I have my eyes focused on the Tour de France as intensely as a paparazzo on royal cars. Each year I tell myself I should get out and enjoy the sun instead of getting irritated that it overexposes half of my 40 inch plasma. This year is no exception.

Before the tour began this year I started wondering about the history of the race. I was especially puzzled about the performance of the riders. As you can see in the graph since 1928 the numbers of stages has been set around 20-23 with an average distance about 4300 km.

But why has the speed increased continually though out the history of the race?

Going faster and faster is probably not a special feature in pro cycling considering that all most every other type of sport develops in that direction. However, I found it interesting to look into what reasons was most likely to affect the speed.

Source: http://bikeraceinfo.com/tdf/tdfstats.html

Training – Probably Not

One possibility is that training has become more and more efficient. It sounds plausible that training today is a totally different matter than cruising around the roads of 19th century Europe without the luxury of mechanics to fix your bike and soigneurs to do all the not so glamour’s suff as USA TODAY notes.

When German Sprinter Eric Zabel was on top of his carrier he would go for five long training passes at about 200-260 km and in a week plus two short ones at about 100km. That equals just about 40.000 km per year.  However, the amount of training has not increased significantly during the last 20-30 years.

A former pro rider told me that his training diaries from around 1990 do not look all that different from today’s pros. The simple explanation being that bike racing was one of the earliest sports to have a professional environment. Thus biking pros have a tradition of hard training from way back in history.

Salary – Certainly Not

Another tradition is that pro riders pay level is just above professional bowlers. As a newbie on the Pro Tour your minimum income is merely $38,000. Not many debutants in top league football would consider signing a contract that non-lucrative. Especially the number of hours on the road taken into consideration.

As noted by the Wall Street Journal quoting Jonathan Vaughters, the director of the American team Garmin-Chipotle, states the somewhat obvious – being a pro rider “is not the best financial decision you can make with your life”.

Doping – Hard to Say

The question about doping has been an invasive species to bike racing like Vuvuzelas to football. The harm in both cases is not easy to calculate. However, in the case of EPO as one of the main drugs in the spotlight there have been numerous tests that document its effect on performance.

Running 10 km on an EPO cure will increase endurance about 8% roughly cutting 1 minute of the total time.  In terms of biking a British experiment concluded that “EPO use improved time to exhaustion by an enormous 54% within 4 weeks”. Facing 4300 kms on the roads of France is 54% increased endurance the kind of science that appeals in the ears of bike riders.

Equipment – Most Probably

In an article from 2009 the magazine ProCycling tried to compare a vintage 1983 Pinarello bike to a modern 2009 Laperre. Maybe not totally surprising the Pinarello wasn’t rated too well when it came to comfort and handling. In fact it did not match up with its modern relative on most parameters.

The weight difference was 2.5 kg., the old Pinarello was difficult to handle and didn’t feel safe on descents. It terms of speed the conclusion was that the difference in equipment would count for an increase in speed in about “3-5 kph”.

The ability to go faster on mountain stages is something that cannot be disregarded as a major improvement. “Having 22 gears going up and down hill instead of 10 – or even less – has a tremendous effect on overall speed in a bike races”, my former pro riding friend told me. Be sure to check out this little experiment from Alpe d’Huez for a more in-depth look at what weight means for getting faster up the hills.

Around 1990 gears and hand brakes were integrated and the technology keeps improving the rider’s equipment. Just have a look at some of the latest innovative features of the gear shifting systems.

The price on favorites and over x goals often drop before kickoff. Here's why

I have been a serious punter for about five years. Today I have decided to reveal a small secret (Well I suppose it’s a secret…) in this blog post. I’ll start with a small example of a typical Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday evening.

I have decided that I will reveal a small secret…

I guess most of you work during the day just like me. While at work I typically check the prices and handicap lines for the upcoming Premiership match Monday evening. If it’s Tuesday or Wednesday it will be the upcoming Champions League match that I will be researching. Especially on the days when there is just one big match we all know the thrilling feeling of anticipation for coming home to watch the game – and of course place some money on the game… Well let’s stop here!

We all know that Man U home against Portsmouth is a sure win, right?

The rational man was just about to leave the building and turn into the extremely common and just as dangerous homo gamblingus… You know the guy, the one who must place money on a game, since it is otherwise too boring to watch a big favorite slaughter an innocent little (under)dog. We all know that Man U home against Portsmouth is a sure win, right? The question is only how big will they win and thus homo gamblingus will place a bet on either Manchester United -1.5 or go with over 2.75 goals.

