What can the odds for a drawn match tell us?

Jul 28th, 2011 - Posted by Andrew_Brocker in Football

bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.

Should we take note of the odds for a drawn match when considering the Over/Under 2.5 goals total? Or perhaps the Over/Under odds when considering backing a draw? Andrew takes a look at the Premier League and attempts to explore the relationship between each.

It's no secret that when there is a drawn match, the Over/Under value is historically with the Under.

Drawn matches by nature, are lower scoring than matches won and lost.

In fact, if you had backed the Under 2.5 goals at single unit 'even stakes' in every drawn Premier League match dating back to 2002, you would have made a profit of just under 371 units for a return of 42%.

Obviously, this isn't much use unless we knew which matches were going to be draws beforehand. But it's fairly clear that when matches are drawn, the value is with the Under.

At the same time, when matches go Under 2.5 goals, the betting value is with a drawn match. Had you bet the Draw in every match that went Under 2.5 goals since 2002, you would have come away with an 'even stakes' profit of just under 706 units, for a return of 40%.

But again (I hear you say)......not much use unless we knew which matches were going to go Under 2.5 goals.

Either way, the correlation between the betting value of the Under and Draw aroused my curiosity, and I decided to start breaking down the odds and see what value trends we could spy.

The odds used date back 9 seasons to the 2002/2003 Premier League campaign. And all odds are average odds from a number of bookmakers, standardised to 'even odds' commission of 1.92. (4%)

When the Under is favoured

We will start by looking at situations where the Under is favoured. We will split the odds in two, and then couple each with Draw odds of a selected range.

The Draw odds range chosen is the mid-point for Draw odds in that given Over/Under range. So for example, when the Under is favoured at odds of 1.72 or lower, 50% of matches in that grouping have Drawn odds above 3.27 and 50% of Drawn odds of 3.27 and below.

Here are our ranges for when the Under 2.5 goals is favoured:

The Under favoured at odds 1.72 and lower with Draw odds above 3.27
The Under favoured at odds 1.72 and lower with Draw odds 3.27 and below
The Under favoured between odds of 1.73 and 1.91 with Draw odds above 3.42
The Under favoured between odds of 1.73 and 1.91 with Draw odds 3.42 and below

Let's look at each group in turn.

When the Under is favoured at 1.72 and below and the Draw is above odds of 3.27, we can see that since 2002, taking the Over has been profitable at single 'even stakes' betting. In fact, it's quite a handsome profit of just over 6% return.

We can also see that in this combination of odds, backing the Draw has been horrendous, leaving you with an 'even stakes' loss since 2002 of over 25%. Nasty. Could well be a situation to consider laying against in the future.

When the Under is favoured at 1.72 and below and the Draw is of odds 3.27 or below, we don't see a lot in terms of Over/Under value. But in terms of Draw value, it's again terrible, leaving you with a loss of almost 15%.

So let's turn our attention to situations where the Under is favoured between odds of 1.73 and 1.91 and the Draw is of odds above 3.42. In this combination we see a slight profit with both the Under and the Draw.

Now let's look at situations where the Under is favoured between odds of 1.73 and 1.91 and the Drawn match odds are of 3.42 and below.

Here again, we see that the Draw gives us a slight profit, while the Under is still achieving a result better than standard bookmaker commission.

When the Over is favoured

Now let's look at situations where the Over 2.5 is favoured. Again, we will split the odds up in two and couple each with Drawn match odds of a selected range.

The Over favoured at odds 1.72 and lower with Draw odds above 5.69
The Over favoured at odds 1.72 and lower with Draw odds 5.69 and below
The Over favoured between odds of 1.73 and 1.91 with Draw odds above 3.82
The Over favoured between odds of 1.73 and 1.91 with Draw odds 3.82 and below

When the Over is favoured at odds of 1.72 and below coupled with Drawn odds above 5.69, we see clear value with both the Under and the Draw, with both making reasonable 'even stakes' profits since 2002. The Draw in this combination achieved a profitable return of over 6%. Something to definately keep in mind.

When the Over is favoured at odds of 1.72 and below in combination with Drawn odds of 5.69 or below, we see are very different story.

