2025 NFL Season Favorites
The defending Super Bowl champions, Kansas City Chiefs, again headline the contenders. With Patrick Mahomes in his prime and Travis Kelce still producing, they remain a popular pick in Super Bowl futures and AFC winner markets. In the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers bring back a stacked roster led by Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and a dominant defense. Both teams should command short odds, making them better suited for win total bets or division winner markets rather than outright Super Bowl plays.
Dark Horses
The new season offers intriguing value further down the board. The Detroit Lions impressed with their aggressive offense last year, and with Jared Goff settled and a strong offensive line, they look ready to challenge NFC heavyweights. In the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals will hope for a fully healthy Joe Burrow, while the Buffalo Bills seek to finally turn regular-season success into postseason glory. Bettors looking for long-shot value could also eye the Houston Texans, who stunned many last season under rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Their youthful core makes them a sneaky play in to win division or make playoffs markets.
Key Storylines
Quarterback narratives will dominate again. Can Mahomes deliver a third consecutive Super Bowl? Will Josh Allen finally silence critics in January? How will Aaron Rodgers fare in his return for the New York Jets? Meanwhile, several franchises enter rebuilding phases, with teams like the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders banking on young quarterbacks to develop quickly. For bettors, this creates volatility in spread markets, particularly early in the season when oddsmakers adjust to new dynamics.
Division Value Picks
- Detroit Lions (NFC North):
Balanced roster and aggressive play-calling make them favorites with betting value.
- Houston Texans (AFC South):
C.J. Stroud’s emergence makes them strong contenders in a wide-open division.
- Cleveland Browns (AFC North):
Elite defense can keep them competitive despite offensive inconsistency.
Upset Potential
- Chicago Bears:
With a rookie QB leading the rebuild, they may shock favorites at home.
- Atlanta Falcons:
Improved roster and favorable schedule could yield surprise wins.
- Seattle Seahawks:
Strong at Lumen Field, often cover spreads as underdogs.
2025 NFL Season Betting Outlook
High-powered offenses like Kansas City, Buffalo, and Miami remain excellent targets for overs in totals markets, while defensive juggernauts like San Francisco and Baltimore provide strong cases for unders. Bettors should monitor early-season lines closely, as value often lies in teams the market is slow to adjust to — think of Detroit in 2023 or Houston last year. Futures markets also reward patience. Taking teams like the Bengals or Eagles after a slow start can yield better odds than preseason lines.
Best for Overs
- Kansas City Chiefs:
Mahomes-led offense remains explosive, especially against weaker defenses.
- Miami Dolphins:
Fast-paced scheme with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle thrives in shootouts.
- Buffalo Bills:
Josh Allen’s dual-threat ability keeps totals high in most matchups.
Best for Unders / Tight Games
- San Francisco 49ers:
Elite defense and run-first approach often keep scores controlled.
- Baltimore Ravens:
Physical style and strong defensive unit push many games under the number.
- New York Jets:
Rodgers’ return adds intrigue, but defense-first identity remains intact.
The 2025 NFL season sets up as a battle between established giants and ambitious challengers. The Chiefs and 49ers remain the standard, yet teams like Detroit, Cincinnati, and Houston ensure fresh narratives. For bettors, the campaign offers diverse angles across win totals, playoff races, and week-to-week markets. With so much talent spread across the league, expect a season packed with drama, high-scoring clashes, and surprise contenders emerging when it matters most.
NFL Predictions Today
During the winter period, it will be hard for the offensive line for every team which will result in more runs instead of passes. A great tip is to find the top teams with a great passing game and focus on them. Or, your NFL predictions can focus on teams like Philadelphia, the Eagle’s defensive line is very strong which helped them reach the number one spot in their group. They will definitely play even better during rain and snowy weather.
NFL Stats
If you’re thinking of betting on the NFL, a good start is to consider a large sample size of betting stats. This can help you identify historical biases present in the market and advantages for teams in certain situations. Let’s first look at straight-up win-loss betting stats.
Straight Up Win-Loss NFL Stats
Below we can see win and loss percentages for teams in certain situations. For example, we can see that home teams win just over 57% of football games. Historically home-field advantage has been worth around 3 points, but this has been challenged recently, with many now believing the advantage to be around 2 points. We can also see an advantage for teams coming off a bye week. Teams in such situations have won just over 55% of their games since 2003.
| Situation | WIN PCT | LOSS PCT |
|---|
| Home Teams | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| Away Teams | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| Favourites | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| Underdogs | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| Home Favourites | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| Home Underdogs | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| Away Favourites | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| Away Underdogs | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| After A Bye Week | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| After A Win | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| After A Loss | 45.8% | 54.2% |
Betting Picks Against The Spread (ATS) NFL Stats
When we consider picks against the spread, we can identify a few market biases to consider when betting on NFL games. Firstly, away teams have won just over 51% of bets against the spread since 2003, likewise, underdogs have won almost 51%.
