Wimbledon 2013 Betting Stats And Analysis

Where is the betting value at Wimbledon this year? The third Grand Slam of the year is just a few days away and today on the blog we take a look at the betting and match trends from recent tournaments, providing you with a guide for your Wimbledon betting in 2013.

Wimbledon2010

Wimbledon begins next week. And once again I thought I would take the opportunity to deliver my betting trends for this year's tournament. As with previous editions of my Grand Slam betting breakdowns, the data has been compiled from the last five Wimbledon tournaments, from 2008 to 2012.

So, let's get into it.

How Often Do Favourites Win At Wimbledon?

Let's begin by looking at how favourites have performed in the last five Wimbledon tournaments. In particular let's consider the question, how often have favourites won at Wimbledon?

Mens Favourites At Wimbledon

The table below presents the performance of mens favourites at Wimbledon through the last five tournaments. As previously, favourites have been divided into 6 price ranges, from "sure things" at odds of 1.01 to 1.10 all the way up to contests approaching "even money" between odds of 1.76 and 1.91. The Return On Investment (ROI%) assumes betting at 'even stakes' for each outcome. What is betting a 'even stakes'? Well as an example, if we had bet £1 on each favourite at odds between 1.21 and 1.35 over the last Wimbledon tournaments, we would have made a profit of £1.33, a ROI% of +1.24%.

Odds RangeFavourite WinsUnderdog WinsFavourite ReturnUnderdog ReturnFavourite ROI%Underdog ROI%
1.01 - 1.10 140 7 -0.33 -65.82 -0.22% -44.78%
1.11 - 1.20 85 16 -3.57 -12.59 -3.53% -12.47%
1.21 -1 .35 85 22 +1.33 -22.30 +1.24% -20.84%
1.36 - 1.50 66 21 +6.43 -25.69 +7.39% -29.53%
1.51 - 1.75 76 45 +2.20 -14.11 +1.82% -11.66%
1.76 - 1.91 21 18 -0.47 -2.65 -1.21% -6.79%

As we saw in recent French Open tournaments, we can see that mens favourites have performed very well at Wimbledon over the last five years. If we assume standard bookmaker commission of 4.5%, favourites in each price range have outperformed market expectations with favourites between odds of 1.21 to 1.75 earning a profit at even stakes, with two of the remaining three price ranges nearing breakeven.

We should also note that underdogs opposing favourites in the range of 1.01 to 1.10 have performed very poorly at recent Wimbledons. If you had unfortunately bet at even stakes against every favourite in the range of 1.01 to 1.10 in the last five mens tournaments, you would have taken a loss of near on 66 units across the 147 matches played, a regrettable ROI% of -44.78%.

While it's not wise to follow such trends blindly year in year out, we can see that as with recent French Open tournaments, bookmakers have found it difficult to price the elite players at short enough odds at Wimbledon across the last five years.

Womens Favourites At Wimbledon

When we turn to the women's tournament, again we see that short priced favourites have performed beyond standard bookmaker commission of 4.5%. Backing favourites between odds of 1.01 to 1.20 would have seen you earn an even stakes profit of +0.63 units, a ROI% of +0.29%, while betting against such favourites would have seen you suffer a loss at even stakes of -81.55 units, a ROI% of -37.75%.

Odds RangeFavourite WinsUnderdog WinsFavourite ReturnUnderdog ReturnFavourite ROI%Underdog ROI%
1.01 - 1.10 100 5 +0.26 -51.90 +0.25% -49.43%
1.11 - 1.20 97 14 +0.37 -29.65 +0.33% -26.71%
1.21 -1 .35 98 33 -5.63 -4.74 -4.30% -3.62%
1.36 - 1.50 67 34 -5.46 -2.57 -5.41% -2.54%
1.51 - 1.75 68 59 -17.70 +11.61 -13.94% +9.14%
1.76 - 1.91 23 23 -3.86 +0.48 -8.39% +1.04%

Unlike the mens tournament however, we see that underdogs have performed much better, with underdogs facing opponents at odds of 1.21 all the way to 1.91 performing above bookmaker expectations. In fact betting against favourites of odds between 1.51 and 1.91 would have seen you collect a profit of +12.09 units across 173 matches for a ROI of just under 7%.