In this combination, we see that the Over is of clear value, generating an 'even stakes' profit of over 3%. Meanwhile, both the Under and the Draw were particularly poor, taking losses of around 15% and 22% respectively.

Let's look at situations when the Over is favoured between 1.73 and 1.91 coupled with Drawn match odds above 3.82.

Again, the Over has been profitable at 'even stakes', this time achieving a profit of almost 2% from over 380 matches.

When we look at situations where the Over is favoured between 1.73 and 1.91 with the Draw valued at odds of 3.82 and below, we don't see much in terms of Over/Under value. What we do see is that in this situation, the Draw has been of poor value, taking a loss of almost 17% since the 2002 Premier League season.

When the Over/Under is 'even money'

Lastly, we will look at situations where the Over/Under 2.5 goals is even money or thereabouts. Again we will couple Over/Under odds with two ranges of Drawn match odds.

When the Over/Under is between 1.87 and 1.98 either way with Draw odds above 3.56
When the Over/Under is between 1.87 and 1.98 either way with Draw odds of 3.56 or below

So let's firstly then look at 'even money' Over/Under odds when the Drawn match odds are above odds of 3.56.

Here we see that the Over has generated a slight profit since 2002, while the Under and Draw have given reasonable losses, but nothing to shine too much of a light on.

When we look at 'even money' Over/Under situations with Draw odds of 3.56 or less, we see that the Drawn has been very good value. Since 2002, backing the Draw in this situation would have given you a profit of over 4% from over 350 matches.

So what did we learn?

In conclusion, let's list some key trends to keep note of as we consider both Over/Under markets and Drawn match markets in the Premier League in season 2011/2012.

As always, I stress, don't simply attempt to follow these trends blindly. Use them rather as part of the foundation of your overall betting analysis.

When to consider taking Over 2.5 goals

Strongly consider taking the Over 2.5 goals in matches where the Under is favoured 1.72 and below with Drawn match odds above 3.27.
Strongly consider taking the Over 2.5 goals in matches where the Over is favoured 1.72 and below with Drawn match odds of 5.69 or lower.
Consider taking the Over 2.5 goals in matches where the Over is favoured between odds of 1.73 and 1.91 with Drawn match odds above 3.82.

When to consider taking Under 2.5 goals

Consider taking the Under 2.5 goals in matches where the Under is favoured between 1.73 and 1.91 with Drawn match odds above 3.42.
Consider taking the Under 2.5 goals in matches where the Over is favoured at odds of 1.72 or less with Drawn match odds above 5.69.

When to consider backing the Draw

Strongly consider backing the Draw in matches where the Over/Under 2.5 goals is between 1.87 & 1.98 and the Drawn match odds are 3.56 and below.
Strongly consider backing the Draw in matches where the Over is favoured at odds of 1.72 or less and the Drawn match odds are above 5.69.
Consider backing the Draw in situations where the Under is favoured between odds of 1.73 and 1.91 with Drawn match odds of any kind.

When to consider laying against the Draw

Strongly consider laying against the Draw in matches where the Under is favoured 1.72 and below with Drawn match odds above 3.27.
Strongly consider laying against the Draw in matches where the Over is favoured 1.72 and below with Drawn match odds of 5.69 or below.
Consider laying against the Draw in matches where the Under is favoured 1.72 and below with Drawn match odds of 3.27 or below.
Consider laying against the Draw in matches where the Over is favoured between 1.73 and 1.91 with Drawn match odds of 3.82 or below.

Click here for the BettingExpert 2012/2013 Football Stats Guide. Detailed stats for the 8 biggest leagues of Europe.

You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert

If you enjoyed this article, you might also like:

Which Premier League clubs were the best betting value in 2010-2011?

What is home field advantage really worth?

Should you bet on newly promoted clubs?

The Top 5 Football Podcasts

Which clubs play better at home in the Premier League?

You must be logged in to post a comment! Sign up + or log in in the top right corner.

@Marspin. Thats something I will be looking at in the future. It's hard to say without doing some analysis whether these sorts of trends would cross over to other leagues, as each league is it's own animal.

Andrew_Brocker

20.08.2011, 07:49 CET

Hi,i just wanted to ask if the very good details which you present in this article,are only good for the Premiership?