: @AndrewBexpert
Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com
Which team is more likely to win when a NBA game goes into overtime? The home team? The favourites? The underdogs? As the NBA season is in full swing, today on the blog Andrew takes a look at the question.
Over the last 10 NBA seasons, roughly 6% of games have extended to overtime. Today on the blog I take a look at what happens when a NBA game does head into the extra period. Who is more likely to win? Do home clubs excel in overtime? Do underdogs fall away when going into extended minutes? I will try to answer each of these questions and more.
Home vs Away
Firstly let's do a simple home v away breakdown. Over the last 10 NBA seasons, home clubs won just under 52% of all overtime games. When the game went into a single overtime period, home clubs were consistent, winning just under 52% of games.
When the game went into double overtime, road clubs won 51% of the time, although the sample size was just 100 games played.
Lastly, though an even smaller sample size, home clubs were far superior when a game went into triple overtime, winning just under 71% of the time.
Home favourites vs Away favourites
But let's get into some betting analysis. The chart below shows the overtime winning percentages for both home favourites and away favourites over the last 10 NBA seasons.
As we can see, when the home club starts the game as favourites, they win in overtime just over 56% of the time. This was over a sample size in excess of 500 games.
You might have thought that home underdogs would do better, but over the last 10 NBA seasons, away favourites have beaten home dogs in overtime just over 57% of the time, across a sample size of over 200 games.
Favourites big & small
Ok, now let's dig a little bit deeper. The chart below shows the overtime winning percentages of both home favourites and away favourites grouped by rank of favouritism.
We can see that when home clubs started the game as a favourite of at least 9 points, when the game went to overtime, they won just over 72% of the time. When home clubs started favourites between 6 and 8.5 points, they won in overtime just over 61% of the time.
The most interesting observation is that when the game's starting betting line was between home clubs as favourites of at most 5.5 points all the way down to the away club being favourites of at most 2.5 points, the match was pretty much a 50-50 proposition when heading into extra time. In these situations, the home clubs won in overtime just over 49% of the time the last 10 NBA seasons. And importantly, these games consituted roughly 50% of all overtime games played over that span.
Finally, when away clubs started favourites of at least 3 points up to favourites of 6 points, they won in overtime just under 57% of the time, while when away clubs were favourites of at least 6.5 points, they won in overtime over 77% of the time.
So what did we learn?
Well for one thing we learned that while home favourites of 6 points or more and away favourites of 3 points or more win at a reasonably expected rate, there is a sweet spot inbetween where overtime games are a bit of a coin toss.
We also can see that away favourites tend to do a little bit better than home favourites. For example, home club favourites of at least 6.5 points won in overtime just under 66% of the time, while away favourites of the same kind won in overtime over 77% of the time.
You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert
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10 Betting Facts for the NFL Conference Championships
By Andrew posted on 17-Jan-12 15:27.
Twitter: @AndrewBexpert
Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com
It's NFL Conference Championship weekend as in the NFC title game the Giants visit San Francisco and in the AFC the Ravens visit New England. On the blog today Andrew delivers 10 facts that could help you find the value line this weekend.
Fact 1
The Giants head to San Francisco off their stunning win at Green Bay in the Divisional Round. However, teams playing away in the Championship Game coming off an underdog road win in the Divisional Round are 11-17 against the line since 1981.
Fact 2
New England made easy work of Denver in the Divisional Round, winning by a comfortable 35 points at home easily covering the line of 13.5 points. While teams playing at home in the Championship Game coming off a home game in which they covered the line are 25-19 against the line since 1981, but 2-4 against the line coming off a win of more than 30pts in the Divisional Round.
Fact 3
San Francisco pulled off the home upset win against the Saints in the Divisional Round. Teams playing at home coming off an underdog win are 4-0 against the line in the Championship Game since 1981.
Fact 4
The Giants have covered the line in their last 4 games. Clubs playing on winning streak against the line of 4 are 2-9 against the line in the Championship Game since 1981 and 1-7 against the line when playing in a Championship Game on the road.
Fact 5
A great deal of the Giants success against Green Bay was due to winning the turnover battle. Teams playing away in a Conference Championship game coming off a Divisional playoff in which they had 3 less turnovers than their opponents are 8-3 against the line in Championship Game since 1981, but 1-5 against the line when they won the turnover battle by 4 or more turnovers.
