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10 Betting Facts for Super Bowl 46
By Andrew posted on 01-Feb-12 21:16.
Twitter: @AndrewBexpert
Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com
Who should you bet on for Super Bowl 46? What are some of the historical Super Bowl betting trends? When will the teams score first? All these questions will attempt to be answered as Andrew brings you 10 (or more) Betting Facts for Super Bowl 46.
Facts - Recent form
The Giants have crashed their way through their last 5 games. They have covered the line in each of them, 3 of which they were underdogs. And they haven't just covered, they've been mocking the betting line, covering the line by a combined 81 points across the 5 games.
Over the last 20 seasons, there have been 6 instances of an underdog coming into the Super Bowl having covered the line in a streak of at least their previous 4 games. The record of those underdogs against the line in the Super Bowl was 4-1-1.
Looking at their last 2 games, teams that have won as underdogs in 2 consecutive playoff games to reach the Super Bowl are 4-0 against the line on the big day.
But what does recent form mean for New England? Well since Tom Brady's rookie season, the Patriots are 40-28-1 against the line following a game in which they failed to cover the line. In other words, Brady rarely has two bad games in a row. In other other words, the Pats rebound.
Facts - Toss of the Coin
A coin-toss fact for anyone with a fetish for betting on events that last less than a few seconds - The team representing the NFC has won the coin-toss the last 14 seasons. Surely that can't continue right? I mean, come on.
Oh and in case you needed any more persuading - The last AFC team to win the coin-toss? Yes, you guessed it - The Patriots - way back in Super Bowl 31 against Green Bay.
The following coin-toss stat comes with thanks from the National Football Post and it's a pretty good one. Since Tom Brady's season ending ACL injury in 2008, the Patriots have played 65 games. In 28 of those games they won the coin-toss and on each occasion they chose to kick-off.
Which is why the Giants are around odds of 1.50 to receive the ball first on Sunday.
Facts - Favourites, Dogs & Overs & Unders
So here's some breakdowns of each of the 4 combinations Super Bowls have played out with regards to favourites, underdogs & Over/Under results :
Favourites cover with the game going Over - 14 times.
Underdogs cover with the game going Over - 8 times.
Favourites cover with the game going Under - 10 times.
Underdogs cover with the game going Under - 10 times.
Yes, there's been 45 Super Bowls and those numbers only add up to 42. Well, Super Bowl 1 didn't have an Over/Under and there have been 2 Super Bowls where the line result was a push. So there you go, the most common combination has been the favourite covering coupled with the Over.
But here's the real tasty stat - in the last 29 Super Bowls, the combination of favourite coupled with the Under has occurred just 3 times. That's just a strike rate of just over 10%. But however, it occurred recently, twice, in back to back seasons, Super Bowl 40 and Super Bowl 41.
Facts - When will they score?
Ok, so now something for in-play punters - When can we expect the teams to score? I've broken down both teams in terms of points scored and conceded for each qtr of each game this season. Here's what is interesting.
- The Patriots best qtr for scoring was the 2nd, while the 1st qtr was their worst.
- The Giants best qtr for scoring was the 4th, while the 3rd qtr was their worst.
- In terms of defense, both teams shared the 3rd qtr as their best for limiting the opposition.
- Similarly, both teams shared the 4th qtr as their worst for limiting opposition scoring.
So what does this mean? Well it might be that we can expect not much action straight after halftime with both the Pats and Giants defenses being at their best and the Giants offense being at it's worst.
But it might heat up in the 4th with both defenses giving up points and the Giants having their best offensive production in the final qtr.
When will the 1st score of the game be?
A mildly scientific method I applied came to the conclusion that the 1st score will occur with 9.14 remaining in the 1st qtr. How did I come up with that? Don't worry. Some methods are best left unknown.
Facts - Chances of a Blowout
When we take a look at the history of Super Bowls where the line has been between 2.5 and 4 points, we see something striking.
In Super Bowl history their have been 13 such games. That's approximately 29% of all Super Bowls played. In those 13 games, 10 have ended with a margin of at least 10 points. And in 5 of those 10, it was the underdog that ended up winning by the double digit margin.
To go a step further, 7 of those 13 games ended with a winning margin of at least 17 points.
Also in the last 15 Patriots games where they were favoured with the line between 2.5 and 4, the winning margin for either team was at least 10pts in 9 of those 15 games, while for the Giants when underdogs in the same range, the winning margin for either team has been at least 10pts in 8 of their last 15 such matches.
