Where is the betting value in the U.S Open Mens Tennis tournament?
Jul 25th, 2011 - Posted by Andrew_Brocker in Tennis
bettingexpert blog editor. Always taking the alternative route to finding the value.
Twitter: @AndrewBexpert
Who are the value bets in the 2011 U.S tennis open? Where has the value been traditionally on the men's side of the tournament? Andrew takes his statistical blade to the last 10 U.S Open tournaments and tries to work some angles for you to consider this year.
With a little over a month until the 2011 U.S Open throws down the first serve, I thought it might be an opportune time to go back into the logs and try to assess where the betting value has been the last 10 tournaments.
Where might we be able to find some value this year?
In this article, we will be looking at the mens tournament and will consider each round of play over the last 10 years, dating back to 2001. We'll then be taking a look at overs and unders in both games and sets, assessing averages and probabilities.
First Round
Let's start off by looking at each round of the tournament over the last 10 years, and see where the value has been. We'll be breaking down the odds and seeing how we would have gone had we bet on each possible outcome at 'even stakes.' Odds are based on average odds adjusted to 'even money' 1.92.
We can see that just simply betting on favourites in the opening round the last 10 tournaments, would have seen your make a profit, even though a marginal one. However, betting on favourites between 1.36 and 1.60 would have seen you take away a handsome 5.24% return.
Meanwhile, going against the favourites and betting on Underdogs in the first round would have been disasterous, all up costing you a loss of almost 20%. And had you bet against favourites of 1.20 or less the last 10 tournaments, would have put you in the hole over 70 'even stakes' units, for a return of negative 32%.
Clearly the lesson is, if you're going to go against favourites early, pick your targets shrewdly.
Second Round
Let's now look at 'even stakes' betting in the second round of the U.S Open Mens.
We find a narrow loss overall for favourites in Round 2, and we see an even greater shift toward hot priced favourites. If you had bet on all favourites of 1.35 or less the last 10 U.S Open tournaments, you would have collected around 8 units at 'even stakes' for a profitable return of 4%.
But it's not all one way traffic in round 2. We can see that betting against favourites above 1.60, would have given you a handsoome return of almost 6% profit.
Third Round
In the third round of play, we see a marginal shift in value to the underdogs, although both sides of the odds suffer genuine overall losses.
What is worth noticing is that the value trend in betting against favourites greater than 1.60 that we saw develop in the second round, gains greater momentum. Had you bet against favourites above 1.35 in the third round the last 10 tournaments, you would have taken away almost 18 'even stakes' odds. That's a return of almost 23%.
Short priced favourites between 1.11 and 1.20 were still worth a look, generating a return of over 8% profit. And betting against short priced favourites of less than 1.20 would have once again beem disasterous.
Fourth Round
The fourth round gives us a similar look as the third round.
Again, we see that short priced favourites, this time of 1.35 or less have been good value, while favourites 1.36 and above have been the ones to bet against.
The Finals
When we get to the Quarter-finals and beyond, we see that again the overall value is with the favourites.
If you had bet on each favourite of 1.60 or less at this stage of the tournament the last 10 years, you would have made a profit of around 3.5 'event stake' units for a profitable return of 6%.
Again however, we see that betting against favourites of 1.61 or higher would have generated a handsome profit, and a more than generous return of over 40%.
Round by Round
So, where should we look for the value? Well, it's probably best to stay away from the first round, unless you really feel you have a good hook on a favourite. But leave the underdogs alone.
Let's have a look at the numbers rounds two through four.
We saw these trends develop round after round. And here we can see cleary where the value has been the last 10 years of the mens tournament.
Betting on favourites of 1.35 or less through rounds 2, 3 and 4 would have seen you collect 11 units at 'even stakes' for a return of 3.5%. Meanwhile, betting against favourites between 1.36 and 1.91 would have seen you do very nicely. Betting on these underdogs, you would have come away with over 25 units for a sweet return of 11% profit.
As usual, I wouldn't recommend following these trends blindly. But they're definitely worth noting when you're considering the odds in this years Mens Open.
Average Games
Now for all you Over/Under fans, let's have a look at the average number of games of matches in the Mens tournmanet at the US Open the last 10 years.
Here we will be looking at the average odds of total match games in matches won by favourites and those won by underdogs.
As you might have expected, the average number of games is considerably less when favourites win, as opposed to when the underdogs get over the top of them.
We might want to keep these numbers in mind when considering betting a game 'both ways'. In others words, we might look to back the favourite to win, but also bet the Over on the number of games in the match, looking to hit both, but knowing that should the favourite lose, we could still wel1 win the Over as underdogs typically win in extended matches.
With this in mind, let's break down the number of games further.
Below we can see the Over/Under percentages for the total number of match games when favourites of particular odds win. So for example, when favourites of odds between 1.11 and 1.20 win, 51.87% of those games have ended with the total number of games under 31.5 games.....and so on and so on.
And below, a breakdown of the Over/Under percentages for the total number of match games when favourites of particular odds lose.
Sets per Match
And lastly, let's take a look the breakdown of the number of sets per match given the odds of the favourites depending upon whether they won or lost.
As we would expect, underdogs a more likely to win in matches of 4 or 5 sets in length, than when favourites, and particularly short prices favourites, win.
What did we learn?
In conclusion, let's list some key points to consider when checking the odds for the U.S Open in August.
- Strongly consider short priced favourites of odds between 1.11 and 1.35 in Rounds 2, 3 and 4.
- Strongly consider betting against favourites of odds between 1.36 and 1.91 in Rounds 2, 3 and 4.
- Recognise that matches are typically of longer duration when favourites lose in terms of both sets and games.
You can follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewBexpert
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Thanks for your comments baiazid. Yes, I'll be doing plenty more tennis analysis in the coming months. I'll be looking at players, tournaments, surfaces, game and set totals, all sorts of stuff. As for where I get the data I use on the Blog from, I get it from a number of sources. Some are free and some I paid for. For example, my NFL data cost me over $500. But when I think about how long it would take me to enter all that data manually, its worth the price. Rather than list all the data sources, send me an email andrew@bettingexpert.com with what you're looking for and I'll put you in the right direction.
Hi Andrew ! Great stuff ,really. I have one question though. Where do you get you're numbers from ? I would love to see if there are some trends regarding Over Under 2.5 sets in mathces by player, by surface by odds etc... Can you please tell me what database do you use and how much does it cost ?Per year /month etc... Is there an API or something that gives you access to a betting company's database ? Thanks a lot and keep up the goode work.
Thanks Hundeoara. Ok I'll keep my eye on the Rogers Cup.......and yes, plenty of coffee. Just looked up Djokovic's US Open Stats on my database. Last 3 years, 16 wins - 3 losses. +2 units at 'even stakes'. It might be his year. Good luck with your bet.
PS: Great analysis as always!
@Andrew I allready made a bet on Djokovic to win this tournament because he seems to have the best time form his entire career and US Series will provide us the info we should have into consideration when choosing our favorites. There are a few players that are having good chances to reach in the higher rounds if will not have to deal with injuries: Nadal,Murray, Del Potro, Tsonga, Soderling plus Federer are the main contenders for Djokovic. Still as I said US Series will provide us more info about all the players’ level of playing so let’s prepare our selves with coffee and ….….to stay into the late hours and watch them performing :) Rogers Cup from Montreal will be the first important tournament before US Open as all the top players will be present but until then Del Potro and "the Americans" will practice at Los Angeles and Washington.
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Brilliant again mate, cheers for guiding me in the right direction....