How did favourites perform at the London Olympics?
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
Did favourites live up to expectations at London 2012? With the games closed, today on the blog Andrew takes a look at the betting performance of favourites at the London Olympics.
With the London Olympics now concluded, let's take a look at how the favourites performed during the two weeks of competition. In the course of the analysis will be considering the pre-Olympics odds for 120 prominent events including track and field, swimming, cycling, diving, rowing and a range of other sports
Moderate Favourites Deliver
The table below shows the breakdown of performance for favourites by degree of favouritism, betting at single stakes.
|1.49 & less||27||-1.48||-5.48%|
|1.50 to 1.99||42||+4.44||+10.58%|
|2.00 to 2.50||37||+4.95||+13.38%|
|2.51 & greater||14||-1.30||-9.29%|
Over the 120 events in consideration, betting on each of the favourites at single stakes would have returned a profit of 6.61 units, a ROI of 5.51%.
When we take a closer look however, we see that betting on favourites of 1.49 or less at single stakes would have seen you suffer a loss of -1.48 units across 27 events.
Had you bet on only moderate favourites between odds of 1.50 and 2.50, which were the bulk of the events with 79 in the total of 120, you would have enjoyed a profit of 9.39 units, a ROI of 11.89%.
Sport By Sport
So let's break down the numbers further, taking a look at the performance of favourites in the various sports in consideration.
|Men's Track & Field||14||+2.61||+18.63%|
|Women's Track & Field||14||+9.06||+64.72%|
Taking a look at the sport by sport breakdown, we see that it was a great Olympics for those betting favourites in both men's and women's track and field. Betting at single stakes across the 28 events under consideration, you would have claimed a profit of 11.67 units for a ROI of 41.68%. A very tidy two weeks of betting.
In fact betting favourites in all women's events in consideration, a total of 55, would have delivered you a ROI of 17.5% while betting favourites in men's events, a total of 65, returned a negative ROI of -3.92%.
Worst performed of all categories was men's swimming. Betting favourites at single stakes across the 17 events would have seen you suffer a loss of just over 6 unit, a ROI of almost -37%.
The best performed of these categories was observed in women's track and field. Betting favourites at single stakes across the 14 events considered would have given you a very handsome profit of just over 9 units, a ROI of almost 65%.
So the Olympics of London 2012 have come to a close. For favourite backers, it was a successful two weeks. Successful that is if you avoided a focus on short priced favourites tighter than odds of 1.50.
Next up Rio 2016. But before then.........Football! Football! Football! Let's roll.
Odds from BetOnline with thanks to Beyond The Bets
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Thanks Crator. Glad you enjoyed it. Yes, some surprising numbers when they're broken down.
No surprise swimming is the sport with most upsets of the Olympics. Winners often do it by <0.5seconds, and at that point... well, luck factor obviously increases. On the other hand, I'd like to note that "Men's Other" would be highly positive if only... Well, there were many "strange" decisions by the referees on both Wrestling and Boxing, preventing favourites to advance when they should have. Might have happened on other sports too, or the other way around, but I don't know about that. Good writeup Andrew, some figures were very surprising.
Not much of a spreadsheet. Just compiled each of the favourites taken from the article linked at the bottom of the piece from Beyond The Bets. http://beyondthebets.com/olympics-results-favorites-dominated-summer-games-but-12-huge-underdogs-
can you share detailed excel or db you used, not that the summary is not...
Thanks Zeljko. Appreciate the feedback. Was an enjoyable Olympics for punters and non-punters alike. Hope you're all set for the upcoming football season. Cheers.