Facts - Considering 2011 Win/Loss records
New England finished the regular season with a 13-3 record, collecting 4 more wins than the Giants who finished 2011 with a modest record of 9-7. Should the Giants win on Sunday they will be the 1st team to win a Super Bowl with a mere 9-7 regular season record.
However, the Patriots combined opponent strength of schedule was a winning pct of just 47.3%, while the Giants had the 2nd toughest strength of schedule in the league, a combined winning pct of 55.9%.
Further, when we consider playoff rankings of teams in previous Super Bowls, the results have been interesting. Over the last 15 Super Bowls, the lower ranked team is 12-1-2 against the line. If we consider the last 10 seasons, the lower ranked teams are 8-1 against the line, with the New Orleans v Indianapolis game being the only 1st seed Super Bowl meeting in the last 10 seasons.
Facts - In-Season pay back
The Patriots hosted the Giants back in Week 9 of this season where the Giants prevailed in a 24-20 thriller. But that shouldn't worry anybody prepared to bet on New England.
Why?
Because since 2000 when Bill Belichick became coach, when the Patriots have lost to an opponent then played them again later within the same season, they have gone 13-3 against the line in the re-match. An impressive 81% win rate. Yes, Belichick is the master of adjustments and the Patriots have often caught Vegas lines napping when coming up against teams that got the better of them earlier in the season during the Belichick era.
Facts - Going against quality opposition
New England played just 3 teams that ended the season with a win/loss record above 50% - Pittsburgh, the Giants and the Ravens in the AFC Championship game. In all 3 games the Patriots failed to cover the line. And they failed large, with a combined line margin of -28 over the 3 games.
Meanwhile, the Giants survived a savage schedule that included New Orleans, New England, NY Jets, Atlanta, Dallas twice, San Francisco twice and Green Bay twice. Hell. Oh and they managed to go 8-2 against the line in those 10 games. No small effort.
Facts - Big Overs
The Over/Under line for the game began at 55pts. That tied for the 2nd biggest O/U line in Super Bowl history. The game it tied with? The last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl back in 2007/2008. Then the teams combined for just 31 points.
The line has now settled at around 53/54pts. Since 1994 there have been 7 Super Bowl O/U lines above 50 points. In 5 of those the game went Under.
And both teams are coming into this game with very contrasting O/U trends - the Giants have gone Under in 5 of their last 6 games while the Patriots have gone Over in 7 of their last 8 games. Something's got to give.
Oh and for people thinking of betting the 1st qtr Over/Under - The 1st qtr has gone Under in 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls. The 1st qtr O/U on Sunday is 10.5pts.
Facts - First to 23?
Obviously the key to winning and to covering the line is to score points. "Yeah, thanks Einstein."
But here's an interesting stat (and most likely a useless one) - And it revolves around the number 23.
When a team scored at least 23 points in the Super Bowl, they are 31-9-2 against the line. When they score less than 23 points, they are 12-34-2.
And in Super Bowls where at least one team scored 23 points, the game has gone Over 21-13.
You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert
Listen to Andrew talk Super Bowl betting on Matt Finnigan's Podcast
And follow Matt on Twitter : @MattFinnigan
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An Infographic - The History of Super Bowl Betting
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The History of Super Bowl Betting
By Andrew posted on 30-Jan-12 17:56.
Twitter: @AndrewBexpert
Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com
What were the bettling lines for every Super Bowl ever played? What were the Over/Under lines? Today on the blog we answer both of these questions as we present to you - The History of Super Bowl Betting.
With less than a week to go until the New England Patriots and New York Giants square off in Super Bowl 46, it's a perfect time to take a look back at previous Super Bowl results - And most importantly, historical betting lines, both head to head and over/under.
The chart below displays all lines, both head to head & over/under, plus fulltime results from the 1st Super Bowl almost 50 years ago, all the way to last year's matchup between Green Bay and Pittsburgh. The lines in green are lines that were covered by the favoured team, while lines in red were covered by the underdogs. Similarly, over/under lines in green were covered, while over/under lines in red were not.
And so without much more to add, I give to you The History of Super Bowl Betting....chart.
Enjoy.
Feel free to embed this infographic by copying the following code:
You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert
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5 Pointers for the 2012 Cheltenham Festival
By Andrew posted on 27-Jan-12 16:41.
Twitter: @Stephenh61
Email : stephen at bettingexpert.com
Where is the early value at this years Cheltenham Fesitval? With the festival just a month away, in our new regular racing editorial, BettingExpert's racing analyst Stephen shares his thoughts and tells us which horses are deserving of your investment at Cheltenham this year.
