Expect Match Fixing in This Weekend’s Serie A

There is rarely smoke without fire. Suspicious odds and bookmakers suspending bets indicate something is off in this weekends Serie A. The match between Chievo and Sampdoria meets most criterias for a fixed match.

Bookies Suspend Betting

It is no secret that bookmakers are profitable because of randomness in outcomes. When they detect suspicious trading patterns they will therefore close down a market to avoid loses. When bookmakers suddenly don’t offer betting on a certain match, something might be wrong.

Only 7 bookmakers accept bets on the match at this point. In comparison, 40 bookmakers offer bets at the Napoli vs Lazio match in the same round which is about the normal number of bookmakers offering Serie A games.

Serie A

The Odds Are Off

The average odds on a draw are at the moment 1.49 according to Betbrain. Odds on a draw usually range from 3 to 3.5 on Serie A games. Chievo currently rank as number 11 in the Italian league and Sampdoria is number 16. Hence, the team’s position in the league does not suggest a draw would benefit either team.

Betting Industry is Concerned

Sources from professional betting syndicates in the UK contacted me and pointed out that Chievo vs. Sampdoria has all the ingredients for a fixed match. I’ve contacted an Asian colleague who is a major player in the industry. He said, he has little doubt the match is dirty.

The matter does not seam to be orchestrated by professional match fixers. When criminal syndicates try to fix matches you will often see suspiciously large bets on the day of the match since the criminals have an interest in a pot as big as possible. In this case, odds have decreased in an irrational way for a longer time suggesting that rumors of match fixing got out early.

The graph above shows price development chart on draw in Chievo vs. Sampdoria. To compare, the other chart shows the normal progress in a draw market. In this case it is the AC Milan – Inter match played in the same round. The total sum traded in the draw market on the Chievo – Sampdoria match is around 560,000€ compared to only around 28,000€ played on a draw in AC Milan – Inter.

Source: Betfair.com

Source: Betfair.com

The chart shows all the money placed on draw on Betfair in this week's Serie A matches. It shows how much the Chievo – Sampdoria make up of all bets on draw in Serie A this week. Note also that Genova vs. Cagliari stands out suspiciously as another match to look out for.

Serie A

Match	Odds on draw	Market (EUR)
AC Milan vs Inter	3,35	5.286
Brescia vs Bologna	4,2	9.938
Catania vs Palermo	3	12.160
Cesena vs Fiorentina	3,2	2.048
Chievo vs Sampdoria	1,65	558.834
Genoa vs Cagliari	2,54	360.719
Lecce vs Udinese	3,75	1.275
Napoli vs Lazio	3,55	2.089
Parma vs Bari	3,95	1.049
Roma vs Juventus	3,55	918
Average	3,27	95.432

NB. this is not an April fools'.

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Hope so!I mean,this is way too much!For some years now we see some "strange" results in the italian football.It's no good for the teams,the fans etc.UEFA should put some pressure on the italian federation to resolve the problem.I think that if this was happening in some other country,one that doesn't have the history and the tradition that Italy have,UEFA was going to do something about it.

Toni

02.06.2011, 23:18 CET

hopefully this episode is going to flush out all the wrong doers in the italian game, its about time this was all put to bed once and for all.

grande

02.06.2011, 22:26 CET

I spotted one in Serie B at the weekend grossetto v Atlanta in a game which should have been a must win game for Atlanta with Siena only a point behind. On the morning of the game most bookmakers stopped offering the Market and the ones which did offered the draw @ 1.80 which is quite extraordinary for a draw, the bookies don't normally get something like this wrong so I back it with £300 and the game finished 1-1, there is definitely something going on throughout the Italian leagues.