7-4 to Lay, 9-4 to Play : The importance of pricing up

May 29th, 2012 - Posted by Stephen_Harris in Betting Theory, Horse Racing

Racing Editor for bettingexpert. Always searching for winners "against the crowd" and trying to find the value.

When should you take note of a price movement and when should you resist the temptation to follow the crowd? Today on the blog Stephen tells us why we should determine our own prices and stick with them.

BayernLose

There have been thousands of superb judges of form who have failed to successfully bet for a living and the main reason is a failing to translate these opinions into accurate prices. So many punters fall into the trap of "fancying" selections and betting them regardless of the price. Often they see their choice shortening in price and follow the crowd in snapping up a lesser price so as not to miss out.

I often found when betting on-course myself that a contraction in price on the board, i.e from 2-1 into 7-4 could cause a stampede in punters racing in anxious not to miss out. Often these punters would have a 700-400 something that they have been staring at 2-1 for five minutes. It is a "herd" mentality feeling that is a big failing in many....they need to have the support of a crowd to reinforce their own view before having a bet.

Many years ago on the rails at racecourses in England the bigger layers would bluff bets that hadn't actually been struck to try and lure people in. One bookie even had a telephone by the joint. He would answer it and call out huge fictional bets to give the impression a big owner was betting his own horse. These sharp practices are a thing of the past now but the same theories stand firm in the modern internet age. Often the shortening of a price triggers more cash to contract the price further still.....with exchanges this is clearly visible to all.

The only way to avoid falling into the trap of chasing down prices is to price up everything you are possibly going to have a bet in. The percentage chance of all the runners must add up to the perfect 100. This gives the shrewd punter a structure in which to base all his betting, he becomes purely a price-related bettor and removes all the bad temptations of "fancying" horses and chasing down lesser prices.

For example he prices a three horse race up EVENS , 3-1, 3-1 (100%).....later on the Betfair prices settle around 4-6, 3-1, 5-1....the "value" is clearly in betting the 5-1 chance. Lesser punters who "fancied" the favourite are happy to row in with the crowd and pile in at 4-6 regardless. As professional punter Alan Potts famously wrote "only those who go against the crowd have any chance of long term successful betting".

I have seen this herd mentality in spread betting in particular. Here punters are willing to pay very high levels to get with favourites. For example Man United are 1-5 favourites to win against lower league rivals. Punters believe they will win and pay a big premium for "buying" their goalscorer shirts/supremacy etc etc , without realising these prices are hugely inflated already, with traders anticipating the herd mentality that Man Utd are "certainties".

With Betfair now dominating the racing prices, this over betting of favourites is happening more and more, fuelled by traders anticipating price movements usually in a downward direction. The need to price up oneself is even more pronounced. As another pro punter Clive Holt described in page 1 of his excellent book "Winners Back Winners"..."any astute bettor must approach any race with the view.... 7-4 to lay and 9-4 to play".

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If you bet, you must know for what you betting. Discipline is one of the most important thing.

z00mass

18.07.2012, 21:36 CET

@ The Game: I know man! I am reading his articles daily from some time and I kind of got the love for horses betting. @Stephen I think I did something wrong here, in expressing the odds. Can you help me please! http://www.bettingexpert.com/tip/156184-Punchestone-19:55-Buy-Back-Bob#33139

sportbetting77

30.05.2012, 22:37 CET

Sportsbetting77 Stephen is the man to learn from..

TheGame

30.05.2012, 21:51 CET

Stephen I thing I have learned something from you and I would like to thank you! Of course, the discipline is what is making the difference between men, I hope I can hold my temper also from now on and remain disciplined!

sportbetting77

30.05.2012, 21:10 CET

Brilliant mate.. Thanks

TheGame

29.05.2012, 18:06 CET

What do you fancy here? is always the wrong question in betting. We should always be trying to price things up and bet accordingly. It is easier said than done of course, and we all have far too many "interest" bets where we do not have any edge at all. I suppose this on-going battle is what makes betting so interesting, and the fact it is rarely discussed much! (apart from on BettingExpert of course!!)

Stephen_Harris

29.05.2012, 15:59 CET

Doesnt matter what your betting interest is, football, racing or whatever, getting into the habit of pricing up is key to developing your betting brain. Can be hard work, but well worth it.