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NFL Picks Against the Spread - NFL Betting Tips

The most popular American football league in the world is full of exciting matches but also full of predictions and betting tips you might find interesting. Our expert tipsters share their NFL picks for each game during the season which you can use for free.

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NFL Picks and Betting Tips

NFL fans have lots of reasons to be excited for the upcoming round, which is just around the corner. First of all, we’re all looking forward to the San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys game. The 49ers are the leading team in the National Conference, whereas the Cowboys rank only two spots below the 49ers. If you want more NFL expert betting tips, our NFL news section is the right place.

NFL Season Start 2023/24

Another clash between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Los Angeles Rams will also shake the NFL ground. Although the Eagles boast better form than the Rams, many experts expect a tough game and a merciless battle in this duel. In addition, the two teams ranking just one behind another, the Titans and the Colts,  will have a matchup this week. 

They have identical win-loss ratios and almost the same total points score. The match brings a fiery atmosphere. This is because there are big chances for it to also bring some new changes in the future standings.

Our NFL predictions think that the spectacular encounter between the 49ers and the Cowboys will be more than a great opportunity for coming up with some tips. The fierce battle and cunning tactics leave room for different types of interesting predictions.

NFL Super Bowl Winner Odds

Each year we get new rookies that can potentially change the faith of lower bracket teams that didn’t perform well last season. But, some of the teams always stay on top like Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, etc. The NFL season 2023/24 ends on February 11 when the Super Bowl will occur.

Winner Odds Skybet Unibet Coral PaddyPower Betfred
Kansas City Chiefs 6 6 6 6 6
Philadelphia Eagles 7 15/2 8 8 7
Buffalo Bills 9 9 9 9 8
San Francisco 49ers 9 9 9 9 8
Cincinnati Bengals 10 10 11 10 9
Dallas Cowboys 12 15 15 12 16
New York Jets 16 18 18 16 16

*Odds are subject to change prior to the start of the competition.

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NFL Potential Winners

Among our free NFL picks, you can find potential league winners, odds, and NFL schedule for the whole year. There are some great rookies this year who can lead their team to the Super Bowl like Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson who are already on top of the list for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Bryce is a QB for the Panthers and Anthony is a QB for the Colts.

There’s a small difference between Kansas and Philadelphia, but every year we have something unexpected happening with one of the teams. A lot of pressure will be on Bengals defense which is also among the top 5 teams this season. The odds are quite low for the rookie quarterback from Panthers even if he’s the leader for the Rookie of the Year Award.

One of the underdogs you can expect great odds on, are Denver Broncos. Even if they are considered an average team, they have signed WR Phillip Dorsett, WR Josh Hammond, and CB Fabian Moreau who are some of the players that can bring value to the team.

Green Bay Packers also made a lot of changes, and released a lot of players but also signed LB Kristian Welch, TE Ben Sims, and LS Matt Orzech. They are definitely some of the teams our experts will include in their free expert NFL picks. Pittsburgh Steelers are also focusing on the offensive team by Bringing Qadree Ollison.

NFL Betting Stats

If you’re thinking of betting on the NFL, a good start is to consider a large sample size of NFL betting stats. This can help you identify historical biases present in the market and advantages for teams in certain situations. Let’s first look at straight up win-loss NFL betting stats. The data reflects NFL game and betting results since the 2003 NFL season.

Straight Up Win-Loss NFL Stats

Below we can see win and loss percentages for teams in certain situations. For example, we can see that home teams win just over 57% of football games. Historically home field advantage has been worth around 3 points, but this has been challenged recently, with many now believing the advantage to be around 2 points. We can also see an advantage for teams coming off a bye week. Teams in such situations have won just over 55% of their games since 2003.