Rational Man Seeks Value

Let’s turn away from homo gamblingus and back to the rational man trying to get a return on his betting investment. The reason why we see betting value is often the masses of homo gamblingus, who bet small amounts. But when aggregated, these small amounts will move the market with the result that the favorite is made too big a favorite and the expected number of goals is too high.

Few markets in economics are as inefficient as the football markets, since it’s subject to people whose betting pattern is dominated by lack of insights and rational calculation.

It makes sense that people tend to bet on favorites and many goals. It is the kind of football we enjoy watching and thus hope to see. You can take advantage of this by being the fish swimming against the current. Few markets in economics are as inefficient as the football markets, since it’s subject to people whose betting pattern is dominated by lack of insights and rational calculation. In the Graph below is shown the price development for tonight’s game Hull-Aston Villa. I see this as a very typical price development for a favorite in a game that is shown on television.

Price development on Betfair for Hull – Aston Villa the 21st of April 2010.

However from this we can’t deduct that the dog always is the valuebet. In the case above, Aston Villa might be an even stronger favorite than the price reflects. Let’s say Aston Villa is a 57 % favorite, with the current price of 2.06, we have around 17% value (note this not my real estimate and do check out our new value calculator tool!). You might ask then what use it has to us, knowing that prices on favorites tend to drop over time. It’s quite simple: The chance of finding value will undoubtedly be bigger going with the dog just before kickoff compared to all other betting options.

I’m looking so much forward to watch the game! Let’s hope for 0-0…

I will argue that exactly the same applies to over/under bets. When watching a game in television the last thing you want is the game to end without goals. Homo gamblingus will of course find the over bets more appealing as he subconsciously is hoping for many goals in the match.

Homo gamblingus will of course find the over bets more appealing as he subconsciously is hoping for many goals in the match.

In social psychology this phenomenon is called cognitive dissonance: dealing with two contradictory ideas will lead you to adapt one of them to your beliefs, which I try to illustrate in the title of this paragraph. Knowing this it doesn’t take much knowledge to figure out that everything else being equal the chances of finding value is bigger going with the under than the over bet. Let’s look at the graph for tonight’s game.

Price development for Hull – Aston Villa over 2.5 goals the 21st of April 2010

There haven’t been placed many bets yet, but still the weak tendency this graph shows is that price is falling on the over bet. Again I’m not arguing that the under bet tonight is sure value, but rational man is likely to find value more often on the under bet than the over bet.

I have been following this strategy for several years and so far my ROI has been positive. I apply the same strategy in running and my absolute favorite bet is to back a dog leading with one goal against a big favorite in a televised match with 10 minutes left. You’ll find amazing value in the Betfair betting exchange.

Good luck to all rational punters out there!

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Have your say. Do you agree with Jesper in his analysis? and have you any experience with such a strategy yourself? Any comments let us know!

Football fans love goals. Goals are what keep us coming back for more.

However, as a bettor you have to be able to push the goal loving feelings out of your mind before placing a bet. First, you need to clear your head of all the very natural emotions which are attached to goals. Secondly, you should look at how statistics can infuse more value to your bets.

There is always a greater urge to back higher numbers of goals in a game – this is simply human nature

There is always a greater urge to back higher numbers of goals in a game, especially matches you watch without any particular team bias, this is simply human nature. But when should you follow that goal loving instinct? And when should a more conservative approach takeover your thinking?

So, how many goals are scored in the Premiership?

We were curious to learn about this, so we went to Premierleague.com and found some stats. We used these data to analyse the number of goals per game over the course of this English Premier League season to see if we can establish a common trend and try to and apply rhyme and reason to our findings.

For the last three Premier League seasons the average number of goals has been 2.6, 2.6 and 2.5.

Although world class strikers often are bought by the Premiership clubs, the number of goals in the Premier League is remarkably stable: for the last three Premier League seasons the average number of goals has been 2.6, 2.6 and 2.5.

Strikers Are Better in the Fall

In the first graph you can see the average number of goals scored per game. After a quiet opening of the season, Rooney, Drogba, Torres and the other players hit around the 3.0 goals per game for a sustained period of time.

Given that this is a league which traditionally averages around the 2.5 mark once the dust has settled on a season it is fair to say that there was a goal frenzied start to this 2009/2010 season, but why?