With March now a month away, NH racing fans begin to feel that eager sense of anticipation as the highlight of the entire season gets ever closer. With running plans not cast in stone for many of the protagonists it is essential to bet with a layer offering the valuable "non runner no bet" stipulation.
We have selected five wagers to add to your ante-post portfolio that can provide a vital edge when the festival begins. This will hopefully put BettingExpert followers in a strong position on the day.
1- BIG BUCKS
8-13 WILLIAM HILLS - World Hurdle ***** WIN
The champ has continued in unstoppable fashion this season, extending his winning run to 14. Any slight doubts about his going right handed swept away last time as he was always travelling smoothly for most of the way, just shaken up briefly as the leader pressed on 3 out, soon covering that move and powering away in the straight, not needing to be anywhere near his best but impressive in the manner of victory and remaining very hard to oppose so far as another World Hurdle bid is concerned. This is a short price but 8-13 may seem very fair on the day and it is hard to see any of the present geneartion getting him off the bridle.
2-GRUMETI
10-1 BETFRED TOTE - Triumph hurdle ** EACH-WAY
He was useful on the flat and was unfortunate not to follow up his Taunton win last time at Newbury. He remains a serious contender for the Triumph Hurdle, travelling strongly all the way and 8 lengths up and cruising when he fell 2 out, looking none the worse afterwards. He appeals as by far the best English juvenile seen out and with recent history suggesting the Irish challenge may come up short, he is well worth an each-way investment at this stage.
3-LONG RUN
5-2 General price - Gold Cup **** WIN
Beaten twice this season by his old foe but still appeals as the one to beat, and this course plays to his stamina strengths. Last time he confirmed the positive impression created at Haydock and lost nothing in defeat against one of the outstanding chasers, beaten fair and square but still with every chance of gaining a second win in the Gold Cup, his form and that of the winner head and shoulders above that of any of their likely rivals at the moment, tactics plus less fluent (but not poor) jumping making a difference to this outcome, closing strongly come the end after Kauto Star had essentially sealed the race when pressing on after the twelfth, the longer trip at Cheltenham more in his favour than the winner's.
4-AL FEROF
13-2 Coral - Arkle *** WIN
Finished a very creditable third behind Somersby in the VC Chase at Ascot recently and will be suited by this stiffer course if renewing rivalry. He appeals as sure to be shorter on the day if choosing this option and is a young, unexposed chaser firmly on the upgrade. He didn't look himself beforehand last time, not taking the eye and appearing as if he'd be sharper with the run behind him, and he was a little flat at various stages of the race, nevertheless running right up to form against much more experienced chasers-he remains a very strong contender for the Arkle at Cheltenham, for which he's likely to be trained to the minute; he responded well when pushed along and had every chance in the straight, going less well than the other pair and having to give best before the last.
5-CINDERS AND ASHES
12-1 General price - Supreme Novice Hurdle ** WIN
Won readily in the deep ground last time out but trainer Donald McCain reported he would do far better on a decent surface and appeals as the value choice in a race he has been targeted at all season. He continues to make an excellent impression and looks firmly on target for the Supreme after another easy win, not actually having to improve to land this Grade 2 contest with only 2 in opposition but once more most impressive in landing the odds, jumping and travelling most fluently again and firmly in control when flattening the last, just kept up to his work.
Best Wishes with all your festival wagers and please watch out daily for the Hot Horses that provide exclusive information about what is being supported by the warmest accounts with the major firms.
You can follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenh61
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Who wins a NBA game when it goes into overtime?
By Andrew posted on 24-Jan-12 12:28.
Twitter: @AndrewBexpert
Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com
Which team is more likely to win when a NBA game goes into overtime? The home team? The favourites? The underdogs? As the NBA season is in full swing, today on the blog Andrew takes a look at the question.
Over the last 10 NBA seasons, roughly 6% of games have extended to overtime. Today on the blog I take a look at what happens when a NBA game does head into the extra period. Who is more likely to win? Do home clubs excel in overtime? Do underdogs fall away when going into extended minutes? I will try to answer each of these questions and more.
Home vs Away
Firstly let's do a simple home v away breakdown. Over the last 10 NBA seasons, home clubs won just under 52% of all overtime games. When the game went into a single overtime period, home clubs were consistent, winning just under 52% of games.
When the game went into double overtime, road clubs won 51% of the time, although the sample size was just 100 games played.
Lastly, though an even smaller sample size, home clubs were far superior when a game went into triple overtime, winning just under 71% of the time.
Home favourites vs Away favourites
But let's get into some betting analysis. The chart below shows the overtime winning percentages for both home favourites and away favourites over the last 10 NBA seasons.