Home Teams 57.4% 42.6%
Away Teams 42.6% 57.4%
Favourites 66.6% 33.4%
Underdogs 33.4% 66.6%
Home Favourites 67.7% 32.3%
Home Underdogs 35.9% 64.1%
Away Favourites 64.1% 35.9%
Away Underdogs 32.3% 67.7%
After A Bye Week 55.1% 44.9%
After A Win 54.0% 46.0%
After A Loss 45.8% 54.2%

Betting Picks Against The Spread (ATS) NFL Stats

When we consider picks against the spread, we can identify a few market biases to consider when betting on NFL games. Firstly, away teams have won just over 51% of bets against the spread since 2003, likewise, underdogs have won almost 51%. As a result, we can see that underdogs playing away games have won against the spread almost 52% of the time. While 52% is not a strike rate to profit given standard bookmaker odds of 1.90 for NFL spread betting, it is certainly a bias to keep in mind. Further, we can see that teams coming off a bye have covered the spread in just over 52% of games.

Home Teams 48.8% 51.2%
Away Teams 51.2% 48.8%
Favourites 49.2% 50.8%
Underdogs 50.8% 49.2%
Home Favourites 48.4% 51.6%
Home Underdogs 49.4% 50.6%
Away Favourites 50.6% 49.4%
Away Underdogs 51.6% 48.4%
After A Bye Week 52.1% 47.9%
After A Win 49.6% 50.4%
After A Loss 50.5% 49.5%

Over Under NFL Betting Stats

When we look at points totals, we can see a distinct bias in games featuring teams from the same division, with those games finishing under the points total line just over 53% of the time since 2003. This can be explained by the fact that divisional teams play each other twice each season and are therefore defensively better prepared than when playing teams out of division. In non division games and non conference g ames, where teams play each other rarely, these games have finished with over the points total line almost 52% of the team. Another bias to keep in mind when betting on NFL points totals.

Conference Games 49.0% 51.0%
Division Games 46.9% 53.1%
Playoff Games 49.2% 50.8%
Non Conference Games 51.7% 48.3%
Non Division Games 51.2% 48.8%
Regular Season Games 49.7% 50.3%

Expert NFL Predictions and Betting Tips

Leading up to an NFL match-day, our best NFL tipsters will carefully securitise every possible factor regarding those upcoming NFL matchups. Only after careful analysis of every factor do they come up with their expert NFL picks.

On this page’s right sidebar, you will see the list of our Top Five NFL Tipsters. At the top of the right sidebar you can see bettingexpert’s current top NFL tip – ranked by virtue of its tipster-rated NFL profitability.

Simply put, this is literally the best NFL tip currently posted by the bettingexpert community, and therefore a highly valuable commodity.

So who are bettingexpert’s NFL tipster community and why are they so good at what they do? First off, they are ordinary people, just like you, but what sets them apart is their thirst for sporting knowledge. Secondly, they love sports betting, so know how great sporting knowledge can result in top NFL tips.
These tipsters come from every continent in the world, and a growing number of them are highly knowledgeable about the NFL. Today our NFL tipster family have years of experience posting NFL picks.

Bettingexpert’s expert NFL tipsters possess the kind of knowledge that can only come when one has a passion for all things NFL related, plus the capacity to store facts, stats and information. Throw in years of experience, and a good tipster will begin to consistently correctly predict the outcome of NFL games.

Bettingexpert’s NFL tipsters will supply tips on a wide selection of NFL betting markets during the American football season including Game Result (or Moneyline), Points Spread, First Half Points Odd/Even, First Touchdown Score, Winning Margin and First Field Goal.

All of our NFL picks have been thoroughly researched. What’s more, they are of course absolutely free. So if you are looking for the very best in free NFL picks, look no further than bettingexpert.

A quick check of any of our top betting tipster’s profiles will quickly reveal the total Profit and Yield that each tipster has made to date. Because of this level of openness and honesty, you know you can trust in our NFL betting advice and free NFL picks.

Want to learn more? Visit the bettingexpert Academy and read our American Football Betting Guide.

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Try and find the online bookmaker that provides the best overall coverage of the NFL. Your bookmaker should provide great odds, a wide range of betting markets and cover the NFL in depth. Plenty of in-play NFL betting markets are essential, and if possible, live streaming of NFL games. The combination of being able to watch a game live, and also bet on the action as it’s happening is the perfect one-two NFL betting combination!

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