Fact 6
New England held the Broncos to just 10 points in their home Divisional win last weekend. Teams playing at home in a Championship game that held their opponents to 10pts or fewer in the Divisional Round are 15-9 against the line since 1981 and 26-17 against the line both home or away.
Fact 7
The 49ers and the Saints was a classic shootout with both clubs combining for almost 900 total yards. Teams that played in a Divisional playoff where both teams combined for over 750 yards offence, are 8-19 against the line in the Championship Game since 1981.
Fact 8
Despite winning the game, the 49ers were out-gained against New Orleans by 65 yards. Teams that were out-gained by their Divisional opponents by 50 yards or more are 0-5 against the line in the Championship Game at home since 1981 and 3-10 against the line either home or away.
Fact 9
New England punished the Broncos on the scoreboard and in the boxscore, out-gaining Denver by 257 yards in total offence. Teams that out-gained their Divisional opponents by 200 yards or more are 0-6 against the line in the Championship Game at home since 1981 and 1-8 against the line either home or away.
Fact 10
The 49ers combined with the Saints for 78 total points, while the Giants combined with the Packers for 57. When both clubs in a Championship game went Over the Total line in their Divisional playoffs, the Championship game has gone Over 8-3 since 1981.
You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert
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When are we in our punting prime?
By Andrew posted on 17-Jan-12 04:55.
Twitter: @Stephenh61
Email : stephen at bettingexpert.com
At what stage in life are we most primed to be a successful punter? On our blog today Stephen takes a look at how our potential to succeed in the betting game changes as we grow with experience.
Where are you in the betting cycle of life? And what experiences have you had so far in the ever changing world of betting?
Age 18-21
We all enter the world of gambling a bit similar to a child entering a sweet shop. Its an amazing new world and the pitfalls are not yet apparent. We tend to bet in a very recreational manner, perhaps accompanied by alcohol and watching live sports with mates. Bets are probably relatively small and not price sensitive at all. We use a layer who we have seen an advert for or got a free offer and tend to have spells of smashing away dependent on what else is happening in life. Often bets will be multiples or trying to win the lottery by finding huge odds accumulators. In summary these punters are ideal fodder for the betting industry.
Of course not all newbies fit this stereotype. Pat Veitch in his excellent autobiography "Enemy Number 0ne" details how he set up an extremely profitable tipping line whilst studying maths at Cambridge University, having several phonelines in his student lodgings manned by pals, and building up a huge customer base because of his amazing hit-rate at finding winners. He is now the leading pro-punter of horses in Britain and owns a large string of properties and racehorses as a result of his long established success.
Most of us though are mere mortals at this stage of life and tend to find our way by regular failures on the betting front. I remember still with a feeling of embarrassment getting my first ever "credit" account with William Hill in the 1990's and betting wildly between the odd politics lecture at university. The following summer was spent grafting in a number of positions to repay a rather large debt that was obviously accrued. (I blush everytime I see a lawnmower having cut more lawns in 8 weeks than most people do in a lifetime.)
Age 21-25
This is the beginning of a golden age in ones betting "career". The initial errors of the novice punter have been overcome, the temptation to chase any losses have hopefully eroded and one has hopefully gained experience in a certain field where specialising ensures that the opinion formed is a decent one. The importance of getting value becomes clear and the achievement of regular betting profits is within reach.
Personally this time in my life was slightly different as I became a bookmaker in my own right at the local greyhound stadium as well as betting fairly heavily on horse racing on the betting exchanges and with on-line layers. I recall with fondness these "hungry" years on both sides of the fence as one had very few responsibilties or distractions, and was totally focussed on finding an edge wherever possible. There was no magic formula for success, but just pure hard graft, watching videos (as they were then, no DVDs or rapid access to replays via downloads) and making endless notes on the run-styles/form/analysis of many thousands of horse and greyhound races. This gave me a fairly unique insight and being a layer at the course meant I had to be really on the ball to stay ahead of the game. If I ever made an error in pricing the on-course punters would very soon tell me in hard cash!
