Premier League Home and Away Form Analysis - Part 1
Which clubs in the Premier League are the most consistent in terms of home form and away form? And which clubs form swings violently between games played at home and those played away? Andrew breaks down the numbers for over the last 11 seasons of the Top Flight in English football and tries to answer some of these questions.
Football clubs play better at home in comparison to when they are required to travel. We know it. It's a fact. Whether it's the travel itself, the unfamiliar surrounds or the hostile fans, clubs playing away from home struggle to play with the same flair and conviction that they do on their home turf.
But which clubs have shown the greatest swings between their home form and their away form? And conversely, which clubs have been the more consistent, displaying less of an erratic nature than their opposition?
Following my piece on home field advantage across the 5 major leagues of Europe, I felt compelled to go that one step further and turn my eye to each league. In this, part 1 of the a two part analysis, I will take the number knife to the English Premier League, slice up 11 seasons worth of stats to see which clubs have been more 'moody' in terms of home and away form and which have been more dependable.
Much of this analysis will involve comparing each clubs form at home against their away form in a range of categories. In part 1 we will look at Premiership Points per game, Winning Percentage, Weight of Scores as well as Weight of Scores in the opening half of matches.
The analysis will also only involve clubs that have played in a minimum 5 of the last 11 Premier League seasons, 21 clubs in all.
Firstly, we will look at how each club has performed with regards to average Premiership points earned home as against those earned away.
We can see that Fulham have had the greatest swing between home and away form the last 11 Premier League seasons, of which Fulham have competed in 10. They have averaged 1.66 Premiership table points in their 190 home games through that span, while only averaging 0.76 away from Craven Cottage.
Tottenham have had the second largest swing between home and away form in terms of Premiership points the last 11 seasons, while Wigan has had the smallest swing between home and away form, averaging just 0.40 more Premiership points per game at home.
The league wide average swing towards home form throughout the last 11 Premier League seasons has been 0.605 Premiership points.
We will now turn our attention to have a look at the difference between each club's home winning percentage as opposed to their travelling winning percentage.
Again we see Fulham heading the table with the biggest overall swing in terms of home versus their away Premier League winning percentage through the last 11 seasons. Their winning percentage climbed almost 34% at home as against their away winning percentage through that span.
And we also see Wigan again at the tail end of the table, with their swing between home winning percentage and away winning percentage of 11.40%, over 3% less than their nearest rival Blackburn with 14.74%.
The league wide average swing in home versus average form in terms of winning percentage the last 11 seasons, was 20.36%, with the average home winning percentage standing at 47.15% through that span compared to the average losing percentage of 26.79%.
Home Weight of Scores vs Away Weight of Scores
Here we will look at the percentage of goals scored by the 21 clubs at home compared to their away Weight of Scores this past 11 seasons. By Weight of Scores I am meaning the number of all goals scored by a particular team proportional to the total amounst scored by both clubs in their games. For example, if a club has 120 goals for in a season, and 100 against, their Weight of Scores will be 120 of 220, or 54.5%.
Here we can see Portsmouth, Tottenham and Birmingham all post swings towards their home form of over 20%. For every 100 goals scored in Portsmouth home games across the last 11 Premier League season (of which Portsmouth played in 7), they have scored 53.64 of the goals, while when away from home that figure shrinks to just 32.83 goals out of every 100 scored.
The league wide home Weight of Scores was 58.1% for the last 11 seasons with the away Weight of Scores coming in at 41.9%.
Warming up the crowd
Lastly for part 1, we will look at how teams have performed at home in terms of Weight of Scores as against their away Weight of Scores in the opening half of matches.
We see Birmingham the clear leader in home 1st half Weight of Scores (WoS), clearing their away 1st half WoS by almost 25% over the last 11 seasons. They're followed by a group of 5 teams, led by Southampton, all within 1% point swing of one another.
Most consistent in this category goes to the Gunners of Arsenal whose 1st half form was just shy of 7% better than its away form in terms of Weight of Scores, the last 11 seasons.
The average Weight of Scores for home teams in the first half of games the last 11 Premiership seasons has been 59.1%. This is 1% higher than the full-time WoS in favour of home teams, suggesting perhaps that there is greater advantage to home teams in the 1st half of matches while the opposition adjust to the unfamiliar surrounds.
In part 2 this weekend, we will dig a little deeper and look at the home versus away performances of each club in terms of Weight of Total Shots taken (WoTS) , Weight of Shots on Target (WsonT), Goals for Shot Efficiency (GfSE) and my own Effective Possession Ratings. We will also break down every club and look at their betting value both home and away the last 11 seasons.
You can read part 2 of the analysis here
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