As a result, we can see that underdogs playing away games have won against the spread almost 52% of the time. While 52% is not a strike rate to profit given standard bookmaker odds of 1.90 for NFL spread betting, it is certainly a bias to keep in mind. Further, we can see that teams coming off a bye have covered the spread in just over 52% of games.
| Situation | ATS WIN PCT | ATS LOSS PCT |
|---|
| Home Teams | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| Away Teams | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Favourites | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Underdogs | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| Home Favourites | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Home Underdogs | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Away Favourites | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Away Underdogs | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| After A Bye Week | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| After A Win | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| After A Loss | 50.5% | 49.5% |
Over/Under NFL Stats
When we look at points totals, we can see a distinct bias in games featuring teams from the same division, with those games finishing under the points total line just over 53% of the time since 2003. This can be explained by the fact that divisional teams play each other twice each season and are therefore defensively better prepared than when playing teams out of division.
In non-division games and non-conference games, where teams play each other rarely, these games have finished with over the points total line, almost 52% of the team—another bias to keep in mind when betting on NFL points totals.
| Situation | OVER WIN PCT | UNDER WIN PCT |
|---|
| Conference Games | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Division Games | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| Playoff Games | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Non-Conference Games | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Non-Division Games | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Regular Season Games | 49.7% | 50.3% |
Past Super Bowl Winners and Betting Odds Overview
Here’s a table summarizing recent Super Bowl winners, their opponents, and the betting odds for the winners before the game. These odds reflect the balance of power as perceived by oddsmakers and bettors prior to kickoff.
| Year | Winner | Opponent | Score | Pre-Game Odds |
|---|
| 2025 | Kansas City Chiefs | Philadelphia Eagles | 22-40 | +120 |
| 2024 | Kansas City Chiefs | San Francisco 49ers | 25-22 | +110 |
| 2023 | Kansas City Chiefs | Philadelphia Eagles | 38–35 | +105 |
| 2022 | Los Angeles Rams | Cincinnati Bengals | 23–20 | -200 |
| 2021 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Kansas City Chiefs | 31–9 | +140 |
| 2020 | Kansas City Chiefs | San Francisco 49ers | 31–20 | -120 |
| 2019 | New England Patriots | Los Angeles Rams | 13–3 | -140 |
Key Insights
- Underdog Victories: While favourites often win, notable underdog victories, such as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2021, have shocked fans and bettors alike. The Buccaneers’ +140 odds meant significant payouts for those betting on their success.
- Dominant Teams: Teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots have consistently appeared in Super Bowl games, reflecting their dominance in recent NFL history.
Expert NFL Predictions and Betting Tips
Leading up to a matchday, our best tipsters will carefully securitise every possible factor regarding those upcoming matchups. Only after careful analysis of every factor do they come up with their expert NFL picks today.
Our NFL experts have a lot of knowledge about the sport and they follow trends to make informed decisions. They carefully choose the best bets before posting because their success isn’t only in providing a bet, instead, they are trying to win the competition as well.
A quick check of any of our top betting tipsters’ profiles will quickly reveal the total Profit and Yield that each tipster has made to date.
Want to learn more about American Football? Visit the bettingexpert Academy and read our American Football Betting Guide.
Bookmakers For Betting On NFL
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As the Super Bowl draws near, Superbowl betting promos are crafted to captivate interest through a mix of free bets, deposit bonuses, and enhanced odds. These promotions ensure bettors receive some of the best super bowl betting offers available. From risk-free bets to unique betting options, these generous offers not only add excitement but also improve the chances of a successful betting experience. The competitive nature of these promotions makes the Super Bowl an enticing betting opportunity.
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Star ratings are based on our personal opinion of the bookmakers we work with. We also take customer feedback into account in our rankings
All of the top online bookmakers cover NFL betting in depth and provide an excellent range of betting markets, plus consistently strong NFL betting odds.
When choosing an online bookmaker, stick to the well-established big name bookies and be sure that your bookmaker provides these four key elements:
- Consistently Competitive Odds
- A Wide Range Of Betting Markets
- All Major Competitions Covered
- Extensive In-Play Betting Markets
Try and find the online bookmaker that provides the best overall coverage of the NFL. Your bookmaker should provide great odds and a wide range of betting markets. Plenty of in-play betting markets are essential, and if possible, live streaming of NFL games.
To find the ideal bookmaker for your picks, be sure to read our bookmaker reviews.
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