Age 26-30
A difficult time for all punters when life can sometimes compete with the abiltity to bet profitably. Many people settle down, buy property, have children etc etc and all these amazing things can have a negative effect on the ability to focus totally. Also having a growing career can mean time for betting professionally is at a premium.
I remember my typical day in my mid/late 20s was something of a whirlwind and now as I am a bit older I can't imagine how it was possible...
6am - Up and get ready for salaried job (senior trader with large spread-betting firm in London)
8am- 5pm - Price up and trade live the days main horse race meetings - (around 20 different markets)
5pm - Taxi across London to Paddington ....Train to Reading (on board price up next days horses)....Taxi to greyhound stadium.
7pm....Final pricing of dog card ....then price up and bet on 12 greyhound races with a staff of three (clerk, bagman, tictac to help...)
10.45pm...collect video of nights meeting and head home.....(via taxi if good night...train if not!)
11.45pm...Watch video and notes/analysis on all the runs.....price up card for next meeting to 100pc......
1.30am - sleep!
This was repeated everyday when there was a greyhound meeting (three a week) and was quite demanding.....but as I say these are the "hungry" years for all of us trying to win regularly.
Age 30-40
A testing time for all punters and a dangerous one at that where many can fall out of the game because other pressures. Most players have settled down but that brings with it a range of responsibiites, usually financial, that mean risk taking has added impact on other peoples lives and not just your own.
From my own perspective I had done well enough from betting to get the nice house, car etc and had a growing family and was very content in my early thirties. However I mentally "relaxed" into this great situation and eased off on the most important thing of all, putting the research and effort into maintaining an excellent opinion on the sports one is wagering on. This complacency is important to overcome rapidly as it has a huge negative effect on profits. The initial "hunger" and desire to win at betting has been quenched but it is essential that the level of punting is matched by an equal level of research, analysis and recording of bets. "Easing off" with the hard graft is a temptation that must be avoided, even at this busy time in most punters lives.
Age 40-70
A time in life I imagine being relatively settled. The area of betting expertise is firmly established and perhaps stakes are lowered with the desire to take chances reduced. Hopefully all the failings of chasing losses have gone and every price is hunted down to get the most valuable possible. Getting bets on is often the hardest problem with all account options used up with all the online layers and perhaps the middle aged punter has become solely reliant on the betting exchanges after his successes in the past.
Age 70-???
Betting is now a recreational pursuit as life slows down a bit! (I imagine.)
You can follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenh61
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The Agent - Welcome to the transfer window
By Andrew posted on 12-Jan-12 17:16.
What does the transfer window mean for a player agent? On the blog today we bring you the first part in our new ongoing series - The Agent. Over the coming weeks we will follow the fortunes of a prominent Scandinavian player agent as he proceeds through the current transfer window.
And we want you to be involved. If you have ever been curious about what the life of a player agent is like and what takes place during the mid-season transfer window, send us an email (andrew@bettingexpert.com) or Tweet us (@bettingexpert) and The Agent will tell us.
72 million pounds – that's a whole lot of money. It’s fair to assume that it's more than a decent yearly salary for every man walking this planet. In fact it's fair to assume it's more money than most of us will ever see in our lifetime. Nevertheless, it is the exact amount that was paid to player agents from the 20 Premier League clubs in England last season. In the coming months, I will give you all a rare view into this world, a world that is often associated with greed, mafia methods, double standards and immorality – yes – welcome to the world behind the curtain, welcome to the world The Agent.
Let me briefly introduce myself. I am a Scandinavian based player agent, and I am the co-owner of an agency that represents around 40 top players in Scandinavia, all of them playing at various clubs in a variety of different countries and leagues. I have never played any professional football myself, just always been a fan. Today I feel like a very privileged fan. Over the following months I will be giving you my view on different issues concerning the beautiful game of football, of course with a focus on what the beautiful game is like from the perspective of a player agent. Since we find ourselves in the middle of the January transfer-window, it's a great opportunity to discuss this very topic. But in the following months, I will also be giving you inside information on the life of an agent, how to become an agent and many subjects we all have an opinion on. Then at the beginning of February I will deliver a review on this current transfer window. I'm really looking forward to contributing my experiences to the BettingExpert Blog and am excited to enage with you, the readers as we navigate our way through the current transfer period and beyond.
