Wimbledon Men's Final 2012 - The Betting Charts
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
With the 2012 men's final at Wimbledon done and dusted, today on the blog Andrew takes a look at how the odds shapred during Roger Federer's win over Andy Murray.
Wimbledon 2012 concludes with Roger Federer once again showing his class against a determined Andy Murrey to claim yet another Wimbledon championship. Let's then take a look at how the odds shapes through what was at times an epic matchup.
The chart above shows the odds for both Federer and Murray as the 2012 Men's final proceeded. The odds are displayed as their implied probability for both players as we entered that particular game of the match. e.g Odds of 2.00 reflect a 50% chance of that outcome happening.
As we can see Federer opened the match at odds of 1.50 (66.7%) to claim another Wimbledon crown, while crowd favourite Murray was seeking attention at 2.98 (33.6%).
Those opening prices would soon be short lived as Murray would break Federer's opening service game, sending Murray into odds of 2.36 (42.4%) while Federer fell out of favour to 1.72 (58.1%). These prices would remain pretty much constant heading into the 4th game of the set, in which Federer would break back, sending us back to pre-match prices.
Murray would fall out to as much as 3.15 (31.8%) heading into the 8th game. But the opening set would turn once again as Murray breaks Federer's serve in the 9th game to take a 5-4 lead serving for the set.
Murray would hold serve and we would enter the 2nd Set of the match at virtually even money.
Players would hold serve throughout the 2nd Set and heading into the 11th game, with the players tied 5-5 and Federer on serve, Murray would be his shortest price for the match, trading at 1.83 (54.6%) to become the 2012 Wimbledon champion.
But Federer would hold serve and then break Murray in the 12th game to claim the 2nd Set.
So we would enter the 3rd set with the players tied 1 set each. Entering the 1st game of the 3rd Set, Federer had returned to confirmed favourite status trading at 1.55 (64.5%) while Murray was looking for love at 2.80 (35.7%).
Both players would hold serve until the 6th game where Federer would break Murray and as a result see his price clipped into 1.21 (82.6%). Federer would then hold his serve and take a 2 sets to 1 lead heading into the 4th Set.
As we entered the 4th Set, Federer was trading at 1.19 (84.0%). And in the 5th game of the set, Federer would break Murray again, as a result his price would come into a close to unbackable 1.05 (95.2%). The rest would be history as Roger Federer would hold on to win yet another Wimbledon title.
Federer A Champion Again
So Roger Federer wins another Wimbledon crown. He opened the tournament at around 5.70 (17.5%), third favourite behind both Djokovic and Nadal. By the time we reached the Final 16, he was 4.25 (23.5%) with Djokovic still favourite at even money. Heading into their semifinal showdown, Federer was looking for attention at odds of 4.90 (20.3%) to become the 2012 Wimbledon champion.
For Andy Murray, the fairytale ride would take him all the way to the final. He opened the tournament at around 15.00 to become Wimbledon champion and by the Final 16, he was trading at 6.75 (14.8%). Heading into his semifinal with Tsonga, Murray could still be taken at odds of 5.30 (19%).
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