What Were The Odds Of That?


Villa give themselves some breathing room. Favourites dominate in Serie A. And PSG prevail in a heated contest with Evian TG. With the football season either winding down or coming to a crescendo depending on who you support, today on the blog Ed Malyon returns to look over the weekend's football betting across Europe.


While there was one incredibly predictable result this weekend, the rest of the Premier League was littered with unpredictability in a real rollercoaster round of fixtures.

Fulham's defeat at Everton was the game where everyone knew precisely what was going to happen, and the 1.48 average price on the Toffees to win on Saturday had more than some basis in the fact that the Cottagers have lost their last 19 visits to Goodison Park!

Just to put that into perspective, it looks something like this:

L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L, and now it's got another L on the end of it.

Chelsea and Man City also won at short prices.

Considering their brilliant season, West Brom maybe shouldn't have been out at an average mark of 4.76 to win at Southampton this weekend. Nobody could have foreseen the ludicrous card-fest that would ensue (although referee Madley did get them all right) and seemingly nobody could predict the 3-0 scoreline in favour of the visitors, and even fewer would have predicted Aston Villa's 6-1 spanking of Sunderland.

Paolo Di Canio was short of the muddy-kneed celebrations on Monday night and there will be some very happy punters who had money matched at 660.0 on Betfair for the 6-1 correct scoreline.

The Odds: Following Aston Villa's thumping of Sunderland last night, Wigan Athletic have now firmed into odds of 1.40 to be relegated this season.

Odds against

Not a weekend for short price backers in Spain as just one of the four odds-on favourites actually won their games in round 33 of La Liga.

Three of the bottom five won, which contributed to the amount of nicely-priced winners, while in a pleasant moment for symmetry fans the other three wins of the week were for the top five clubs.

Real Madrid are rarely outside 2/1 in domestic games that aren't against Barcelona but with Borussia Dortmund in mind and Atletico's brilliant season, people were steaming into the Calderón side for the latest renewal of the Madrid derby.

Despite Falcao's early goal, Jose Mourinho's men rallied to a 2-1 win, with a best price of 3.84 for the win at kick off.

The Odds: While Mallorca remain anchored to the foot of the table at odds of 1.25 to be relegated, four other clubs remain in contention for the drop. Zaragoza, Celta Vigo and Deportivo are all priced at odds of 1.57 to suffer relegation with Granada at odds of 2.75.


Whereas Spain was all about bigger prices this week, Italy was pretty straightforward with only one result cashing in at outside 2/1 while all five of the odds-on shots obliged.

That five was the top five of the league, and if you add Udinese onto that (whose price was just the other side of evens) then the entire top six won this weekend - which is kind of boring because it means that nothing changes up where it matters.

That sounds kind of disregarding to the relegation battle, where Genoa and Palermo grabbed vital wins to both move above Siena, and with Torino's run of just one point from a possible fifteen, there could be another team dragged back into that scrap at the bottom. For now, Siena and Genoa would join Pescara in Serie B next season - but things would be so different for the former if they hadn't been deducted six points at the start of the campaign.

The Odds: With 68 goals scored so far in season 2012/13, Roma are favourites at odds of 1.67 to finish the Serie A season as highest goalscorers with Juventus on 66 goals at odds of 2.10 and Fiorentina on 65 goals at odds of 5.00.

Seeing rouge

Paris Saint-Germain all but secured their third-ever Ligue 1 title with a win over Evian, but the side from the capital didn’t have a tranquil evening on the shores of Lake Geneva as Evian TG gave them a feisty evening.

The Parisians obliged their 1.56 average price with a simple-enough 1-0 win but they received three red cards, as well as having coach Claude Makelele sent to the stands.

David Beckham’s vicious-looking tackle was punished in the most severe manner despite him making little contact with Youssef Adnane.

Marseille had already done their bit to put pressure on PSG by beating Lorient on Saturday, but it is unlikely to be enough to prevent the Qatari-backed side from taking the title back to the Captital for the first time in twenty-odd years.

The Odds: The battle to avoid the third relegation spot in Ligue 1 is tight with Sochaux on 34 points at odds of 2.38 to be relegated, Evian TG also on 34 points at odds of 2.40 and Nancy on 35 points at odds of 2.75.



Follow Ed on Twitter : @eaamalyon

You can read more of Ed's thoughts at The Mirror

Writer. 23. Mainly DailyMirror & Mirror Football but also Guardian Sport, ESPNFC and Betfair Sports. Surname rhymes with Galleon.