The Transfer-Window and the agent
It’s Monday morning, just a day after the new year 2012 became a reality. I can still feel the limp grip of the hangover I inflicted on myself as I celebrated the coming of the new year. The alarm-clock says 07.30. The transfer-window is now wide open. In other words, despite the persevering hangover, I need to start working, I am already one day behind!
Luckily this is not my first transfer-window, actually it's my 15th as a “professional”. This experience is invaluable and I am very prepared for the frantic weeks ahead. Now that I have been through 15 transfer-windows, I can honestly say that this feels a little like playing football-manager on the computer. The main difference of course, is that you deal with real people, and you aren’t able to save the game and continue when you like. Or hit the reset button for that matter.
The Transfer-Window and the club
Back to the clock, it's now 08.00 and I am ready to get things moving. The blackberry has a full battery, synchronized with the calendar. I have my notes and task list in front of me and the destiny of 6 players and 6 clubs are in my hands. I have 30 days to make each of them happy.
From the club’s point of view it’s pretty standard what they are in the market for. The clubs fighting against relegation look for experienced players who can help them in this battle. Typically they want central players who are ready to take some responsibility, which will give the whole squad a little lift.
The clubs positioned in the middle of the league are only in the market for small adjustments, typically they will plan towards the next season and see if it’s possible to bring a couple of young prospects into the team for development. If they have players whose contracts expire in the summer, they might want to bring in their replacements immediately, to be sure that they have 6 months to adapt. Especially with players who come from a different culture.
The clubs fighting for trophies and European spots are the clubs that are ready to open their wallets, and hire a guy like me to find the player that can bring them a gold medal, or one of the very attractive league positions that will deliver them entry to either the Champions League or Europa. In the smaller countries these positions are a key for long term success, as it secures them a proportional very high income. Typically it’s a very strong centreback with leadership abilities, or the classical box-striker, who’s good for 10-15 goals the next 15-20 matches.
After 8-10 matches of the season, you often get the impression of which type of players you want to bring to a club in January. One of my very good contacts outside of Scandinavia, told me they were desperate for a goalscoring target-man, whose qualities should be in the penalty area. In our world, we call it a number 9. I have dealt with this club a couple of times before, so I already know about their financial situation. They are able to pay a decent salary and a transfer-fee if necessary. During the season I had proposed three number 9’s to them, however the club regarded none of them as possessing the quality they were looking for. As I am still engaged with the club in solving this issue, I have determined that this is one of my top priorities in this transfer-window, and it is certainly something I hope to solve. I need the commission to pay my bills, but most of all, I don’t want to ruin this good relationship between myself and the club.
The Transfer-window and the player
Obviously, this is just one issue of many for me. I am also under pressure from one of my most important clients, who also happens to be one of my best friends. Actually this guy helped me into this business, and we have stuck together ever since. He is a fantastic player with a very good resume. Unfortunately however, he went down with an injury at the beginning of the season. His contract expires in the summer, and I wouldn’t want anything more, than to give him an improved contract with a new club as a late Christmas present.
Just before Christmas, his current club gave us permission to talk to other clubs. They were not interested in extending his contract. I contacted many clubs who were looking to strengthen their squad in his position. One club was especially positive about him. My client and best friend was ecstatic about this opportunity and was really looking forward to meeting the manager and negotiating terms. Unfortunately they called us the day before Christmas, telling us they wanted to go with another player. My friend was obviously very frustrated, and as his manager, I can feel he sees myself as partly responsible for this disappointment. When you become too attached to your players as an agent, this is sometimes the consequence. As his friend, agent and adviser I need to take a certain responsibility and stay positive on his behalf. Unfortunately his situation is a difficult one due to his injury, combined with today's market. I really hope to find a club in my network that will sign him, otherwise the outlook for him could be grim. Perhaps for our friendship too.
Exciting days ahead
As you can see I have some very exciting weeks ahead of me, but likewise some very challenging ones. I look forward to sharing more of my experiences on the BettingExpert Blog as the transfer-window proceeds and receiving your questions. It's certainly an intriguing and demanding time of year.
Do you have a question for The Agent? Get involved and email us (andrew@bettingexpert.com) or contact Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert
Follow The Agent on Twitter : @_The_Agent_
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