Over/Under Game Totals

Now we will turn to match analysis, firstly considering the number of games we can expect to see through the tournament. We will begin with the mens.

Game Totals For The Mens

The table below presents the median number of games for matches featuring favourites of different price ranges in the mens tournament over the last five Wimbledon tournaments. As we should perhaps expect, the total number of games played generally increases as favouritism deteriorates, with 30 games typically played when favourites between 1.01 and 1.10 are victorious. We see however, that when favourites between odds of 1.21 all the way to 1.91 have won, the number of games for a match has typically held within the 38 to 40 game range. On the other hand, when favourites have lost, we see the match typically travel upwards of 41 games. If we're betting on an underdog to cause a major upset, we shouldn't expect them to do so in brisk fashion.

FavouritesGames When WinningGames When Losing
1.01 - 1.10 30 44
1.11 - 1.20 34 42
1.21 -1 .35 38 43
1.36 - 1.50 40 43
1.51 - 1.75 38 41
1.76 - 1.91 38 41

Game Totals For The Womens

Again as with the mens, the number of games typically played increases steadily as favouritism diminishes. We see that when favourites at odds of 1.01 to 1.10 have won, they typically do so in a mere 18 games, with favourites of odds 1.11 to 1.35 doing so in just 19 games. But as we saw with the French Open, the trend isn't so clear when underdogs have won. We can put this down to the small sample size of upset results. However it is still worth noting that the trend for length of matches when upsets have occurred, particularly in games played has not been as evident as was with the men in recent Wimbledon tournaments.

FavouritesGames When WinningGames When Losing
1.01 - 1.10 18 20
1.11 - 1.20 19 21
1.21 -1 .35 19 23
1.36 - 1.50 20 23
1.51 - 1.75 21 23
1.76 - 1.91 24 24

Over/Under Number Of Sets Played

We will now continue considering the length of typical contests at Wimbledon, now looking at the number of sets we can expect to see. Again, let's begin with the mens.

Number Of Sets Played When Mens Favourites Win

As we saw with the number of games played, we see that the expectation for a longer contest increases as favouritism decreases. Although the results are somewhat inconsistent, we can see that the expectation of a match with a favourite of odds 1.01 to 1.10 victorious extending to 5 sets has been significantly less than when favourites between 1.11 and 1.91 have won. We can also see that the likelihood of a match ending in a mere 3 sets diminishes as favouritism diminishes.

Favourites3 Set Matches4 Set Matches5 Set Matches
1.01 - 1.10 64.29% 30.00% 5.71%
1.11 - 1.20 54.12% 25.88% 20.00%
1.21 -1 .35 43.53% 32.94% 23.53%
1.36 - 1.50 42.42% 31.82% 25.76%
1.51 - 1.75 36.84% 43.42% 19.74%
1.76 - 1.91 52.38% 28.57% 19.05%

Number Of Sets Played When Mens Favourites Lose

The table below displays the length of matches in terms of sets played when mens favourites have lost. We can see that the results are somewhat inconsistent, but the general trend has been for matches to extend beyond 3 sets when underdogs have won.

Favourites3 Set Matches4 Set Matches5 Set Matches
1.01 - 1.10 28.57% 28.57% 42.86%
1.11 - 1.20 43.75% 25.00% 31.25%
1.21 -1 .35 13.64% 59.09% 27.27%
1.36 - 1.50 33.33% 28.57% 38.10%
1.51 - 1.75 31.11% 37.78% 31.11%
1.76 - 1.91 16.67% 44.44% 38.89%

Number Of Sets Played When Womens Favourites Win

Here we can see that the likelihood of a contest in the womens tournament extending beyond two sets to a third set decreases greatly as favouritism decreases. In recent Wimbledon tournaments, the chances of a favourite of odds 1.01 to 1.10 winning in a deciding third set is just over 19%, with close to 81% finishing the task in a mere two sets.