Many goals in the beginning of the season, eh – but why?

One of the most logical reasons for this is the absence of a major international tournament in the preceding summer. This means that the majority of players have entered the season in a rejuvenated and robust physical condition and have been able to express their skills and talents to the maximum of their ability.

Are Strikers More Important Than Defenders?

However, the same theory can be applied to defenders and goalkeepers who have also enjoyed a summer of rest. Why then does it not transpire that there are fewer goals? Is this a clear sign that attackers are the most important factor in a game of football? Perhaps an obvious justification, if any was needed, as to why goal scorers and creative players command the bigger transfer fees.

Numbers Talk: Goals Decrease Throughout The Season

In the second graph we have discounted the weeks in which small and large numbers of games have been played. This way we can keep the sample size of a similar amount throughout the season and thus obtain a more accurate assessment of the goal scoring trend.

Aside from one or two peaks and troughs we can now see clearly that there is a decreasing average number of goals per game as the season progresses. The red line of best fit shows it even more clearly.

This can be partly explained by the fact that there was an unusually high average at the beginning of the season. And as the season progresses the fatigue factor also becomes noticeable. Is it then arguable that defenders are either fitter or perhaps cleverer than their attacking minded opponents?

Looking at the graph defenders do seem to be getting on top of things later in the season. Perhaps this is because they are learning how to play against and nullify the attackers who had such advantage at the beginning of the season.

Our Advice: Bet On Under 2.5 Goals In The End Of The Season

In order to get the truest of graphs and thus the most useful of information we need to make one more adjustment to our data set. From week to week a score line which is entirely out of the ordinary can occur. A freak result if you like.

Take Tottenham’s 9-1 drubbing of Wigan for example. These sorts of results do not help us analyse a trend, they are an anomaly in the statistical analyses. The third graph disregards these abnormalities by discounting both the highest and lowest scoring games of each week.

Throughout the Premier League season there is a tipping point where it makes more sense to bet under 2.5 goals than over.

Now we have our clearest and most accurate indication of the number of goals per game decreasing throughout the season. This is now a dataset we can use to help us make decisions in our day to day betting.

When it comes to goal betting markets the Over/Under 2.5 is considered the most popular. Almost every bookmaker will offer this bet as part of their betting package to punters. It is also the betting market which is most applicable to the graphs we have produced here.

Bets And Odds

Other mitigating factors should also be considered. The odds at which you back these selections is certainly a hugely important component that should be considered before placing your bet. However, despite this not being a fool proof system (no such thing exists) it is clear that we should be looking to back the over 2.5 goals selection toward the beginning of a season and gradually switching to the under 2.5 goals toward the conclusion.

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David Beckham is one of the most popular figures in the sports world. He has dominated the world of football with a celebrity status in and outside his domain. This is not just because of his unsurpassing football talent but also he has the looks that encapsulate stardom outside his sports. His fame extends beyond football.

The dream

His glittering career started at a very young age.  A member of the famous Manchester United youth team, he joined the first-team in 1995. Shot to household name when he scored from the halfway line against Wimbledon at Selhurst Park. Like any other football player, it is one’s dream to play in the national team and represent the country in the World Cup. Beckham had it all, he did not only play for the England team but became the captain at the 1998, 2002 and 2006 and with 115 appearances in the World Cup, he is the most capped outfield player. It will be his 4^th appearances in South Africa

England under the management of Fabio Capello has proven themselves as strong candidate for the World Cup 2010 and has been tipped off to have the prowess to take bring home the trophy. All England players are vying to be part of this success and David is not an exception. This is one of his dreams if not his ultimate one but this could never happen.

Torn dreams

David suffered a torn Achilles tendon on Sunday. He has travelled to Finland to be seen and operated by a Specialist. Dr. Oravo announced that the operation was a success and Beckham is on his way to recovery but this healing process will take months. According to the medical experts, it takes at least 3 months before he can start training and around 9 months before he can perform competitively and be back at the same level he was before.  The recuperating process will not be in time for the World Cup let alone play for it, this signals that he will certainly miss the tournament in SA and his WC dream appears to be over.

Not over

Missing the World Cup will be a big blow to Beckham but having said this, let’s not forget that David Beckham made his name in the history not because of his good looks but because of his determination, professionalism and hard work. Amidst the lingering strip of dark clouds that hang on the horizon, hopefully, he will be back. Maybe not for the World Cup but will be back in the football arena. This will not be the end of his career even if he is already 34 years old. He might have cried “it’s torn, it’s Torn” and his World Cup dream might be torn apart but his football dream is not yet over.

