Andrew's Reading List
Who was Archie Karas? How do Champions League match impact club form? What on Earth are the 5 Degrees of losing a bet? Today on the blog Andrew lists some of the articles he's enjoyed writing most over the last couple of years and some you might have missed that might help you improve your betting returns.
I'm currently on a “post-NFL” “mid-European football” “pre-NBA playoff” break right now. As you read this I'm likely sunning myself on one of our many glorious beaches here in Australia or trekking through the wondrous highlands enjoying our wealth of curious nature.
Ok, the truth is it's actually more likely I'm laying on the couch checking Pinnacle odds on my phone listening to my girlfriend tell me that I “need to get a hobby”. Bah!
I'll be back in a week or so, but in the meantime, I thought I would put together a reading list of the articles I've most enjoyed writing for the bettingexpert blog in the almost two years I've been editor here. Yes, this is pure self promotion. Enjoy!
Oh and if you'd like me to update or expand upon any of these pieces or any of the other analysis articles I've put together, or if you have a question you'd like me investigate, let me know in the comments section below and I'll get on it.
How Do Champions League Fixtures Impact Domestic Form? - December 2011: In this piece I conduct a league by league analysis assessing club form against the odds following Champions League commitments. How does teams perform following a win? After travel? When playing at home following a Champions League game? The results might surprise you.
Why Only The Best Price Is Worth Your Money - May 2011: Another early piece for bettingexpert, discussing the nature of bookmaker commission and how even a slightly improved commission rate can have a massive impact on your overall success.
Over/Under Betting Value Across Different Sports – An Analysis - July 2012: Do European bettors exhibit different betting habits than their North American counterparts? In this piece I take a look at over/under betting results to determine if North American sports bettors have a tendency of betting the 'Over' more than European football bettors. Includes a brief rant on the issue of “consumption-based” betting.
When Is The First Goal Scored In The Premier League? - December 2011: What are the chances that a Premier League match will reach halftime without a goal as time elapses? What are the chances the home team will score first as time heads toward the half? I looked at 3 seasons worth of time of goal data to find out.
Early Season Favourites After Major Tournaments - August 2012: Sean Ingle posed a theory that domestic clubs that featured a higher number of elite footballers may struggle to meet expectations following a close season featuring a major international tournament. So following Euro 2012 and in the lead up to the 2012/2013 season, I decided to conduct an analysis.
The 5 Degrees Of Losing A Bet - June 2011: Losing and learning how to lose is an important part of becoming a long-term bettor. It's going to happen and the longer you do it the more you realise that not all losses are the same. In this piece I introduce you to the 5 levels of bet losing.
How To Develop An Intuitive Sense For Value - April 2012: Betting success is all about finding value situations. In this piece I offer six practises that can help you sharpen your eye and mind for identifying betting value. It takes time, persistence and experience, but it's experience well earned.
How To Gamble $50 Into $40million....And Lose It All - June 2011: Have you ever heard of Archie Karas? Well Archie took $50 and went on one of the most famous and perhaps infamous winning streaks in Las Vegas history, turning his initial $50 into $40million. Oh and he lost it all.
Home Advantage In The Premier League As Time Elapses - February 2012: How does home field advantage in a Premier League match diminish as time elapses in a match? How does the winning probability of the home club shorten as we head closer to fulltime? Home field advantage is always a curious topic for myself. This was a piece I very much enjoyed putting together.
Premier League Home and Away Form Analysis - July 2011: During the 2011 Premier League close season, I decided to break down the home and away performance of each Premier League club from 2000 to the end of the 2010/2011 season. I looked at points won, winning percentages, shot ratios, shot on target ratios, shot conversion ratios, betting performance and much more.
How Much Of Your Bankroll Should You Bet? - May 2011: The first piece I wrote for bettingexpert, looking at different bankroll management strategies. If you're wondering how to manage your money and how to best protect your bankroll while making the most of identified value, you'll enjoy this one.
How Often Do Clubs Come From Behind At Halftime? - August 2011: I took a look at how often Premier League clubs overturn halftime deficits, breaking down all the numbers for the previous ten seasons, categorising performance by pre-match odds ranges. Definitely a piece for those of you interested in in-play trading of the Premier League. Oh and I updated the piece recently for the current Premier League season.
Who Wins A NBA Game When It Goes Into Overtime? - January 2012: How often do home teams win when a NBA game heads into the extra period? How often do short priced favourites go on to win? Do underdogs have a good chance of winning overtime contests? I broke down 10 seasons of NBA betting data to assess the chances.
Who Wins The Deciding Set In Men's Tennis? - September 2011: How often does the player that wins the 4th set win the 5th set? In this piece I took a look at 10 years worth of men's tennis numbers to determine which player is more likely to win the deciding set. One for those of you keen on betting tennis in-running.
Key Numbers In NFL Line Betting - October 2011: A crucial aspect of successful NFL handicap betting is understanding key numbers. What are key numbers? They're the margin that NFL games most often end on. Understanding that a half point off a +3 line is more significant a half off a +5 line is key to long-term NFL line betting success.