As we can see, when the home club starts the game as favourites, they win in overtime just over 56% of the time. This was over a sample size in excess of 500 games.
You might have thought that home underdogs would do better, but over the last 10 NBA seasons, away favourites have beaten home dogs in overtime just over 57% of the time, across a sample size of over 200 games.
Favourites big & small
Ok, now let's dig a little bit deeper. The chart below shows the overtime winning percentages of both home favourites and away favourites grouped by rank of favouritism.
We can see that when home clubs started the game as a favourite of at least 9 points, when the game went to overtime, they won just over 72% of the time. When home clubs started favourites between 6 and 8.5 points, they won in overtime just over 61% of the time.
The most interesting observation is that when the game's starting betting line was between home clubs as favourites of at most 5.5 points all the way down to the away club being favourites of at most 2.5 points, the match was pretty much a 50-50 proposition when heading into extra time. In these situations, the home clubs won in overtime just over 49% of the time the last 10 NBA seasons. And importantly, these games consituted roughly 50% of all overtime games played over that span.
Finally, when away clubs started favourites of at least 3 points up to favourites of 6 points, they won in overtime just under 57% of the time, while when away clubs were favourites of at least 6.5 points, they won in overtime over 77% of the time.
So what did we learn?
Well for one thing we learned that while home favourites of 6 points or more and away favourites of 3 points or more win at a reasonably expected rate, there is a sweet spot inbetween where overtime games are a bit of a coin toss.
We also can see that away favourites tend to do a little bit better than home favourites. For example, home club favourites of at least 6.5 points won in overtime just under 66% of the time, while away favourites of the same kind won in overtime over 77% of the time.
You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert
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10 Betting Facts for the NFL Conference Championships
By Andrew posted on 17-Jan-12 15:27.
Twitter: @AndrewBexpert
Email : andrew at bettingexpert.com
It's NFL Conference Championship weekend as in the NFC title game the Giants visit San Francisco and in the AFC the Ravens visit New England. On the blog today Andrew delivers 10 facts that could help you find the value line this weekend.
Fact 1
The Giants head to San Francisco off their stunning win at Green Bay in the Divisional Round. However, teams playing away in the Championship Game coming off an underdog road win in the Divisional Round are 11-17 against the line since 1981.
Fact 2
New England made easy work of Denver in the Divisional Round, winning by a comfortable 35 points at home easily covering the line of 13.5 points. While teams playing at home in the Championship Game coming off a home game in which they covered the line are 25-19 against the line since 1981, but 2-4 against the line coming off a win of more than 30pts in the Divisional Round.
Fact 3
San Francisco pulled off the home upset win against the Saints in the Divisional Round. Teams playing at home coming off an underdog win are 4-0 against the line in the Championship Game since 1981.
Fact 4
The Giants have covered the line in their last 4 games. Clubs playing on winning streak against the line of 4 are 2-9 against the line in the Championship Game since 1981 and 1-7 against the line when playing in a Championship Game on the road.
Fact 5
A great deal of the Giants success against Green Bay was due to winning the turnover battle. Teams playing away in a Conference Championship game coming off a Divisional playoff in which they had 3 less turnovers than their opponents are 8-3 against the line in Championship Game since 1981, but 1-5 against the line when they won the turnover battle by 4 or more turnovers.
Fact 6
New England held the Broncos to just 10 points in their home Divisional win last weekend. Teams playing at home in a Championship game that held their opponents to 10pts or fewer in the Divisional Round are 15-9 against the line since 1981 and 26-17 against the line both home or away.
Fact 7
The 49ers and the Saints was a classic shootout with both clubs combining for almost 900 total yards. Teams that played in a Divisional playoff where both teams combined for over 750 yards offence, are 8-19 against the line in the Championship Game since 1981.
Fact 8
Despite winning the game, the 49ers were out-gained against New Orleans by 65 yards. Teams that were out-gained by their Divisional opponents by 50 yards or more are 0-5 against the line in the Championship Game at home since 1981 and 3-10 against the line either home or away.
Fact 9
New England punished the Broncos on the scoreboard and in the boxscore, out-gaining Denver by 257 yards in total offence. Teams that out-gained their Divisional opponents by 200 yards or more are 0-6 against the line in the Championship Game at home since 1981 and 1-8 against the line either home or away.
Fact 10
The 49ers combined with the Saints for 78 total points, while the Giants combined with the Packers for 57. When both clubs in a Championship game went Over the Total line in their Divisional playoffs, the Championship game has gone Over 8-3 since 1981.
You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert
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