Cheltenham Festival is back this week and some of the best horses in England and Ireland will compete in this four-day event where a total of 26 races will take place. The atmosphere in the festival is something to enjoy by everyone.

The brilliant jumps and the crowds gives an intensity to the event while the ladies will have their own dedicated Ladies’ Day to display and show their best dresses and best hats in a pageantry manner. All throughout, the excitement builds up to the last day where of the most coveted title of the festival takes place, The Cheltenham Gold Cup which will be battle out by the best pedigrees of horses.

William Hill has come out with a game called “War of the Wolds”, where you can taste a bit of what is going to happen on Friday when the Cheltenham Gold Cup returns in a fury with Kauto Star and Denmen in the starting line up.

Who will you back and who will win? Why not have a go on the game that Willam Hill made. This might give you an idea where your bets might go if you are still undecided or if you have already made up your mind, you can try virtually how it is to be the jockey.

For the meantime, If you fancy a flutter, look at our tipsters’ panel for some good advice on the day and read the Cheltenham preview “Racing: Kauto Star & Denman reignite at Cheltenham”

To play the War of the Wolds game – click here

ENJOY!!!! also live Cheltenham results on this coming Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and of course FRIDAY!!!!

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Lille will be hosting Liverpool in their UEFA Europa League round of 16 opener in France for the 1^st leg. It will certainly be one of the tightest games in the last 16. Liverpool are one of the surviving teams that made it to the last 16 via. the champions League while Lille have got to this stage through their own merits. Both teams will be looking for a safe passage to the next round.

The French team are looking forward to challenge themselves after they eases past the Danish champion, FC Copenhagen, 6-2 on aggregate over the two legs of the last 32 in the Europa League. Lille hardly broke a sweat and looked convincing in the last round.  On Thursday, they might have to put up their guard as they host the famous red shirts five times European Cup winners from Merseyside on Thursday. Lille managed to draw 1-1 away against Saint-Etienne and that will keep them 5th in the Ligue 1. The French side will hope that Ben Arfa will come well on Thursday as he does well in the European scenes.

FC Liverpool will cross the channel to meet Lille for a place in the semifinals in the Europa League. The Reds are no strangers in the latter stages of European competitions and last time they got this far in this competition, it was back in the 2001/02 season where they were crowned winners. This is the last call for Liverpool if they want some silverware this season, they have lost pace in the premiership, losing to Wigan 1-0 on Monday, out of the of FA Cup and League Cup so the Europa League could redeem much of a lost season for Liverpool. Manager Rafa Benitez will be see to that both Gerrard and Torres will be fit for action and hopefully take a good result back to Anfield for next week’s encounter. Liverpool are slowly picking up pace as their most of their key members are fit to fight for the rest of the campaign.

Lille will meet Liverpool for the first time ever in their history and what an important one it is. Liverpool might be favorites to go through to the next round but it will be a tricky first leg encounter. Lille are a good home team and certainly many teams found it hard to break the Frenchmen down on foreign soil. Liverpool will be cautious and they do have some defensive selection problem at the back so expect a draw at least from Liverpool

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The Colour of South Africa is ready to set high as it gears up and begins its 100-day countdown for the World Cup kick off on June 11. Johannesburg pride itself as the first African nation to host the biggest and most prestigious football tournament. As it gets ready to host a one month-long festival to showcase its rich and colourful culture to the world, the host nation has launched the countdown with a bang. Cities across the nation revel in excitement and have already staged street parties to show the welcome and world in advance.

The Fear

With all the hype that surrounds the World Cup 2010 countdown, international football fans are staying away from the game due to the security and safety issues that have been highlighted more since the attack on Togo’s football team at the Africa Cup of Nations in Angola. Crime is also the major talking point as it is the biggest problem of the city and it has the highest crime rates in the world. With these, doubts linger for the host nation on their ability to stage a high-profile game. South Africa hosted Fifa’s Confederation Cup last year successfully and officials are banking on that and other past successful sporting events to prove and reassure the pessimist and the doubters of the events that all is under control and there is nothing to be worried about going to the games. “There is no doubt, no doubt,” he said. “Let’s go now, let’s have this World Cup, and then we will discuss end of July.” FIFA president Sepp Blatter insisted.

