Should you bet on relegated clubs?
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
How do clubs that have been relegated to the lower ranks perform against the odds? When should you bet on them? Or against them? As the 2011/2012 football season gets into full swing, Andrew takes a closer look at the numbers and finds some angles and trends to consider this season.
A month or so ago, I took a look at how clubs promoted to the top flight of major European football leagues perform in terms of betting value.
This week I decided to look at clubs heading in the opposite direction and consider how the clubs relegated from the top flight perform in terms of betting value when they find themselves in the lower leagues.
Are there situations where relegated clubs have been better value than standard bookmaker commission? Do they perform better against the odds at home or away from home?
How about clubs that have been regular performers in the lower ranks? Do they perform better in terms of betting value than clubs that have found themselves rarely demoted from the top flight?
In this article we will be looking at how relegated clubs have performed when they have fallen from the top flight of English, Spanish, Italian and German football competition, in an attempt to answer the question - Should you bet on relegated clubs?
Relegated clubs at home
Let's start by looking at how relegated clubs perform at home when they arrive in the second tier of competition. We will be betting single unit 'even stakes' on all possible outcomes with average bookmaker odds standardised to 4% commission.
We can see that in both the English Championship and Italian Serie B, if you had bet against relegated clubs at home the last 5 seasons, you would have made a handsome profit of around 4-5%, while in Bundesliga 2, clubs visiting relegated clubs have performed above standard 4% bookmaker commission, achieving a loss of just over 3%.
The only league of the 4 in this analysis that defied this trend was the Spanish Segunda where we see that betting on the draw in matches featuring relegated clubs playing at home would have seen you earn just over 3% profit the last 5 seasons.
Relegated clubs playing away
Now let's turn to relegated clubs playing away from home.
We can see here that the English Championship, Serie B and Bundesliga 2 again follow a similar trend, in this case, relegated clubs have been good value to bet on when playing away from home the last 5 seasons.
We can also see that betting on the draw in these leagues when relegated clubs have played away from home has been quality value. With the value on both the draw and win, laying against the home club in this situation might be worth considering.
We also see that once again, the Spanish Segunda is doing it's own thing, in this case showing value for the home club coming up against relegated clubs. Had you bet at 'even stakes' on home clubs in this situation the last 5 seasons, you would have cleared a very tasty profit of over 8%.
Clubs relegated after 1 or 2 seasons
Now let's look at some broad cross league trends. We will firstly be looking at clubs that have been relegated after just 1 or 2 seasons up in the top flight. We will be considering their betting value at both home and away.
Firstly we can see that clubs quickly relegated from the top flight have been poor value when playing at home across the 4 leagues of analysis.
Had you bet on the away clubs visiting relegated clubs in this situation, you would have made a more than impressive return of over 9% profit. Even betting on the draw in these games would have returned you a loss above standard bookmaker commission with a slight loss.
When we consider these relegated clubs playing away, we see that they have been good value to bet on the last 5 seasons. Betting on them would have given you a loss above standard bookmaker commission of just over 2%, while again, betting on the draw in matches featuring these clubs would have given you a profit of 1.52%.
Clubs in this situation this season
- Birmingham - English Championship
- Blackpool - English Championship
- St.Pauli - Bundesliga 2
- Brescia -Serie B
- Bari - Serie B
- Hercules - Spanish Segunda
Clubs relegated after 3 to 5 seasons
Let's now turn to look at clubs relegated after a stint of 3, 4 or 5 seasons in the top flight.
Home clubs in this situation have shown very poor value at the draw. Betting both on them and against them the last 5 seasons would have seen you achieve a profit. Betting with these clubs would have seen you earn a return of over 6% profit, while betting against them would have given you a reasonable profit of almost 3%.
This of course means that there was tremendous value laying against the draw in this situation. If you had bet on the draw at 'even stakes' the last 5 seasons in matches featuring these relegated clubs, you would have lost almost 21% on your investment.
In away matches we see a similar trend, although not as distinct. Betting both on and against relegated clubs in this situation the last 5 seasons would have given you a loss better than standard bookmaker commission, with the draw value showing a genuine loss of over 6%.
Clubs in this situation this season
- Almeria - Spanish Segunda
Clubs relegated after 6 or more seasons
Finally, let's look at clubs that have been relegated after a genuine stay in the top flight. Here we will be looking at clubs that have been promoted after at least 6 seasons in their nations elite competition.
We can see that at either home or away, the value in matches featuring these clubs has been with the draw. Betting on the draw in home games for these clubs the last 5 seasons would have seen you earn a nice return of over 4% profit, while in away matches the draw delivered value of just over 3%.
We also see that there was tremendous value laying against the opposition in both home and away matches for relegated clubs in this situation. Had you bet on their opposition in home matches the last 5 seasons, you would have given up a loss of over 20% while in away matches that figure was only marginally better with a loss of just over 18%.
Clubs in this situation this season
- West Ham - English Championship
- Ein Frankfurt - Bundesliga 2
- Sampdoria - Serie B
- Deportivo - Spanish Segunda
So what did we learn?
Let's close this trend analysis of relegated clubs by identifying the key points to consider this season.
- Strongly consider betting against relegated clubs in the English Championship and Italian Serie B at home.
- Strongly consider betting on the draw in matches featuring relegated clubs in the Spanish Segunda at home.
- Strongly consider laying against the opposition of relegated clubs playing away in the English Championship, Bundesliga 2 and Serie B.
- Strongly consider betting against relegated clubs playing away in the Spanish Segunda.
- Strongly consider betting against clubs relegated after 1 or 2 seasons playing at home.
- Consider betting the draw in matches featuring clubs relegated after 1 or 2 seasons.
- Strongly consider laying against the draw in matches featuring clubs relegated after 3 to 5 seasons.
- Strongly consider the draw in matches featuring clubs relegated after 6 or more seasons at home.
- Strongly consider laying against the opposition of clubs relegated after 6 or more seasons.
Click here for the BettingExpert 2012/2013 Football Stats Guide. Detailed stats for the 8 biggest leagues of Europe.
You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert
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