Favourites2 Set Matches3 Set Matches
1.01 - 1.10 81.00% 19.00%
1.11 - 1.20 73.20% 26.80%
1.21 -1 .35 77.55% 22.45%
1.36 - 1.50 68.66% 31.34%
1.51 - 1.75 64.71% 35.29%
1.76 - 1.91 39.13% 60.87%

Number Of Sets Played When Womens Favourites Lose

On the other hand, the chances of an underdog winning in just two sets is far less than those of a favourite. When favourites of 1.01 to 1.10 have suffered an unexpected loss, the match has finished in 3 sets 40% of the time, while in matches where favourites between 1.21 and 1.91 have lost, matches ended in 2 sets roughly 55% of the time.

 

Favourites2 Set Matches3 Set Matches
1.01 - 1.10 60.00% 40.00%
1.11 - 1.20 71.43% 28.57%
1.21 -1 .35 57.58% 42.42%
1.36 - 1.50 52.94% 47.06%
1.51 - 1.75 55.93% 44.07%
1.76 - 1.91 52.17% 47.83%

A Matter Of Class

So we will now conclude our Wimbledon analysis by looking at how players of different classes have performed when opposing players outside of their class. I have categorised players into six classes based on their current world rankings at the time the tournament was played in the following way:

Class A : Players ranked between 1 and 5.

Class B : Players ranked between 6 and 15.

Class C : Players ranked between 16 and 30.

Class D : Players ranked between 31 and 60.

Class E : Players ranked between 61 and 100.

Class F : Players ranked 101+

Following these classifications, the charts below display the winning percentages when players from particular classes have played one another over the last five Wimbledon tournaments. While these class divisions are too broad to offer any precise insight into the likelihood of one player winning over another, it is hoped that as with all the data provided in this analysis, it offers a general guide as to what we may expect throughout Wimbledon match by match.

Mens Class vs Class Performance

The table below displays the winning percentage when players of different classes have met through the mens tournament. As we could have expected, the probability of the superior player increases as the distinction in world ranking widens. This is clearly evident in the example of players of Class B. When opposing players of Class A, they have won just over 23% of the time, when opposing Class C opponents their win rate elevates to 58%, then just over 68% against players of Class D, near on 73% against players of Class E and 100% when opposing players of Class F.

 Class AClass BClass CClass DClass EClass F
Class A   76.92% 94.12% 91.67% 89.29% 83.33%
Class B 23.08%   58.33% 68.42% 72.92% 92.00%
Class C 5.88% 41.67%   52.63% 75.00% 87.23%
Class D 8.33% 31.58% 47.37%   66.67% 76.92%
Class E 10.71% 27.08% 25.00% 33.33%   63.16%
Class F 16.67% 8.00% 12.77% 23.08% 36.84%  

When players of the same class have met, the winning percentage for the higher ranked of the two players has been 51.09% the last five Wimbledon mens tournaments.

Womens Class vs Class Performance

Similar to the mens, we see the likelihood of a superior player overcoming their opponent generally increases as the distinction in world ranking extends. For example, players of Class D have as we should anticipate, struggled against Class A opponents, winning 12.5% of matches the last five Wimbledon tournaments. The chances of Class D players claiming victory increases significantly against Class B opponenets to just over 27%, leaping to near on 44% against Class C players, 58% when opposing Class E talent and lastly winning near on 67% of contests against Class F opposition.

 Class AClass BClass CClass DClass EClass F
Class A   41.67% 92.31% 87.50% 84.62% 91.30%
Class B 58.33%   70.00% 72.73% 75.00% 88.89%
Class C 7.69% 30.00%   56.10% 79.59% 78.57%
Class D 12.50% 27.27% 43.90%   58.49% 66.67%
Class E 15.38% 25.00% 20.41% 41.51%   63.04%
Class F 8.70% 11.11% 21.43% 33.33% 36.96%  

When players of the same class have met, the winning percentage for the higher ranked of the two player has been 54.00% the last five Wimbledon womens tournaments.

Final Thoughts

While the stats and trends presented in this analysis are broad and of general value, it's hoped they offer you a guide for betting this year's Wimbledon as each round of the tournament progresses.

For more betting advice for Wimbledon 2013, read the Sultan's detailed guide to betting and trading this year's Wimbledon. It is an absolute must read for anyone hoping to come away with a profit this year.

 

 

Looking for the best Wimbledon betting tips? Be sure to check our Tennis Betting Tips Board throughout the tournament. And if you're wondering which tipsters are the best to follow, check the active tips of our Top 25 most profitable tennis tipsters.