The Reality

Fifa says that 2.2 of the 2.9 million tickets have already been sold and 450,000 international visitors are expected. African football fans are unhappy of the ticket sales and dubbed it as unrealistic. Few of them have credit cards needed for online purchases, they are required proof of finance, vaccination certificates and return travelling tickets have to be met. While the cheapest tickets for them will be $80 (£54), an average African football fan could not afford it  but Fifa denies they are being priced out. With fans still recovering from the shock of global recession, the actual number of spectators could be lower.

The hope

However, with the much anticipated sporting events in football world, South Africans are increasingly optimistic, they are ready to host the World Cup and they are ready to make history. With the money poured out (3.2 billion euros) in preparation for this massive tournament, people are hoping the World Cup will bring real glory and legacy to its people.

There is no doubt that the South Africans can host a party for the countdown but can they host a massive sporting event such as World Cup tournament and probe the doubters wrong. Are you a doubter or optimist? Let us know what you think.

England will host the Egypt team on Wednesday evening for a friendly game at the Wembley Stadium this coming international midweek. This is one of the friendly games that England will be involved in before they take on the massive favourite title to South Africa for the World Cup 2010. Egypt will provide a stern opponent for England as they are the newly crowned African Nation Cup winners.

England are currently 9^th in the world under the helm of the Italian Fabio Capello and they have never looked back ever since. They are preparing for the World Cup with a few new names to the squad. Capello took on Leighton Baines and Stephen Warnock after the news of Wayne Bridge deciding to omit himself from the England team due to a inconvicence work relationship with John Terry. Ashley Cole is currently out with a broken ankle leaving new blood to take the left defensive side for England. A surprise call up for Stoke’s Ryan Shawcross has also been named after the breaking Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey leg. Upfront, England will have Carlon Cole available and Theo Walcott.

Egypt missed the World Cup by losing to Algeria in a playoff final in the African Zone. This did not deter them from winning the Africans Nations Cup back in January with a 1-0 win over Ghana in the final. They have been consistently one of the best teams in Africa and England will be lucky not to see them in the World Cup stage. Egypt are ranked 10^th in the world and will certainly give all they got against England to show what the World Cup is missing. The Egyptian will see the only Premiership player, Zaki and goalscorer Zidan available for the encounter. Mido

As this is a friendly, England tends to switch a few players and test a few along the way. A cautious draw will be surely the best option as Eygpt are a formidable oppoentn who are looking to impress in an international plan. Since the drop of John Terry of the captain armband, Rio Ferdinard is the nominated captain but he is injuried so Steven Gerrard will carry out the proceedings.

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Liverpool returns to Anfield after disappointingly collecting only a point out of last two away games in the Premiership. Their opponent, Blackburn, are looking to cause a stir when they face the mighty reds at Anfield on Sunday afternoon. This will be a contest that both teams will go all out attack in order to get their hands on the three points.

Liverpool needs to resurrect their season by claiming their stakes on the fourth and last Champions League spot available in the Premiership. Their last two domestic games were a display of strategic and tactical deployed by master tactician himself, Benitez. He saw the return of Torres and Yossi Benayoun in their European Europa League campaign. They also advanced to the last 16 winning their 2^nd leg match 3-1 and prized with an encounter with the French opposition, Lille, in two weeks time. Benitez faces defensive problem as Martin Skrtel suffered a broken metatarsal in the midweek and Sotirios Kyrgiakos is still out suspended.

Blackburn will travel to Liverpool with high hopes of getting something out this tie after their 3-0 win home against Bolton last weekend. Manager Sam Allardyce will certainly not tinker with a winning team but unfortunately he will have to replace captain Ryan Nelsen as he is sideline with a knee injury. Chris Samba will return to the starting lineup after serving his suspension against Bolton. There is a chance that Allardyce might give Yildiray Basturk a much awaited debut from the start while David Dunn, Franco Di Santo and Steven Reid all prepared to play a part in the grand scheme. Veteran Michel Salgado could once again deputize at the back for Blackburn.

The odds are stack against Sam Allardyce as he has never won a league game at Anfield in seven attempts. The best he has come up with against Liverpool was back in 2002 with a draw and the rest from there ended in defeats. Blackburn looks to have a mammoth task ahead of that as Liverpool are back into winning ways with Steven Gerrard leading the way. Torres could get a surprise start but the bench could be his best bet. Betsson are offering odds 1.35 for a home win for Liverpool.

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